| 18. Wisconsin Badgers |
| #5 in Big Ten |
Off the top of my head, I believe I had Wisconsin ranked higher in my 2018 preseason rankings than I ever had them before (#4). The other time I was way more bullish on the Badgers than everyone else (2005), it worked out well. This time? Not so much. Wisconsin still did Wisconsin things, they led the Big Ten in rushing yards per game and per carry, and were fourth nationally. Jonathan Taylor led the nation in rushing. The offensive line graded out as the best in the nation in line yards, and run blocking. But the end result was 8-5, just 5-4 in the Big Ten, just the third time since 2003 that Wisconsin finished the year unranked. The reason was that everything else that Wisconsin usually does on a spectrum of good enough to very good, simply was bad. It started with the passing game, where Alex Hornibrook rotated between being injured or ineffective, or both. He dropped in every measurable; completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD;INT ratio, passer rating, and Jack Coan looked nowhere near ready for the job. That’s why Wisconsin fans, always quick to poo poo recruiting rankings, are tentatively excited about Graham Mertz, who is Wisconsin’s highest rated QB recruit ever, and their highest rated recruit period, since 2007*, turning down Alabama, Georgia and Clemson, among others, and then broke every All-American Bowl record in January. Alex Hornibrook transferred to Florida State, but can he beat out Jack Coan? Paul Chryst always plays these things close to the vest, but if he doesn’t it either means (1) Coan is the most improved player in the Big Ten; (2) Mertz is overrated; or (3) Chryst is still playing by an outdated set of rules regarding freshmen quarterbacks. Only one of those two possibilities is a good one for Wisconsin fans, so I’m going to assume Mertz is the starter, because with Michigan in Madison in Game 3, you don’t have much time to realize you made the wrong call. A lot of blame is always heaped on the quarterbacks, but there was plenty to spread around. As good as the offensive line was in run blocking, they were the opposite in pass blocking, ranking #104 in sack rate, 14th worst in the entire FBS on standard downs. Three of Wisconsin’s four All-Big Ten linemen are gone. Wisconsin seems to always have more guys ready, but the pass blocking is a continuing concern, considering the pedigree of the guys who weren’t getting it done in front of the guys who will be starting this year. Hence the * above, meaning that Mertz would be the highest since 2007, if not for his classmate, Logan Brown, the second highest rated Wisconsin recruit ever. Offensive line, particularly for a guy not enrolling early to get in a college weight room, is a different animal, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Brown force his way into the starting group. The receiving group was thrown a curve early, when their best two receivers were suspended. Quintez Cephus is gone, but Danny Davis did return. He’s not a #1 guy, he just sort of was by default. The result was a group that only had 3 receivers record more than 1 reception on the season. All three are back, to be presumably better, but it’s still the glaring weakness on the offense. Expect Jake Ferguson, who emerged as a freshman to be the best tight end, to have an increased role. The defense should get back on track. A dip was expected after losing 8 starters off a group that was the best in the Big Ten, and top 5 nationally in every major category, but the gaffs from the newbies was noticeable. The Badgers had four All-Big Ten players, and all four graduated, but the rest of the group, who all returns, has to get a lot better. The overall numbers aren’t bad, but when things went south, they went south. In Wisconsin’s five losses they gave up 22, 24, 31, 37 and 38 points. 22 to Penn State is fine, but 38 to Michigan; 37 to Minnesota; 31 to Northwestern, one of the conference’s worst offenses; 24 to BYU, who was #72 in the FBS? Wisconsin allowed 30 or more points three times in the previous four seasons combined; and it was twice in Big Ten Championship Games, and once to Alabama. They did it three times in a month and a half last season, and not to particularly great offenses. This unit has more depth and experience, but less top end NFL talent than last year. We’ll see how that flip works.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| RB | Jonathan Taylor, Junior |
| TE | Jake Ferguson, Sophomore |
| C | Tyler Biadasz, Junior |
| . |
| LB | Zach Baun, Senior |
| S | Eric Burrell, Junior |
| S | Scott Nelson, Sophomore |
| 17. Texas Longhorns |
| #2 in Big XII |
For a team supposedly going through a transition phase, Texas has actually been fairly old each of the last two years. Rarely do you see a coach entering Year 3 needing to replace six starters on offense and eight starters on defense, but that’s where Tom Herman sits. The Longhorns did lose 4 games last year, but it was as impressive a four loss season as I can recall. The Maryland game was the opener, and seemed like eons ago. The Oklahoma State loss is a black eye. But the fluke late game Will Grier heroics loss to West Virginia, and the Big XII Championship loss, when they fell apart over the final 12 minutes are totally fine, and Texas was overall 5-2 against ranked teams (at the time), with wins over USC, TCU, Oklahoma, Iowa State and Georgia. It was that Georgia win that made it feel for the first time in forever like Texas was back. It was their first BCS/NY6 bowl game since the 2009 National Championship loss to Alabama. Since going to their first Cotton Bowl in 1943, Texas had only gone more than 4 years without playing in a major bowl once, the 6 year gap between the 1984 and 1991 Cotton Bowls. So to say Texas fans were starved for that was an understatement. The offense should continue to hum thanks to a quarterback who I think will be in New York City on December 14 in Sam Ehlinger. Ehlinger put it all together in 2018 after a few costly turnovers in key moments in 2017. He more than doubled his touchdown passes, while actually decreasing his interceptions, on substantially more attempts. He did all that while remaining a threat as a runner. Nobody was confusing him with Kyler Murray, he averaged less than 3 yards per carry, and didn’t have a run longer than 18 yards all season. But he had a nose for the end zone, unafraid to use his 6’3”, 235 pound frame, totaling 16 rushing touchdowns on the season, second most among quarterbacks, and first among non triple option quarterbacks. The next step is stretching the field more. Herman is going to live on the high percentage stuff, and getting the ball out quick, but the Longhorns need to at least be a threat to go over the top. They averaged just 11.7 ypc, which resulted in a ton of third downs, trying to dink and dunk their way down the field. That resulted in 207 third downs, more than any team in the Big XII. Fortunately it worked out, they converted 46.4% of their third downs, #13 in the nation, and 80% of their fourth down attempts, #2 nationally. But that’s a dangerous way to live, for an offense, that still with a mind like Herman’s and a talent like Ehlinger, was far too mediocre overall. He still has plenty of weapons. Tre Carter was fine, but the young talent at running back is better, if less experienced. Keaontay Ingram probably deserved more carries than he got last year, and the reports out of Austin are that he has improved on that by leaps and bounds. Even with Lil’Jon Humphrey leaving early for the NFL, there is a deep talent pool at receiver. If anything stops this team from returning to Arlington in December, it will probably be the defense, which has to replace eight starters from a unit who was better than their raw numbers a year ago. In terms of yards per play allowed, they were #3 in the Big XII, third against the run, fourth against the pass. Let’s start with the good. The safeties. I don’t think there’s a better group out there. Caden Sterns was Big XII Defensive Freshman of the Year, First Team All-Big XII, and a future First Round pick. Fellow freshman B.J. Foster, was third on the team in tackles for loss, despite being a backup safety. He was all over the field in the Sugar Bowl with Sterns out. And he probably still won’t start, because the other starter from last year, Brandon Jones, an All-Big XII player himself, is also back. If there’s a way to get all three of these guys on the field, defensive coordinator Todd Orlando needs to figure it out, because literally every other position is a massive question mark. Linebacker Jeff McCullough is the only player in the front seven with extensive experience.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| QB | Sam Ehlinger, Junior |
| C | Zach Shackleford, Senior |
| K | Cameron Dicker, Sophomore |
| . |
| S | Caden Sterns, Sophomore |
| S | Brandon Jones, Senior |
| S | B.J. Foster, Sophomore |
