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Topic: ELA August 31 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** August 27, 2019, 11:14:29 AM »

Not going to have one next week though

South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Thursday @ 9:00 - Minneapolis, MN - FS1

MINNESOTA 37, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 24

#19 Wisconsin Badgers at South Florida Bulls

Friday @ 7:00 - Tampa, FL - ESPN

No team may be more ready to get 2019 going than South Florida. The Bulls burst out early in 2018, getting off to a 7-0 start, with a pair of Power 5 wins, and a #21 national ranking, and a 3:30 ABC nationally televised game against Houston. The Cougars lit them up for 57 points, kicking off a 6 game losing streak that saw Charlie Strong's defense shredded for 35 or more points in five of those games. The Bulls featured the AAC's best defense in 2017, and they better get back close to that level in 2019, or Wisconsin's passing game concerns may not matter. South Florida surrendered 5.1 ypc a year ago, worst in the AAC*. The asterisk is because UConn's 2018 defense was so historically bad, that no other AAC team could possibly be the worst in any metric, so we've removed them from any rankings. The back seven is still ok, but the defensive line struggled mightily. The signs are that South Florida will move from a base 4-2-5, to a more traditional 4-3, and move Greg Reaves back to defensive end. The hope is that he can provide the group with a boost to their pass rushing, but the run defense still seems problematic. Wisconsin couldn't too much abandon being Wisconsin. The Badgers brought in probably their most prized quarterback recruit ever (if you don't count Russell Wilson as a grad transfer), fresh off a dazzling performance in the All-American Bowl. The type of elite passer that Wisconsin doesn't get, and doesn't rely upon. So to protect their brand, they named Jack Coan as starter. The same Jack Coan who played in 5 games last year and had a Total QBR that would have been 3rd worst in the Big Ten, had he had enough attempts to qualify. As I said earlier, it probably doesn't matter who gets the start in the opener, South Florida has a solid secondary, and zero run defense (Marshall ran for nearly 300 yards against them in the Gasparilla Bowl), but this feels like a missed opportunity to get Mertz a shot against a solid secondary, in a road environment, before you absolutely need him. They have Michigan at home in two weeks, and I simply don't think you can beat Michigan with Jack Coan under center. And I don't think Mertz went to Madison to sit behind him.

WISCONSIN 30, SOUTH FLORIDA 24

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at #18 Michigan State Spartans

Friday @ 7:00 - East Lansing, MI - FS1

Both defensive coordinators are operating in the dark trying to prep for this one. For Tulsa, even though Michigan State's offensive coaching "changes" did little (nothing?) to appease the fan base, but the early rumblings are that the changes are going to be more stark than simply reshuffling. It all starts with health, something Michigan State had great luck with in 2017, with the 8th fewest starts lost to injury. I cautioned last year about how horrifically thin Michigan State's depth chart was, and that they needed similar luck in 2018. They didn't get it. The Spartans lost 55 starts to injury in 2018. Only TCU (56) and Virginia Tech (63) lost more. Considering basically all of those except Josiah Scott's 8 games were on the offensive side of the ball, it made a bad situation a lot worse. Tulsa's offensive mystery lies in who their starting quarterback will be. A three-horse race, was narrowed to two when Luke Skipper, who was the starter to begin last season, until he suffered a season ending injury in late September, announced his retirement. It's between sophomore Seth Boomer, who took over last year for the final 8 games, and struggled with accuracy, but did solve Tulsa's turnover issues; and Baylor transfer Zach Smith. Smith committed to Art Briles, and offensive coordinator Phillip Montgomery in June of 2014, right before Baylor's breakout season. He stuck with his commitment, but decided to follow Montgomery, who is now the head coach at Tulsa. Smith showed flashes of potential, including 463 yards, 4 touchdown shootout with Baker Mayfield in a near upset of #3 Oklahoma in 2017. Where he needs to improve over Boomer is getting the ball out. The Golden Hurricane surrendered the most sacks in the AAC last year, and they now open against a Michigan State front seven, that Athlon ranks third nationally, behind just Alabama and Clemson. He'll share the backfield with a pair of great running backs, Shamari Brooks and Corey Taylor II, who has been saying there's no reason not to expect Tulsa to run for 200 yards, against what was the nation's top run defense a year ago. There's no question that Tulsa has the weapons to challenge Michigan State's defense. The Spartans looked rocky on that side of the ball early on last year. The offensive line has to take major steps forward to utilize those weapons, and replacing three starters, against a front like Michigan State's, doesn't seem like the time to do it. The X factor is how much Montgomery can change the playcalling with a veteran like Smith, with his Power Five pedigree, versus the redshirt freshman he had to use last year.

MICHIGAN STATE 38, TULSA 9

Massachusetts Minutemen at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Friday @ 7:15 - Piscataway, NJ - BTN

Had this game been the opener a year ago, it may have been a little scary. The UMass offense looked to be absolutely loaded, with NFL prospects at quarterback, running back and reciever, and an offensive "genius" as head coach in Mark Whipple. Now, in going 4-8, it was UMass' best season since their elevations to FBS status in 2013, but that shows you just what "peak" UMass football is right now. 2019 should be a huge step back even for that, and I'm not sure how far backward the defense can go, after surrendering 55 or more points in half of their games. So as bad as the Rutgers offense was last year, it's hard not to move the ball against these guys. Rutgers will probably still be quite bad, but if they can flip some numbers on the margins, they stand to get a lot better. That starts with cutting the turnovers on offense, and creating more on defense. Is the answer Art Sitkowski making major progress going from a freshman to a sophomore or Boston College transfer Johnny Langan, who had his waiver granted? Chris Ash seemed enamored by the pedigree of Sitkowski, who flipped from Miami, but the true freshman threw 18 interceptions to only 4 touchdowns in split duty, and Rutgers lapped the field in interception rate, nearly 2 per game. Langan redshirted last year as a true freshman at Boston College, and provides a more athletic option. He's not a true runner, but he can move around quite a bit more than Sitkowski, enough that rumors are that he left Boston College because the coaches there wanted him to change positions. That mobility may help behind an offensive line that lost two NFL tackles from a line that struggled a ton last year, Because Rutgers didn't know Langan's eligibility status, they also added Texas Tech grad transfer McLane Carter, who saw 10 games of very underwhelming action in Lubbock, completing just 52% of his passes in Kliff Kingsbury's Air Raid. The Scarlet Knights defense was better than you may think, they just need to get off the field. Their overall numbers were pretty good, but they were last in the Big Ten in sack rate and turnovers created rate. They were playing even better late in the year, when they held Northwestern, Penn State and Michigan State to 20 points or less over their final five weeks. Rutgers may get some points, but they also scored 35 on Texas State in the opener last year that was fools gold.

RUTGERS 42, MASSACHUSETTS 20

Purdue Boilermakers at Nevada Wolfpack

Friday @ 9:30 - Reno, NV - CBSSN

Just like last year, September could be a very make or break month for the Boilermakers. They are probably going to be favored in each of their first four game, and could go into Happy Valley at 4-0. But a cross country trip to play a night game at Nevada, followed by home dates against Vanderbilt, TCU and Minnesota also doesn't have a layup in the bunch. 0-4 seems extreme, but I suppose possible. Purdue can not stumble out of the gate like they did last year, when they got off to an 0-3 start, kicked off by a pair of 15 yard personal fouls that cost them chances to beat Northwestern and Eastern Michigan. Nevada probably has its most talented roster in Jay Norvell's three years at the helm, and if the quarterback situation works itself out, it might be their best team since the 2010 Colin Kaepernick team that went 13-1 and finished #11. Redshirt freshman Carson Strong will get the first shot, and Nevada has the makeup that the Jay Norvell/Matt Mumme Air Raid offense wants. The transfer of top WR McLane Mannix hurts, but the Wolfpack return their seven next leading recievers, so they should be able to spread the ball around. If Strong struggles, Cristian Solano, last year's #2, might be next up, but the very intriguing option is Malik Henry. The crown jewel of Florida State's 2016 recruiting class, he was kicked off the team for punching a woman in a bar before ever seeing the field. He spent 2017 playing at Last Chance U, and then after finding no FBS offers, went back for 2018. However, he only barely saw the field, and was kicked off the team, because, according to the coach, "Malik hasn't changed." He seems like a gamble not worth taking for Nevada, but it is what it is now. Purdue's strength is also their receiving group, led by Rondale Moore, the most dynamic player in college football, now joined by a pair of recruits in David Bell and Milton Wright, who would have rated as Purdue's #1 and #3 highest rated recruits of the past 12 seasons. I say "would have" because George Karlaftis was also a part of this class. All reports are that he is absolutely living up to the billing. The questions are sort of everywhere else. The offensive line needs to develop, Elijah Sindelar needs to play much more consistent, and a running back needs to emerge. A position that was already thin following the graduation of its top two rushers from 2018, dwindled even more following a broken jaw suffered by Tario Fuller. Zander Horvath and his 9 career carries is now the clear cut #1, but when you have coaches discussing giving a walk on fullback more touches, it doesn't really instill confidence. I wouldn't be surprised to see Moore line up in the backfield quite a bit. This is an unnecessarily tough, no-win situation for a team like Purdue to start the season with. If the Wolfpack get good quarterback play, I think the Boilermakers are a juicy pick to get upset. But considering a backup JUCO quarterback, who got kicked out of two schools, is in the mix to start, based on his high school performance from four years ago, I'm not confident that will happen. Nevada will make Purdue uncomfortable though.

PURDUE 30, NEVADA 28

Florida Atlantic Owls at #5 Ohio State Buckeyes

NOON - Columbus, OH - FOX

Lane Kiffin's Florida Atlantic was the hot pick darling of last offseason. They were coming off the best season in program history, an 11-3 finish, winning 10 straight games to close, completing the second 9-0 season in Conference USA history. Scott Frost had departed Central Florida for Nebraska, and Kiffin (running Last Chance U with FBS restrictions) was primed to take that spot. Everything fit perfectly, and they had a chance to make an opening statement in Norman, Oklahoma, against a Sooner team trying to replace Baker Mayfield. That enthusiasm lasted less than a half of football as, keyed by three touchdowns in 2:51, the Owls found themselves down 35-0 just 17 minutes into the game, and down 56-0 before finding the end zone late in the 3rd. Turns out Oklahoma was better than expected, and the kid who replaced Baker Mayfield wasn't too shabby. But Florida Atlantic's downturn didn't end there. UCF whipped them by 20 to remind them who the Group of 5 darling still was, then they lost to Middle Tennessee, Marshall, Louisiana Tech, North Texas, and then, in the season finale, to cost themselves a bowl bid, to a 4-7 Charlotte team. So unlike going into Norman last year, nobody is taking Florida Atlantic as a sleeper pick. But don't sleep on Florida Atlantic. Last year was a hiccup, but Kiffin has signed the top recruiting class in the conference two of the past three years, so while they may be less experienced, the overall talent is still getting better. Ryan Day got a taste last year during Meyer's suspension, but now the job is fully his, and wow, what a tradition he has to maintain. Since 1951, Ohio State went from Woody to Bruce to Cooper to Tressell to Meyer. That is five straight Hall of Fame coaches, all of whom had a .715 winning percentage or better. The Owls have the athletes in the back seven to challenge Ohio State's skill players, but a green offensive line should be licking its chops against what should be an overmatched Florida Atlantic front. Harrison Bryant is as good as any tight end in the country, and former Florida/Maryland commit Tyler Tisdale who missed all of 2018 with a knee injury has big time talent at running back. But I don't see the weapons on the outside to prevent Ohio State from loading the box.

OHIO STATE 46, FLORIDA ATLANTIC 17

South Alabama Jaguars at #24 Nebraska Cornhuskers

NOON - Lincoln, NE - ESPN

4-8 probably isn't what anyone had in mind for Scott Frost season 1, but the difference a healthy Taylor Martinez makes, could have gotten the Huskers into a bowl a season ago. They blew a late lead against Colorado with him hurt, then lost to Troy without him, then struggled against Michigan and Purdue with him clearly well below 100%. The Nebraska we saw over the second half of the season was not a 4-8 team. Which (combined with their name) is why they now find themselves in the preseason top 25, a place Nebraska hasn't found itself since 2014. That four year absence is notable for a program that had been unranked in the preseason poll four times TOTAL from 1970-2014. Now its time to deliver, and frankly, I think (as has been well noted here) that the expectations are unfair. I think they are a year ahead. Not that it should matter in Week 1. The Jaguars rotated between three quarterbacks last year, but neither Evan Orth or Cole Garvin got an additional year of eligibility, so the job fell to Cephus Johnson, who finished the year as the starter, but got the least run of the three. He saw action in 8 games, but only threw 19 passes, and only completed 7 of those. He ran more than he threw, but I'm not sure why, averaging just 2.2 ypc. Really the only task for the Blackshirts is shutting down Tra Minter, who really came into his own late in the season, including over 250 offensive yards in the season finale. How well Nebraska slows him might be a bit of a measuring stick for a Cornhusker defense that gave up the third most yards in the Big Ten on the ground last year, and is, I think, worse along the line this year. We won't learn much in the opener, but if South Alabama is able to run the ball, that is a bad sign going forward for any possible improvement in that area from the Huskers.

NEBRASKA 42, SOUTH ALABAMA 21

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ball State Cardinals

NOON - Indianapolis, IN - CBSSN

Indiana really wants to try this again? The Hoosiers kicked off their 2011 campaign with a loss to Ball State in Lucas Oil Stadium. That Indiana team went 1-11, winless against FBS competition, their worst season since Bill Mallory went 0-11 in his 1984 debut. This Indiana team figures to be a bit better than that, but they still look like they are just treading water, winning 5 or 6 games in five of their past six seasons, trying to schedule bowl bids by going 15-2 against OOC cupcakes, but failing to put together their first winning conference record since 1993. Tom Allen has managed to upgrade Indiana's defensive profile, but their offense has fallen off. On paper it reads that senior returning starter Peyton Ramsey was replaced, but that was a decision that appeared to be made last year, and then Michael Penix suffered a season ending knee injury. So it was called a three way quarterback race, between Ramsey, former Tennessee commit Penix, and Utah transfer Jack Tuttle, who was a blue chip recruit, and got his transfer waiver. Allen seemed to be constantly looking for a reason to replace Ramsey, and his two bigger name guys gave him one. Nobody threw the ball more often than Indiana last year, and Ramsey's 11 interceptions in conference play, and a ypa of 6.4 (4th worst in the conference) weren't going to cut it. Indiana needs to improve their downfield passing attack, and it's clear Ramsey was not that guy. The backfield is a little more crowded too. True freshman Stevie Scott was a revelation in the wake of Morgan Ellison's suspension and ultimate dismissal, but the wear of his first college season was evident as the season progressed. Ronnie Walker Jr. and Ohio State flip Sampson James give Indiana plenty of ways to spread the carries. Ball State would have been a much scarier opponent in a pre-transfer portal world. Instead they lost their senior starting backfield, with quarterback Riley Neal going to Vanderbilt and tailback James Gilbert to Kansas State. The Cardinals still have the best receiving duo in the MAC with Riley Miller and Justin Hall, but without the transfer portal, they'd probably have the best collection of skill position players in the conference. Drew Plitt started the last few games of 2018 when Neal was hurt, and shows solid upside, but he was an interception machine, tossing the ball to opponents at a rate that (if he had enough attempts to qualify) would have been second highest in the FBS. The Hoosiers surrendered the most passing yards in the Big Ten last year, but they also forced the third most interceptions.

INDIANA 37, BALL STATE 21

Akron Zips at Illinois Fighting Illini

NOON - Champaign, IL - BTN

Strength on strength is fun, but this one may be determined by weakness on weakness, being Akron's offense, which was second worst in the MAC, against the Illinois defense, worst in the Big Ten. They are hoping new hire, 37 year old Tom Arth can harken back to his days when he made John Carroll a legit threat to Mount Union's Division III supremacy, and not his rather lackluster past two years in FCS Chattanooga. It would be a big help if we see the Kato Nelson who threw for over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns against Ohio in 2017, filling in for injured starter Thomas Woodson, putting the Zips in the MAC Championship Game. He almost never was able to recreate that performance once the starting job was his last year, except, oddly, again against a good Ohio team. Something about the Wagon Wheel just brings out the best in him. Illinois' offense is so much fun to watch as a fan of creative, run heavy teams. They just need their defense to give them a little help this year. They had an 8 game stretch last year where they went 2-6, the two wins being the lone two times their defense held the opposition to under 46 points. That doesn't seem to be asking too much. They bring back 9 starters on that side of the ball, including their entire defensive line and secondary, so if the issue is only inexperience, they could improve a lot. The Illini have zero margin for error if they want to get to a bowl game, and if Lovie doesn't this year, he never will in Champaign. He has by far the most experienced roster in the West Division, the lone West team to rank in the upper half of the Big Ten in experience. He's added Brandon Peters, transfer from Michigan to hopefully add more of a passing threat to what is already a dynamic running game. This is the type of game that if Illinois opens with a loss, bowl hopes are out the window before Labor Day. I wouldn't be too concerned, Akron had perhaps the most defensive talent of any school in the MAC last year, but graduated 5 all-conference performers. It remains to be seen if they can keep up their 2018 level of play. If not, predicting 34 points for Illinois will look comically low.

ILLINOIS 34, AKRON 21

Howard Bison at Maryland Terrapins

NOON - College Park, MD - BTN

MARYLAND 50, HOWARD 10

Idaho Vandals at Penn State Nittany Lions

3:30 - State College, PA - BTN

PENN STATE 51, IDAHO 9

Miami(Ohio) RedHawks at #20 Iowa Hawkeyes

7:30 - Iowa City, IA - FS1

Miami used to be the one MAC opponent that rivals wouldn't roll their eyes at you for scheduling. I doubt anyone playing in this game remembers those days. The RedHawks have finished over .500 just once in the past 15 years, and have won just two conference titles in the past three decades. The last time they beat a Power Five team? 2007, when their MAC East divisional champion team beat a 2-10 Syracuse, 17-14 at home. The early season struggles have been the problem for Chuck Martin, who actually boasts a 20-20 MAC record, including 16-8 over the past 3 years. But he has been a horrific 2-19 out of conference, with both of those wins being against FCS schools (and even at that, they are 2-2 against FCS teams). Miami's last FBS non-conference win was against Army in 2011. The Miami offensive line, which was one of the best pass blocking units in the nation last year, will have their hands full with Iowa's pass rushers, most notably A.J. Epenesa. It's on them to play at their 2018 level, because they have a whole lot of problems behind them. Former Michigan quarterback Alex Malzone put his name back in the transfer portal after spending one year as the #2 quarterback in Oxford, and absolutely nothing has been settled otherwise. Chuck Martin listed three underclassmen quarterbacks as "OR" on his depth chart, so who knows. At tailback, Maurice Thomas has been one of the most dangerous special teams players in the MAC, and one of the most useless offensive players, averaging just 3.8 ypc last year, but is the only back with any meaningful experience. Davion Johnson, who saw very little action a year ago as a redshirt freshman, showed more upside and may wind up being the guy. For Iowa, they want to get the running game going early, and prove that 2018 was a mirage. Seeing the Hawkeyes down at #11 in the conference at 4.0 ypc as a team, just looks weird. Nate Stanley is the most underrated quarterback in the Big Ten in my opinion, but he had possibly his two best games last year in losses to Wisconsin and Purdue. Getting that offensive balance back is key, and while a big ground effort here won't prove anything as changed, the failure to do so is major cause for concern.

IOWA 42, MIAMI(OHIO) 7

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at #7 Michigan Wolverines

7:30 - Ann Arbor, MI - BTN

The last we saw Michigan, the Revenge tour was running off the rails. One game short of their first ever trip to the Big Ten Championship Game, and likely College Football Playoff, culminating with a pair of blowout losses to close. The defense lost a ton of NFL talent, and while they have plenty returning, Don Brown will certainly have far less to work with than he has the past couple years. The talent is still there, it's just a question of how quickly they grow up. Early on though, the offense should, if you take Harbaugh at his word, be a lot more fun to watch. Shea Patterson is going to be allowed to do more of what he excels at, the offensive line is probably the best in the Big Ten with no offense to Iowa or Wisconsin, and they have their best trio of receivers since the 2003 group of Edwards, Avant and Breaston. The only question mark is at running back, where a whole lot falls on the shoulders of true freshman Zach Charbonnet. The reviews are quite good, but ask Michigan fans about true freshman running backs, when guys who relied on elite ability but never learned to play the position have disappointed them in the past, such as Justin Fargas, Kevin Grady, Max Martin, Sam McGuffie, Derrick Henry; while an under the radar guy named Mike Hart hit the ground running. Middle Tennessee was built for 2018, and their failure to beat UAB a second time cost them a conference championship. Now they have to replace quarterback Brent Stockstill. No biggie, he was just the son of the head coach, the school's all time leading passer, and the nation's third most accurate passer a year ago, completing over 70% of his passes. Ty Lee returns, and is on track to become the school's all time leading receiver, but at 5'9" and just 175 pounds, with a new quarterback throwing him the ball, it's hard to see him being a huge difference maker. The Blue Raiders will look to get him lost in the linebackers and try to let him make plays after the catch. Lavert Hill will negate any chance of him being a downfield threat. With very interesting games against Army and Wisconsin to follow, this is worth a tune in to see what the new look Wolverine offense looks like, if that much is even unveiled, and not much else.

MICHIGAN 42, MIDDLE TENNESSEE 10

***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***

Northwestern Wildcats at #25 Stanford Cardinal

4:00 - Palo Alto, CA - FOX

This one sort of wins by default, with Northwestern being the only Big Ten team to open against a Power Five opponent. But even if they weren't, it's a pretty nice little opener. Northwestern is coming off their first Big Ten Championship Game appearance, and we get to see the debut of Hunter Johnson at quarterback. Johnson was a blue chip commit to Clemson, and all we know is that he wasn't as good as Trevor Lawrence, which doesn't really set a very low ceiling. But he is still a sophomore who hasn't seen a meaningful snap since being a high school senior in 2016. But backup T.J. Green isn't exactly inexperienced. He got plenty of time, probably too much time, early last year in a time share when Clayton Thorson was still working his way back from injury. Not that being better than T.J. Green is a high bar, but if he were totally unready, it's not like the job was his by default. He has the benefit of workhorse back Isaiah Bowser. The Wildcat running game was completely dismal early last year, after the retirement of Jeremy Larkin in September, but the emergence of Bowser over the second half of the year eased that. Over the final 8 weeks of the season, his 108 ypg was third best in the Big Ten, however his 4.4 ypc was worst in the conference among the top ten rushers. That was the Northwestern offensive M.O. though. Just steady, long drives. The hope is that Johnson, who has more natural throwing ability than any Northwestern quarterback I can recall, can help stretch the field for one of the FBS' least exciting offenses under Clayton Thorson. During Thorson's four years, the Wildcats were #123 in the FBS in ypp, and #121 in explosiveness. On paper this is probably the worst Stanford team since probably 2007. Their elite running game sputtered last year without a healthy Bryce Love, and the "next man up" Stanford running back position faltered. The Cardinal were in the bottom 10 of the FBS in rushing, a previously unfathomable fact. Tavita Pritchard was given the green light to open up the offense once it was clear the running game wasn't there, and K.J. Costello quarterbacked the offense to four straight wins, in a more open Cardinal offense, to close the season. That was an on the fly adjustment. The question is whether an offseason allows them time to actually build an offense around Costello, or allows them to revert back to what they have always done. Without a proven running back, and with an offensive line that boasts 1st round NFL talent Walker Little at tackle...to go with four new starters, if Shaw doesn't roll with what was working in November, he will deservedly be on the hot seat. I'm not sold on Stanford, but I'm even less sold on Big Ten teams playing true road games in the Pac 12. Particularly one with a third year quarterback getting his first college action.

STANFORD 24, NORTHWESTERN 23

FearlessF · « **Reply #1 on:** August 27, 2019, 12:57:48 PM »

with the Bulls crap run defense and the Badgers run offense with JT, why do you feel the Badgers only score 30?

4TDs a missed extra point and a FG?

ELA · « **Reply #2 on:** August 27, 2019, 03:21:01 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on August 27, 2019, 12:57:48 PM

with the Bulls crap run defense and the Badgers run offense with JT, why do you feel the Badgers only score 30?

4TDs a missed extra point and a FG?

I could see them passing for double digit yards

ELA · « **Reply #3 on:** August 28, 2019, 02:07:24 PM »

All off Saturday games in

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #4 on:** August 28, 2019, 02:18:05 PM »

@ELA , thanks for doing this, I enjoy reading it each week. I'll miss it next week.

Quote from: ELA on August 27, 2019, 11:14:29 AM

Purdue Boilermakers at Nevada Wolfpack
Friday @ 9:30 - Reno, NV - CBSSN
Just like last year, September could be a very make or break month for the Boilermakers. They are probably going to be favored in each of their first four game, and could go into Happy Valley at 4-0. But a cross country trip to play a night game at Nevada, followed by home dates against Vanderbilt, TCU and Minnesota also doesn't have a layup in the bunch. 0-4 seems extreme, but I suppose possible. Purdue can not stumble out of the gate like they did last year, when they got off to an 0-3 start, kicked off by a pair of 15 yard personal fouls that cost them chances to beat Northwestern and Eastern Michigan. Nevada probably has its most talented roster in Jay Norvell's three years at the helm, and if the quarterback situation works itself out, it might be their best team since the 2010 Colin Kaepernick team that went 13-1 and finished #11. Redshirt freshman Carson Strong will get the first shot, and Nevada has the makeup that the Jay Norvell/Matt Mumme Air Raid offense wants. The transfer of top WR McLane Mannix hurts, but the Wolfpack return their seven next leading recievers, so they should be able to spread the ball around. If Strong struggles, Cristian Solano, last year's #2, might be next up, but the very intriguing option is Malik Henry. The crown jewel of Florida State's 2016 recruiting class, he was kicked off the team for punching a woman in a bar before ever seeing the field. He spent 2017 playing at Last Chance U, and then after finding no FBS offers, went back for 2018. However, he only barely saw the field, and was kicked off the team, because, according to the coach, "Malik hasn't changed." He seems like a gamble not worth taking for Nevada, but it is what it is now. Purdue's strength is also their receiving group, led by Rondale Moore, the most dynamic player in college football, now joined by a pair of recruits in David Bell and Milton Wright, who would have rated as Purdue's #1 and #3 highest rated recruits of the past 12 seasons. I say "would have" because George Karlaftis was also a part of this class. All reports are that he is absolutely living up to the billing. The questions are sort of everywhere else. The offensive line needs to develop, Elijah Sindelar needs to play much more consistent, and a running back needs to emerge. A position that was already thin following the graduation of its top two rushers from 2018, dwindled even more following a broken jaw suffered by Tario Fuller. Zander Horvath and his 9 career carries is now the clear cut #1, but when you have coaches discussing giving a walk on fullback more touches, it doesn't really instill confidence. I wouldn't be surprised to see Moore line up in the backfield quite a bit. This is an unnecessarily tough, no-win situation for a team like Purdue to start the season with. If the Wolfpack get good quarterback play, I think the Boilermakers are a juicy pick to get upset. But considering a backup JUCO quarterback, who got kicked out of two schools, is in the mix to start, based on his high school performance from four years ago, I'm not confident that will happen. Nevada will make Purdue uncomfortable though.
PURDUE 30, NEVADA 28

Hey @bwarbiany , are you going to this game? Have fun if you are!

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #5 on:** August 28, 2019, 03:01:44 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 28, 2019, 02:18:05 PM

@ELA , thanks for doing this, I enjoy reading it each week. I'll miss it next week.

Hey @bwarbiany , are you going to this game? Have fun if you are!

I chose not to make this game, since I'll be at Purdue in two weeks for the TCU@Purdue game (and then in NC for a weekend two weeks later).

In addition, the move from Saturday night to Friday night was inconvenient. It's about an 8 hour drive to Reno, so I'd have had to take the entire day off work to make it, instead of just getting up bright and early Saturday morning for the drive.

Just seemed like too much at once.

ELA · « **Reply #6 on:** August 29, 2019, 06:28:03 PM »

All noon games entered

ELA · « **Reply #7 on:** August 30, 2019, 02:09:22 PM »

Everything but the GOTW entered

ELA · « **Reply #8 on:** August 30, 2019, 04:05:41 PM »

All picks in

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #9 on:** August 31, 2019, 11:54:21 AM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 28, 2019, 03:01:44 PM

I chose not to make this game, since I'll be at Purdue in two weeks for the TCU@Purdue game (and then in NC for a weekend two weeks later).

In addition, the move from Saturday night to Friday night was inconvenient. It's about an 8 hour drive to Reno, so I'd have had to take the entire day off work to make it, instead of just getting up bright and early Saturday morning for the drive.

Just seemed like too much at once.

Glad I didn't go. And now I feel like we're going to get slaughtered by TCU at the game I'll be attending.

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Topic: ELA August 31 Breakdown

ELA

ELA August 31 Breakdown

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betarhoalphadelta

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ELA

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ELA

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ELA

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betarhoalphadelta

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