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Topic: ELA Bowl Season Breakdown

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ELA

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ELA Bowl Season Breakdown
« on: December 23, 2021, 01:49:40 PM »
GUARANTEED RATE BOWL
Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (6-6)
Tuesday @ 10:15 - Phoenix, AZ - ESPN
Minnesota returns to a familiar sight, although their previous three appearances happened during a four year span from 2006-2009, in the Insight Bowl incarnation.  While nobody involved with the current Gopher program had anything to do with those teams, you might forgive Minnesota fans if they cringe at the thought of returning.  Minnesota lost all 3 games, which included blowing a 38-7 lead with 7:47 left in the 3rd quarter, for the biggest blown lead in FBS bowl history.  TCU subsequently tied the record in the 2016 Alamo Bowl.  That was a Mike Leach Texas Tech team.  Just about the farthest thing from that is this West Virginia offense, at #73 in the nation in SP+ offense.  They had the worst rushing attack in the Big XII, averaging just 3.5 ypc, and 124 ypg.  Top running back Nick Leddy opting out of the bowl game makes a bad situation worse.  The only other back on the roster with more than 20 carries is Tony Mathis Jr., who showed promise in the final game of the season, at Kansas, getting by far his biggest workload of the season, and finishing with 118 yards on 22 carries.  Jarrett Doege finished the season strong with 6 touchdowns and just one interception in back to back wins to end the season, lifting the 4-6 Mountaineers to bowl eligibility.  But the strength of this Minnesota defense is the secondary, holding opponents to just 55.3% completions, 7th best in the nation, and behind only NC State among Power 5 teams.  The Gopher offense, who knows.  Minnesota has moved on from Mike Sanford Jr., and brought back in Kirk Ciarrocca, whose 2019 Minnesota offense, with Tanner Morgan, was one of the most entertaining offenses to watch in my memory.  After an unsuccessful 2020 at Penn State, he spent this season as an Offensive Analyst at...West Virginia.  He won't be calling plays in the bowl game, but just working with Tanner Morgan again, and what he knows about the Mountaineers can't hurt.
MINNESOTA 26, WEST VIRGINIA 17

PINSTRIPE BOWL
Maryland Terrapins (6-6) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6)
Wednesday @ 2:15 - New York, NY - ESPN
I'm honestly a little surprised Virginia Tech hasn't figured out a way to COVID out of this game.  They already fired their coach, and had six guys opt out of the game, including their starting quarterback.  This from a team that started the year by reaching #15 in the polls, before finishing 4-6.  Those four wins were against an FCS team, the two worst teams in the ACC, and fellow 6-6 Virginia.  Maryland had problems of their own, starting 4-0, with a huge home night national TV broadcast against Iowa.  They got pummeled, but facing (at the time) a bowl elimination season finale, went on the road to Rutgers, and hammered the Scarlet Knights by 24 points.  Expect Virginia Tech to try and establish a ground game, considering aside from Braxton Burmeister, they also had their top receiver opt out, and another enter the portal.  Running back Raheem Blackshear also declared for the Draft, but he is going to play, for an offense that was just #90 in the FBS in total offense WITH those guys.  Connor Blumrick provides more of a rushing threat from the quarterback position as well, appearing in 6 games, and rushing the ball 2.5 times as often as he passed it.  Virginia Tech did average over 225 rushing ypg over the second half of the season, and ran at will in their season ending rivalry win over Virginia, but can they do that with next to no threat of the pass?  Maryland goes as Taulia Tagovailoa goes.  In the Terps' 6 wins, his lowest QBR was 66.5, and he was over 80 in 4 of them, to go with 15 touchdowns and just 1 interception.  In their six losses, his HIGHEST QBR was 57.2, and he had 9 touchdowns with 10 interceptions.  He's going to try to do that against a Hokie secondary who surrendered just 55.8% opponents completion percentage, third best in the ACC.  Ultimately this comes down to two equal-ish teams, one of whom is trying to get some momentum going into their coach's make or break season, against a program where roughly a third of their starters decided not to play, and is without a head coach.  I think Maryland absolutely rolls them.
MARYLAND 35, VIRGINIA TECH 13

MUSIC CITY BOWL
Purdue Boilermakers (8-4) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (7-5)
Thursday @ 3:00 - Nashville, TN - ESPN
This looks to be one of the most underrated quarterback matchups of the bowl season.  Both Hendon Hooker and Aidan O'Connell entered the season in quarterback competitions, and ended the season as clear cut #1's.  Even better, both have confirmed that they will be returning in 2022.  While their team profiles need to be substantially stronger next year to factor into the Heisman race, their absence from the preseason discussion there will have nothing to do with the quarterbacks themselves.  The two biggest stars in this game are not quarterbacks, and unfortunately neither of them will play, in wideout David Bell, who won Big Ten receiver of the year; and George Karlaftis, who, at the end of October was the 1b to Aidan Hutchinson's 1a in terms of best pass rushers in the conference, before Hutchinson really took off down the stretch.  When Ohio State has a handful of NFL guys opt out, they have a bunch of five star talent, albeit inexperienced talent, ready to step up behind them.  That's not exactly the case for Purdue.  The Boilermakers have other options at receiver, but their #2 option, Milton Wright, also didn't make the trip.  At pass rush, they have their full compliment of options behind Karlaftis, but that's not exactly an abundance of riches.  Redshirt freshman Kydran Jenkins came on late, recording 4 of his 5 sacks in the second half of the season, but he's going to find his life much more difficult without Karlaftis drawing attention opposite him.  Purdue has an underrated secondary, but if Hooker has time, he should have success.  He led the SEC in passer rating, and was #3 nationally in yards per attempt, with just 3 interceptions to go with his 26 touchdowns.  Tennessee had a crowded backfield, with three different backs splitting carries.  Tiyon Evans entered the portal, which actually might make things easier from a personnel standpoint.  The Boilermakers need to figure out a way to generate pressure against a Tennessee offensive line which gave up the most sacks in the SEC, really the only weakness of this offense, which was probably second only to Alabama in skill position talent in the conference.  With Karlaftis, I'd feel better about that, but Purdue is just missing too much star power here.
TENNESSEE 30, PURDUE 28

PEACH BOWL
#10 Michigan State Spartans (10-2) vs. #12 Pittsburgh Panthers (11-2)
Thursday @ 7:00 - Atlanta, GA - ESPN
I think rather inarguably no bowl suffered more from opt outs more than the Peach Bowl has.  Pitt and Michigan State do not bring as much in terms of shiny helmets as other New Years Six bowls have, but what it did have was a Heisman finalist quarterback taking on the best running back in the country.  Instead we see neither of those things, and really, a Pitt offense which was the best in the ACC is really stripped down to the bones.  Receiver Taysir Mack joined Kenny Pickett in opting out, and offensive coordinator Mark Whipple left to take the same position at Nebraska.  Pat Narduzzi hasn't figured out a replacement, so it will be tight ends coach Tim Salem calling the plays, with a permanent hire to be made later.  It will be Nick Patti under center, who appeared in 8 games, throwing 14 passes this year.  But with USC transfer Kedon Slovis on the way, it's not like this is the 2022 starter getting a full game of reps.  Pitt's offense was so talented this year, that even with all of those missing pieces, they still boast the Biletnikoff Award winner in Jordan Addison at receiver, and a pair of talent tight ends in Lucas Krull and Gavin Bartholomew, who combined for 64 receptions, 760 yards, and 10 touchdowns.  And they still get to face a Michigan State secondary with many issues.  Defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton covered the issues as best he could for a while with a bend, but don't break strategy, that led the Spartans to an 8-0 start, capped with a win against Michigan, thanks to holding the Wolverines to 4 red zone field goals.  Leaks began to spring over the final month, as a thin unit became even thinner after a couple of injuries to both starting cornerbacks.  The Michigan State offense is more than Kenneth Walker II as well though.  After Jalen Nailor was lost for the regular season in the Michigan game, too much fell on Jayden Reed in the passing game, but it appears Nailor's hand injury is healed, and the explosive Spartan passing game we saw through the first two months should be too.  If you are looking for a breakout star on that side of the ball, it's Purdue transfer tight end Maliq Carr, who missed the first half of the season with an injury, but flashed the athleticism that gave Purdue's staff optimism he could play receiver.  He had a full month of bowl prep, and it appears that starting tight end Tyler Hunt will miss the game with an injury.  Hunt has filled in admirably for the past two seasons, after the tight end room was ravaged by injuries.  But, he is a converted walk on punter.  Carr can be a difference maker, and now the Spartans have no other options.  Like too many of these breakdowns, it comes down to who isn't there, rather than who is.  Walker is special, but getting Nailor back makes the Spartans passing game more healthy than its been since the first half against Michigan.  Addison is also special, but even the best receivers are dependent on their surrounding pieces, and without his Heisman finalist quarterback, or Mack to draw coverage (even though he was injured late in the year), or their coordinator to call plays, I think that gives the Spartan defense enough of an opening to hold on.
MICHIGAN STATE 27, PITTSBURGH 24

LAS VEGAS BOWL
Wisconsin Badgers (8-4) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-4)
Thursday @ 10:30 - Las Vegas, NV - ESPN
After a rough start that put Wisconsin's bowl streak in jeopardy, a total turnaround, combined with some well placed losses among their division rivals put Bucky back in position to reach the conference championship game...again.  Their offensive issues reared their head again in the season finale against Minnesota, and as the Gophers got a rare win in the rivalry, it kept Wisconsin from a chance to play for the Rose Bowl.  Instead, Wisconsin will have to settle for a revenge game, in a trend among the second tier Big Ten bowls.  Minnesota has to return to the site of the biggest blown lead in bowl history; Purdue has to return to the site of their blood bath a couple years ago; and now Wisconsin has to face an opponent that they should have beaten, save some Pac 12 officials.  Everyone laughed at the Herm Edwards hire, but the early returns were solid.  More recently?  Meh.  There are the obvious NCAA issues, but the program has stagnated again.  They went 8-4, so it's not a fireable offense, but it also no longer feels like the program is building towards anything.  Their best two running backs leaving the team (one opting out, one transferring to Ohio State) does not build confidence either.  The story for both offenses was a reliance on the running game, after both had highly touted quarterbacks fail to take the next step.  Graham Mertz has been nothing but unfulfilled promise since his recruiting rankings; while Jayden Daniels flashed so much promise early in his career, but has failed to develop.  The difference is Wisconsin has leaned on a true freshman back in Braelon Allen, to resurrect their offense, to an extent, from September, who will play in the game; while Arizona State just leaned harder into Rachaad White, who has opted out to focus on the NFL Draft.  The Sun Devils need Daniels to be the guy they expected to have in 2021, rather than the guy they got.  Daniyel Ngata is the only Arizona State back with any amount of run this season who has played this year.  And that run was mostly early in the year.  Over Arizona State's last seven games he totaled just 8 carries.  Which still leaves him as the only available back with more than 20 rushing yards on the season.
WISCONSIN 30, ARIZONA STATE 17
ORANGE BOWL
#2 Michigan Wolverines (12-1) vs. #3 Georgia Bulldogs (12-1)
Friday @ 7:30 - Miami, FL - ESPN
As recently as Thanksgiving we were discussing where this Georgia defense ranked among the all time greats; and that at least Harbaugh got Michigan to bounce back to pre-2020 levels, which weren't all that satisfying to Michigan fans at the time.  My how the tables have turned.  Michigan went out and beat Ohio State for the first time in a decade, and Harbaughs first time ever, before clobbering Iowa in the Big Ten title game.  Then Georgia got absolutely torched by an Alabama offense that struggled the previous week to score against Auburn.  So did we learn something, or are we overreacting to one week?  Vegas still likes Georgia by two scores, but I'm not so sure.  I don't think the Wolverines can take the top off this defense like Alabama did with Jameson Williams; but I think we might see more Donovan Edwards than we have to date.  The true freshman struggled to bust through the dynamic top pairing of Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum, for good reason; but I think he has the potential to be the best pass catching back in the country next year.  He showed flashes this year, and I would let him give even more.  For both teams, the key is winning first and second downs.  You don't want either Cade McNamera or Stetson Bennett in obvious passing downs.  The Wolverines dispatched the Buckeyes by running the ball over them on first down, and giving Josh Gattis the entire playbook to use.  If Michigan can run the ball as effectively against Georgia on first down, I think they'll win just as easily.  I just don't think this Georgia front seven will wilt like Ohio State did.  Can Gattis figure out a way to run the ball?  Will he use J.J. McCarthy in new ways?  He's been primarily a running threat, with a couple of deep shots per game.  He clearly has the most upside, but in Michigan's sole loss, when they blew a 16 point second half lead, McCarthy had a pair of fourth quarter fumbles.  They say to put your money where your mouth is, but I guess I'm refusing to put my mouth where my money is.  I already put in a bet for Michigan to win straight up, but now that I'm typing it, I'm just worried that Georgia is just Michigan, with better players.
GEORGIA 28, MICHIGAN 24

OUTBACK BOWL
Penn State Nittany Lions (7-5) vs. #21 Arkansas Razorbacks (8-4)
Saturday @ NOON - Tampa, FL - espn2
It's hard to remember now, but Penn State began the season 5-0, with a road win at Wisconsin, a home win over a ranked Auburn team, reaching #4 in the polls, and leading fellow top 5 Iowa 14-3 in Iowa City.  Then Sean Clifford got hurt, and even though he eventually returned, the season went off the rails in a hurry.  The Nittany Lions lost 5 of their final 7 games, the wins coming against lowly Maryland and Rutgers.  They had chances.  They had Iowa beat until they lost their quarterback.  They lost in overtime to Illinois.  They had one blown coverage in a home loss to Michigan.  Three plays from being 10-2.  But 7-5 is 7-5, although the 5 opt outs they had for the game does show how much talent this team had.  Four defensive starters, plus stud wideout Jahan Dotson are all skipping this one.  Losing Dotson is particularly troubling for an offense that struggled to run the ball for the second consecutive year, and now has to lean heavily on Parker Washington, without arguably the conference's top receiver.  Washington came on late, recording at least 4 receptions in five of Penn State's final six games; and tallying his only two touchdowns against an FBS opponent in their final two games.  With an extra month to rest and heal, I do think we will see the best Sean Clifford we've seen since September.  As good as the Penn State defense has been this year, I do think that will be the bigger concern.  It's not just the four defensive starters opting out, but defensive coordinator Brent Pry, who has been James Franklin's coordinator for all 12 of Franklin's head coaching seasons, since 2011 at Vanderbilt, has left to take the head coaching job at Virginia Tech.  I think Kendal Briles, and a veteran quarterback in K.J. Jefferson, with a month to prep, could put together a game plan that could cause problems for a Penn State defense which is green up the middle due to the opt outs.  Jefferson had 10 carries for 73 yards against Texas; 20 for 85 against Ole Miss; and 18 for 66 against Auburn.  I think he may hit 100 here.
ARKANSAS 27, PENN STATE 23

CITRUS BOWL
#15 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-3) vs. #22 Kentucky Wildcats (9-3)
Saturday @ 1:00 - Orlando, FL - ABC
Iowa looks to extend the nation's longest non conference win streak on the 5th anniversary of their last non-Big Ten loss, to Florida in the 2017 Outback Bowl.  They'll have to beat an alum, in opposing head coach Mark Stoops, who was in Iowa City for six seasons, from 1986-1991, first as a player, then as a graduate assistant.  This game might be as simple as ball control for Kentucky.  If they can stay within 1 in turnover margin, I have a tough time seeing them losing.  That's been the story both both teams all season though.  Iowa is #2 in the nation in turnover margin, leading the nation in interceptions; while Kentucky is #129 (out of 130) in turnover margin, both failing to generate turnovers, and having Will Levis be a a roller coaster of big plays and boneheaded turnovers.  That is even more true with Iowa running back Tyler Goodson opting out and declaring for the NFL Draft.  Goodson ends his three year Hawkeye career #10 in school history in rushing yards, and with just 52 yards in the bowl game, would have jumped Owen Gill, Tony Stewart and Mark Weisman into 7th place, and would trail only Fred Russell in terms of guys who only played for three seasons.  What he did this year, reaching 1,000 yards was particularly remarkable considering how un-Ferentz-like the Iowa offensive line was this year, ranking as the 11th worst line in the FBS in terms of average line yards, and ranking in the bottom 20 in five of the six run blocking metrics tracked by Football Outsiders.  Fifth year senior Ivory Kelly-Martin, who had 44 carries this year, but none since October, probably gets thrust into the limelight.  He has received steady work for all 5 seasons in Iowa City, but has never had this much responsibility before.  Kentucky knows Iowa can't do much offensively, and just can't shoot themselves in the foot.  That's asking Will Levis, not to be Will Levis, so I'm sure he'll still have his moments, but this is a rushing attack which really came on late.  They probably won't go over 200 yards for a fifth straight game, but they'll get enough.
KENTUCKY 22, IOWA 21

ROSE BOWL
#6 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) vs. #11 Utah Utes (10-3)
Saturday @ 5:00 - Pasadena, CA - ESPN
Kyle Whittingham doesn't need to dig that deep into the film vault to see what he needs to see the recipe for his Utes.  C.J. Stroud lit Michigan up for nearly 400 yards, and Michigan still won by two touchdowns, thanks to a massive gap in the run game.  The Wolverines finished with nearly 300 yards on over 7 ypc, while Ohio State mustered just 2.1 ypc for 64 yards.  Here come the Utes, third in the nation in ypc this season, and really starting to lean heavily into that strength.  Over their last three games, they've run the ball 66.7% of the time.  Only Minnesota ran the ball a higher percentage of the time among Power 5 teams.  The Buckeyes running game cannot afford a repeat of that, with the absence of their top two receivers, and best pass blocker.  C.J. Stroud will get his yards, but he got his yards in their losses too.  When Ohio State can't run, they don't win.  I am interested to see how Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks as THE guy.  He was fantastic this year, but when teams have to also worry about a pair of guys who will be Day 1 starters in NFL next season, and the former #1 overall recruit in the country in your position room, it's a little easier to find room to operate.  This will be a great look at how this offense will look next year, but is still plenty good this year.  Speaking of that former #1 overall recruit, it's time for Julian Fleming to show it.  He's been fine, and it's not like the other Buckeye receivers have given him an opening to take advantage of.  But he has tantalizing talent, and this could be his coming out party.  There's been a lot of discussion about how much Ohio State wants to be here.  But it's not like this is the first time they've missed the playoff in the CFP era.  They've missed it half the time, and the previous three times they had to "settle" for a New Years Six, non-CFP bowl, they won.  That includes a 28-25 win over Washington in the 2018 Rose Bowl.  The slight difference here is that in those previous circumstances, their opponent was in a similar boat.  This is a program validating appearance for Utah, against a program that had to return roughly 1/3 of their ticket allotment.  Granted it would have cost the conference a CFP appearance, but if Iowa had upset Michigan, it would have given us a REAL Rose Bowl between two programs that would give anything to be there.  If Ohio State takes the way Michigan ran over them personally, they still have more talent, even with the opt outs.  If not, Utah will shorten the game, and give Ohio State a game that looks a lot like their last one.
UTAH 31, OHIO STATE 27
« Last Edit: January 01, 2022, 01:02:59 PM by ELA »

Honestbuckeye

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Re: ELA Bowl Season Breakdown
« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2021, 04:21:30 PM »
Fantastic! I was hoping you would do this thread because I really enjoy your analysis.
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

ELA

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Re: ELA Bowl Season Breakdown
« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2021, 04:40:29 PM »
Fenway Bowl up

ELA

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Re: ELA Bowl Season Breakdown
« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2021, 04:58:38 PM »

ELA

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Re: ELA Bowl Season Breakdown
« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2021, 04:51:39 PM »
Music City Bowl added

ELA

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Re: ELA Bowl Season Breakdown
« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2021, 06:09:40 PM »
Peach Bowl added

ELA

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Re: ELA Bowl Season Breakdown
« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2021, 10:42:39 PM »
Las Vegas Bowl added

ELA

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Re: ELA Bowl Season Breakdown
« Reply #7 on: December 30, 2021, 02:36:33 PM »
Orange Bowl in, not doing Rutgers' back in bowl

Honestbuckeye

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Re: ELA Bowl Season Breakdown
« Reply #8 on: December 30, 2021, 02:57:29 PM »
Orange Bowl in, not doing Rutgers' back in bowl
Rose?
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

ELA

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Re: ELA Bowl Season Breakdown
« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2021, 03:41:03 PM »

Honestbuckeye

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Re: ELA Bowl Season Breakdown
« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2021, 04:10:54 PM »
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

ELA

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Re: ELA Bowl Season Breakdown
« Reply #11 on: December 30, 2021, 04:35:13 PM »
Outback Bowl in

ELA

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Re: ELA Bowl Season Breakdown
« Reply #12 on: December 31, 2021, 02:05:05 PM »
Citrus Bowl in

ELA

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Re: ELA Bowl Season Breakdown
« Reply #13 on: January 01, 2022, 01:03:07 PM »
Got em all in

 

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