Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

39. TCU Horned Frogs

#5 in Big XII

The last time TCU had an off year, 2013, they followed it by going 23-3 over the next two years, with a conference championship and a pair of top 7 national rankings.  So when the Horned Frogs followed up a disappointing 2016 with an 11-3 season, a #9 finish, and a Big XII Championship Game appearance, it looked like 2016 was just a blip.  They reached the top 15 of the polls in September last year, gave Ohio State all they could handle, but lost 6 of 8, including by 25 to Oklahoma and 37 to West Virginia.  Starting quarterback Shawn Robinson announced he was transferring, but I don’t think any TCU fans shed a tear.  He was fine, but never could put it all together, and his turnovers were a problem.  Mike Collins, a transfer from Penn, saw action in 9 games, and was willing to go down the field more, averaging 3 yards more per completion, but with a substantially lower completion percentage, albeit with the interceptions.  That said, Collins might be #4 on the depth chart right now.  True freshman Justin Rogers may have gotten a look last year, but he still wasn’t fully recovered from an injury his senior year of high school, so he wound up redshirting.  They brought in former Kansas State player, Alex Delton, as a grad transfer.  They also signed Max Duggan, a 4*, the highest rated player in their 2019 class, who enrolled early, and was on campus for spring ball.  The spring game did little to sort things out, with both Collins and Delton out injured, and Rogers still clearly not 100%.  Rogers looked to have the better arm and decision making over Duggan, but reports are that Duggan moved around well, and Rogers did not.  TCU has to travel to West Lafayette the second week of the season to play at Purdue, so ideally you’d want it figured out by then.  But, if not, the rest of September (Arkansas-Pine Bluff, SMU, Kansas, all at home) should give everyone plenty of opportunities.  All eyes are there, because quarterback looks to be the lone missing piece between 11-3 in 2017 and 7-6 in 2018.  The running backs are steady, Jalen Reagor might be the most dynamic player in the conference, and the offensive line, which returns four starters, allowed the fewest sacks in the conference.  The defense did graduate a lot of talent, but that has to just be plug and play at this point with Gary Patterson.  TCU didn’t finish #1 across the board again in the Big XII defensively (scoring, total, rushing, passing), slipping all the way to #2 in scoring and rushing, but I think that’s still plenty to challenge for a trip to Dallas.  The strength in right in the middle of that line with as good a pair of interior linemen as exists in the country.  Ross Blacklock suffered an August achilles injury last year that cost him the entire season.  If he is back and 100%, the 2017 Big XII Defensive Freshman of the Year joins all-Big XII tackle Corey Bethley in the middle.  TCU held opponents to 3.6 ypc running last year, without him.  But this is the Big XII, and if you can’t get after the passer, your defense is in trouble, no matter how good you are on the line.  Bethley racked up 5 sacks last year, but the graduation of both ends, who finished first and second on the team in both sacks and tackles for loss are gone.  Mix in the graduation of Ty Summers, who was their best pass rushing linebacker, and the one concern for this defense is going to be finding sacks.  I trust Patterson to get that straightened out, because he always does.  It comes down to the quarterback, because everything else seems to be in place, just like 2017 and 2018, and that one position resulted in a 4 win drop.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Darius Anderson, Senior
WR	Jalen Reagor, Junior
T	Lucas Niang, Senior
	.
DT	Corey Bethley, Junior
LB	Garret Wallo, Junior
CB	Jeff Gladney, Senior

I will guess UK at #38.

38. Boston College Eagles

#5 in ACC

Tough to figure out what to make of Boston College’s 2018 season.  I was all in on them, had them as a top 20 preseason team.  They got as high as #17 in early November, before ending the season on a 3 game losing streak, and their bowl game being cancelled.  So a 7-5 season is certainly not bad.  But what was their best win?  At Wake Forest?  They had 11 players on the all-conference teams, only Clemson had more from the ACC.  So considering the pits that this team was, just a couple years ago, having that much talent feels like a step in the right direction.  But I think it’s a half step backwards this year, with 10 of those 11 graduating, or leaving for the NFL.  Their best player, A.J. Dillon, is back for his third, and almost certainly final season in Chestnut Hill, after running for 2,700 yards over his first two seasons.  But how much can he shoulder?  He’s had 527 carries over two years, and his ypc dropped by 0.4 ypc from his freshman year.  He was held to 4.0 ypc in three of four November games, with the one exception being 56 yards on 12 carries against Clemson.  And when Dillon missed two games, Ben Glines ran for 197 yards on 6.0 ypc over those two games.  So was a lot of that on the offensive line?  An offensive line that returned all five starters from 2017, plus an all-ACC tight end?  Four of those six are now gone.  That sets the tone on both sides of the ball, where trench play goes from the team’s strength to a major question mark.  But a lot of my optimism was based on how talented and experienced the running game was, and that going from freshman to sophomore, quarterback Anthony Brown would vastly improve.  He really didn’t, struggling to complete only 55% of his passes, third worst among ACC starters.  The Eagles passing game was almost solely depended on the big play, averaging more yards per completion than any ACC school, save Georgia Tech.  The hope was that Kobay White and Jeff Smith, in their first seasons as starters, would separate themselves as targets.  While they did lead the team in receiving, it was more of a committee effort, with eight players tallying at least 12 receptions, but only two with more than 20, and none with more than 33.  The passing game is now without its biggest deep threat, in Smith, along with all-conference tight end Tommy Sweeney, so who compliments White, who now needs to be a 50 receptions type guy, is up for grabs.  Ben Glines, who plays both tailback and receiver, and filled in when Dillon was hurt, might be the best option, but first year coordinator Mike Bajakian would clearly prefer someone else step up so Glines isn’t counted on as the #2 at two positions.  Sophomore C.J. Lewis probably gets next crack.  Bajakian spent the last four years as an NFL quarterbacks coach, but had previously been coordinator under the Chip Kelly/Butch Jones duo, at Central Michigan, then Cincinnati, then Tennessee.  He coached a pro-style read-option offense that actually fits Brown’s skill set far better than former coordinator Scott Loeffler’s did.  So that is reason for optimism.  The problem is not just on the offensive line, but on the defensive as well, where Boston College graduates three all-conference players as well.  The Eagles don’t have any obvious replacements for Wyatt Ray and Zach Allen, who combined for 15.5 sacks and 26.5 tackles for loss on the edge.  Tanner Karafa, the lone returning starter, is a solid interior pass rusher.  The secondary was equally gutted, including cornerback Hamp Cheevers declaring early after leading the ACC with 7 interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown.    The Eagles were third in the ACC in ypp allowed last year, but this group looks to be a huge step back.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Anthony Brown, Junior
RB	A.J. Dillon, Junior
T	Ben Petrula, Junior
	.
DT	Tanner Karafa, Senior
LB	Isaiah McDuffie, Junior
LB	Max Richardson, Junior

37. Virginia Cavaliers

#4 in ACC

You can start to see Bronco Mendenhall’s program take shape, but now they need to learn how to finish.  After a 5-1 start in 2017, which included a dominating win on the blue turf in Boise, the Cavaliers lost 6 of their final 7.  Last year a 6-2 start saw them enter the polls at #23 going into November, the first time they had been ranked since the November 20, 2011 poll, and only the second poll they had appeared on since 2007, before losing three of four to finish the regular season, the lone win being over first year FBS program Liberty.  Arizona State transfer quarterback Bryce Perkins exceeded all expectations in his first year on campus.  Everyone knew he could run, so finishing third in the ACC in total offense isn’t a shock, but he was also third in completion percentage and passing efficiency, fourth in yards per attempt.  One one hand, you’d probably like to limit his 212 carries from a year ago, third most nationally among quarterbacks, but the problem is he is easily the best runner on the team with Jordan Ellis graduated.  Ellis and Perkins combined for 427 of the Cavaliers’ 499 carries last year (85.6%).  Their third leading rusher was a now graduated receiver, and fourth averaged 3.1 ypc on 26 attempts.  That 3.1 ypc back is P.K. Kier, who probably starts spring atop the depth chart by default, but I’d be surprised to see him there.  Lamont Atkins, who only got 4 carries last year, and incoming freshman Mike Hollins look to have more talent.  Not to undersell a guy who led the ACC in receptions and receiving touchdowns, but I’m less concerned about replacing Olamide Zaccheaus.  Virginia has guys ready to step up.  Hasise Dubois had 52 catches for 578 yards, and is a steady possession guy, and Joe Reed I think is ready for a breakout.  He’s already as good a returner as there is in the league, and even though he only had 25 receptions, he averaged nearly 19 yards a catch and 7 of them went for touchdowns.  Only 3 ACC players had more.  Bronco is a defensive guy, and you are really starting to see the impact he’s having on that side of the ball.  In 2017, Virginia was held back by a defense that finished 12th in the ACC in scoring, thanks to one of the worst run defenses in the nation, second worst in the ACC.  In 2018, even after ushering five senior starters out the door, the Hoos jumped up to third in the ACC in scoring defense and total defense, from 13th to 4th in rushing defense.  The continued improvement in the front seven is the story for this side of the ball going into 2019.  Chris Peace, the team’s best linebacker, graduated, but the rest of that front seven, a 3-4, returns intact.  Getting a full healthy season out of Jordan Mack, who missed four games last year, is critical.  He has finished second on the team in tackles each of the past two seasons, but that number was 114 in 2017, and just 66, in 2/3 of a season, last year.  The secondary is the only mild question mark, with the graduation of safety Juan Thornhill, who has been Virginia’s best and most versatile defender the past few years, moving to cornerback at times.  The corners are solid, led by Bryce Hall, and a deep group behind him, but safety is the glaring weakness defensively.  The schedule looks very manageable as well.  A road game in South Bend is tough, but Virginia should be big favorites in their other non-conference games.  Then in ACC play, they get Florida State and Louisville as their crossover games, quite possibly the two worst Atlantic Division teams.  S&P+ projects a 10-2 record, which would be the best season in a long time in Charlottesville.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Bryce Perkins, Senior
WR	Joe Reed, Senior
WR	Hasise Dubois, Senior
	.
LB	Jordan Mack, Senior
LB	Charles Snowden, Junior
CB	Bryce Hall, Senior

In Virginia’s case I agree with having a potential 10-2 starting lower down the hill at #37. They’ve just been too flakey down the stretch and lack mental toughness, a lot like Pittsburgh.

IMO, the ACC’s midsection is wide open enough to afford another Syracuse story, where a lower half team comes out of nowhere to haves 10 win season. Virginia could be this year’s version.

It will be interesting to see if anyone can have as big of a gap between 1 and 2 as the Sunbelt. Their number 2 was ranked 55th, and their number one is still on the board.

The ACC is almost out of teams, and will obviously have one in the top 5.

36. West Virginia Mountaineers

#4 in Big XII

It’s hard not to view 2018 as a wasted opportunity.  West Virginia had an elite passing attack, led by one of the top offensive minds in the country, and found themselves #7 in the country less than a week before Thanksgiving, in control of their Big XII Championship Game destiny, and lost back to back games to fall clear out.  They lost those two by a combined 7 points, and scored 97 points, but those 7 points changed the whole narrative of the season.  With Will Grier, David Sills and Gary Jennings all moving on, and Dana Holgorson jumping to a Group of 5 job at Houston, the easy write up is about how much the program is about to drop off.  Holgorson was a fine coach, and he wasn’t going to win defensive struggles, but he ignored it too much, his teams played too undisciplined, and ultimately what was his greatest accomplishment?  In seven years in the Big XII he lost five or more games five times, finished ranked only twice.  And it’s not as though they took a flier on his successor, hiring Troy head coach Neal Brown, who I actually think is an upgrade.  And I think West Virginia will be just fine, it just might look a little different, although both Brown and Holgorson cut their teeth in the Air Raid offense.  Quarterback certainly doesn’t appear to be a strength.  Jack Allison had a trial run in the Camping World Bowl, when Grier decided to sit out, and against Syracuse’s decidedly unremarkable defense he completed less than 50% of his passes, with an interception and no touchdowns.  They also added grad transfer Austin Kendall from Oklahoma.  Both players have the pedigree, but little supporting evidence at this level.  Brown has proven that he will adapt more to his talent than Holgorson did, and that means running the ball a lot.  The Mountaineers still have a great offensive line, even with the graduation of left tackle Yodny Cajuste.  They have three talented backs to spread carries between.  Kennedy McKoy got the most use last year (12.1 cpg), but Martell Pettway had the highest average per carry, and Leddie Brown was third on the team in rushing, while still averaging 8.3 carries per game.  It might surprise people that the Mountaineers had the third most effective run game in the Big XII last year, but it wouldn’t surprise them that West Virginia still only ran 46.05% of the time, the most pass happy offense, in a pass happy league.  So the talent is there to be a more ground focused team, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brown pivot more in that direction.  The defense finally has talent and experience in the secondary, particularly with new defensive coordinator Vic Koenning moving away from West Virginia’s long time 3-3-5 defense, into a four man secondary.  So 3/4 of that secondary will be manned by returning all-conference players.  Now how a secondary that allowed 8.0 ypc on 63.5% passing, both third worst in the conference, had that many all-conference players, I’m not sure.  They did create a lot of turnovers, 15 interceptions, second most in the Big XII, despite only facing the second fewest pass attempts.  They’ll have to produce, because the front seven likely won’t be as good, with linebacker David Long, 2018’s Big XII Defensive Player of the Year, deciding to go pro early.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Kennedy McKoy, Senior
T	Colton McKivitz, Senior
G	Josh Sills, Junior
	.
CB	Josh Norwood, Senior
CB	Keith Washington Jr., Senior
S	Kenny Robinson Jr., Junior