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122. San Jose State Spartans

#10 in Mountain West

Well, Mike MacIntyre is available again.  MacIntyre’s .432 winning percentage in his three years at the school is sadly the best of any coach who was there that long since Claude Gilbert posted a .558 winning percentage from 1984-89.  I don’t want to prematurely fire Brent Brennan, but after a 3-22 start in his first two years, he looks to be quickly approaching a status of being San Jose State’s next former coach.  There is some hope, as Brennan got some unexpected contributions from some underclassmen last year that maybe shows a glimmer of hope for 2019.  On the offense, that’s wideout Tre Walker, who was buried on the depth chart for the first half of the season with the Spartans returning all three starting receivers from 2017.  Walker wound up leading the team in receiving with 714 yards after totalling 6 catches for 122 yards and no touchdowns in the first half of the season.  Over the second half?  He put up over 100 yards in three of six games, including a 209 yard effort against Utah State, and had 33 catches for 592 yards and 5 touchdowns total over those six games.  You get that kind of production for a whole year, and he’ll find himself at some award banquets next year.  They need that production, because the Spartans are getting nothing on the ground.  Tyler Nevens as a sophomore, was serviceable, but that was it.  San Jose State was dead last in the FBS both in yards per carry (2.1) and rushing yards per game (61.5).  Take Nevins away, and the rest of the team combined for 184 yards (15.3 ypg) on 0.8 ypc.  Those are not typos.  On defense it was true freshman strongside defensive end Cade Hall.  Hall wasn’t on the two deep to begin the season, but looking back on articles from San Jose State “insiders” from August, he was certainly on the radar as a guy who could contribute early.  I think even the most optimistic of those writers would not have projected Hall to lead the team in sacks, he wasn’t even one of the 10 highest rated San Jose State recruits from 2018.  Granted part of that was due to the experience on the line, with all three starters returning from 2017 for their senior years.  Starting nose tackle Sailosi Latu was limited to just three games due to injury, and so Owen Roberts slid over to nose tackle, opening up a spot for Hall, who appeared to be undersized for a 3-4 defensive end at just 235 pounds, but didn’t play that way.  The next step is with the graduations of Roberts and Bryson Bridges, how will Hall handle being the guy that opposing offenses scheme their blocking against?

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Josh Love, Senior
RB	Tyler Nevens, Junior
WR	Tre Walker, Junior
	.
DE	Cade Hall, Sophomore
LB	Ethan Aguayo, Senior
LB	Jesse Osuna, Senior

121. Bowling Green Falcons

#12 in MAC

Yes Mike Jinks was 7-24 overall and 5-14 in the MAC in two and a half years at Bowling Green, a school coming off a MAC Championship, their second in three years, and three consecutive division titles, split between two coaches, when he was hired.  The Falcons went bowl-less in all three Jinks seasons, their longest streak since before Urban Meyer showed up, and suffered three consecutive 8+ loss seasons for the first time in school history.  I get all of that.  But when you hired Mike Jinks, a guy who had never coached outside the state of Texas, and aside from three seasons at Texas Tech as a running backs coach, had never coached outside the high school ranks, that it was, to use a cliche, an “outside the box” hire, for a midwest mid-major.  So if that’s the direction you want to go, you need to acknowledge that it’s a bit of a radical change, and give it more than two and a half years.  Jinks’ two recruiting classes were ranked #2 and #3 in the MAC.  His top three recruits last year were from Florida and Georgia.  There were eight Texas kids on the roster.  He was bringing in talent, and he was bringing it in from places Bowling Green didn’t typically do it.  But administration decided to move on, and make the safe hire of Scott Loeffler, a midwest guy, from Ohio, played for Michigan, had eight years of coordinator experience, the last seven at the Power 5 level.  It’s your typical MAC head coaching hire.  So is it another system overhaul, or can he harness the young talent that Jinks seemingly was beginning to fill the roster with, even if it’s still very young.  One thing he needs to do is pay at least a little attention to the defense.  It is not a surprise that when you stack a Texas high school coach onto what Dino Babers was doing, you get a program that has turned a blind eye to defense.  The Falcons gave up a league high 40.0 ppg on a league high 6.4 ypp.  The problems were mostly in the front seven, where teams ran on Bowling Green at 5.9 ypc, nearly a yard per carry more than anyone else in the MAC.  The Falcons were one of the worst defenses against the run in 2017, and had to replace all of their starters up the middle, so that was maybe expected.  Now that is flipped, with five returning starters in the front seven, including freshman Karl Brooks, who earned 8 starts, after being left off the August two deep, and led the team in sacks.  However the secondary, which actually held teams to just 167 passing yards per game, on a MAC best 52.7% completion rate, has to replace three starters, including both starting cornerbacks, and six players total from the two deep.  The back end was susceptible to the big play, with a MAC worst 14.4 yards per completion, which worked hand in hand with the low completion percentage, the throws teams were trying on them were a number of deeper routes.  Perhaps a corner was turned late, as they did hold Central Michigan to 13 and Akron to 6 points in November after allowing 35 or more points to all 9 previous opponents.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Jarret Doege, Junior
RB	Andrew Clair, Junior
G	Jack Kramer, Senior
	.
DE	Karl Brooks, Sophomore
LB	Kholbe Coleman, Junior
S	Jerry McBride, Senior

Sunday and Monday

120. New Mexico State Aggies

Independent

After ending the nation’s longest bowl drought at 57 years in 2017, it seemed clear that New Mexico State would take a step back in their first season in conference exile.  But falling all the way to 3-9, considering how terrible the schedule was, was farther than even they anticipated I assume.  The three wins came over a UTEP team that we’ve is spending its second season at the bottom of this list; a mediocre FCS team, and Liberty, in their first FBS season, who they lost to in a rematch that was played because it ain’t easy to find opponents as an FBS independent in the middle of nowhere.  The Aggies reached a bowl in 2017 by throwing the ball all over the field with Tyler Rodgers, finishing 6th in the FBS in passing yardage.  He was going to be hard to replace, and it’s clear Doug Martin wasn’t changing his system.  Now New Mexico did fall from 2nd in pass attempts in 2017, at 49.2 per game (behind only Mike Leach at Washington State), all the way down to 4th at 44.8, but when you are only completing 55.3% of your passes, that simply isn’t going to work.  With Jason Huntley and Christian Gibson in the backfield, New Mexico State should be better at running the football than they are, they are simply not built to block for it.  They have the size, three starters over 320 pounds, but they aren’t winning that line.  Their Power Success rate, which is conversions of 2 yards or less, was just 64%, #105 in the FBS, and their Stuff Rate, the percentage of carries stopped at or behind the line, is 22.6%, #111.  Their pass blocking numbers are all average, to above average, but Huntley is too good of a talent to be limited to the numbers he’s putting up running the ball.  That’s why they have found ways to use his multitude of talents to get him the ball other ways, namely 47 catches, which was the 4th most in the FBS by a running back; and on special teams where he recorded 3 kick return touchdowns, the only player in the FBS to accomplish that last year.  Defensively it starts up front, where the Aggies were elite at getting after the quarterback (#8 in the nation in standard down sack rate), while being miserable against the run (6th worst run defense in the nation).  In my opinion it’s because they are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole by running a 3-4 with mid-major players.  The typical problem at the college level, lack of size in the middle, is not here, Roy Lopez and Myles Vigne are each 315 pounds.  For this to work, Shane Jackson needs to generate more than 2 sacks and 4 tackles for loss, as their best outside linebacker.  Otherwise, let him put a hand on the ground, and let Wilcots just attack the quarterback from the other side, with less containment responsibilities.  It might serve them well to try and get more linemen and fewer linebackers on the field anyway, trying to replace 6 of 8 from last year’s two deep at the linebacker position.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Josh Adkins, Sophomore
RB	Jason Huntley, Senior
T	Sage Doxtater, Senior
	.
DE	Cedric Wilcots II, Senior
DT	Roy Lopez, Senior
S	Shamad Lomax, Senior

119. Central Michigan Chippewas

#11 in MAC

Just how badly did Central Michigan spiral into oblivion?  The Chippewas were so bad last year that John Bonamego, a Central Michigan alum, who called it his dream job, and who beat cancer during his time as coach, was fired despite reaching bowl games in each of his first three years.  But that’s what will happen when you come off the worst season in school history, going 1-11 overall, 0-8 in the MAC, the school’s first ever winless MAC campaign.  They now turn to Jim McElwain, who spent one season coaching under Jim Harbaugh after getting fired from Florida midway through his third season, in spite of reaching the SEC Championship Game in each of his first two years.  The problem at Florida, particularly for an offensive minded coach, is that McElwain was never able to field good offenses.  Wait until he gets a load of the mess he’s walking into now.  The Chippewas had easily the worst offense in the MAC a year ago, averaging just 15.0 ppg on 254 ypg, 3rd worst and 2nd worst in the FBS respectively.  The running game, at 3.2 ypc, deserves plenty of blame, but the real problem is the complete lack of a passing attack.  Central Michigan threw for just 4.5 ypa, with a 48.6% completion rate; per S&P+ the worst offense in the FBS in 2018.  It was musical chairs at quarterback, starting with Tony Poljan, who turned down Big Ten offers to play tight end or receiver, to try his hand at quarterback in the MAC.  He wound up getting benched for Tommy Lazzaro, and then after being reinserted following a season ending injury to Lazzaro, getting benched again.  It looks like after a one year trial run, he will be moved out to receiver.  He could hopefully provide a spark, as multiple Big Ten teams viewed him as worthy of an offer, so long as he didn’t play quarterback.  Getting Lazzaro back healthy, after only being fully healthy for 4 games last year should help too.  In those 4 games, the Chippewas averaged 21.0 ppg; which isn’t great, but still far better than the 12.0 they put up in the 8 he didn’t play in any of or all of.  They completely wasted what was actually a fairly solid defense, which was 2nd in the MAC, allowing just 5.0 ypp, and accounting for 4 of the 11 first team all-MAC defensive players.  Three of those 4 had remaining experience, and looked to be the backbone of what had a chance to be a bowl team in 2019, with even a little bit of offense.  Instead, both starting cornerbacks, Sean Bunting and Xavier Crawford declared early for the draft; and then Mike Danna, who tied for 2nd in the MAC in sacks, entered the transfer portal as a grad transfer.  Just to show the type of player he is, Michigan State, Iowa and Nebraska have apparently already contacted him.  So while you would assume a small step forward on offense with quarterback health, it’s going to be tough to expect the defense to be anywhere near the same level trying to replace seven starters.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Tommy Lazzaro, Senior
RB	Romello Ross, Senior
K	Ryan Tice, Senior
	.
LB	Michael Oliver, Senior
CB	Da'Quan Jamison, Senior
S	Devonni Reed, Sophomore

I have no idea why NMSU is still FBS, clinging onto the WAC in basketball.  Assuming they'd have them, dropping to FCS and joining the Big West across the board seems to make more sense with my extremely limited knowledge of the situation.

118. Connecticut Huskies

#12 in American

Randy Edsall returned to UConn in 2017, the program he built from a 4-7 FCS team in 1999 to a BCS conference champion and Fiesta Bowl participant in 2010*.  The team he has now looks farther from getting back to the Fiesta Bowl than the team he took over in 1999.  The Huskies just completed their worst season in school history, going 1-11, with no FBS wins, and allowing 10 of their 12 opponents to score at least 49 points.  So starting 10 players with remaining eligibility is to be taken with a grain of salt, when that defense gave up over 50 ppg on over 600 ypg, both obviously worst in the FBS.  They weren’t just the worst defense in the FBS, but gap between their  Defensive S&P+ and the 2nd worst, was larger than between the 2nd worst and the 17th worst.  Their Defensive S&P+ wasn’t just 2018 bad, it was historically bad, the worst in the Football Outsiders database (going back to 2005), with only the 2013 New Mexico State defense being in the same neighborhood.  Darrian Beavers, who led the team in sacks after being moved from linebacker to defensive end, already transferred within the division to Cincinnati.  The front seven remains a huge problem, and really the only place the Huskies don’t still have major issues is at safety, which they play three of in their 3-3-5 alignment.  Granted, Omar Fortt could move up to linebacker, depending on their new scheme.  The defense was so awful, that the simply bad offense looked almost competent by comparison.  But it was also last in the American in scoring, at just 22 ppg, thanks to the conference’s worst passing attack, which averaged just 6.1 ypa.  The test of whether you’d rather return several players from a dismal unit is put to the test between UConn’s defense and their passing offense.  Because while the Huskies’ terrible defense was young, the passing game was filled with veterans.  Their starting quarterback, both starting receivers, and the starting tight end were all seniors.  For good measure, the top returning receiver, tight end Tyler Davis, transferred to Georgia Tech.  Keyion Dixon, and his 11 receptions, lead all returning wideouts and tight ends.  The team is going to be built around a running game that features Kevin Mensah and Zavier Scott, who do compliment each other well.  Mensah, the workhorse back, and Scott the better all purpose back, who actually caught 33 passes out of the backfield.  They run behind an offensive line that returns four starters, who started all 12 games in 2018.  The only loss there is running backs coach Terry Richardson, who was probably the only coach UConn fans were happy with last year, but who left for the same job at Mississippi State.  The problem last year, and looks to be the problem again, is that the Huskies fall too far behind, too early, and they can’t lean on their strength.  Randy Edsall turns 61 right before the 2019 season begins, and while it seemed like he wanted to get back to Storrs as a job to ride into retirement, that decision may be made for him after this season.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Kevin Mensah, Junior
RB	Zavier Scott, Sophomore
T	Kyle Van Demark, Junior
	.
S	Tyler Coyle, Junior
S	Oneil Robinson II, Sophomore
S	Omar Fortt, Junior

Rice has fallen the farthest of the SWC teams. The rest are in the Aac or better.

116. Georgia State Panthers

#9 in Sun Belt

For a program that fancied itself on the rise, 2018 was a bucket of cold water for Georgia State.  After breaking through with the first bowl bid in program history in 2016, in only their fourth year in the FBS, they had a bit of a backslide in 2017, before surging to 7-5, and a bowl win in 2017.  While replacing their starting backfield was going to be something to overcome, overhaul getting to their second bowl game in a row, and third in four years seemed like a reasonable goal.  Instead, the Panthers stumbled to 2-10, recording only 1 FBS win, and losing 10 of 11 to finish, including 7 in a row to end the season.  Penny Hart who had recorded over 70 receptions, 1,100 yards and 8 touchdowns in each of his two healthy seasons in 2015 and 2017, around a lost season in 2016 due to an ACL injury, put up career lows across the board.  While he was eligible to either return for his redshirt senior season, or seek a grad transfer, he instead left for the NFL.  That puts a lot on Cornelius McCoy, who was a revelation with 35 receptions for 495 yards as a true freshman, but things get a lot harder when you no longer have the guy with multiple 1,000 yard seasons lining up on the other side of the field.  Some falls on Dan Ellington, who did make honorable mention all conference in his first year as a starter, but largely on quantity, not quality.  He averaged 192 passing ypg, which was somehow 3rd in the Sun Belt, but wasn’t even in the top 10 among qualified starters in passing efficiency.  There are only 10 teams in the conference.  The issues were that he also threw the third most passes in the conference, with the lowest completion percentage (59%) and the second lowest yards per attempt (7.0).  I’m guessing some voters just took a peak at the passing yardage leaders, and sent in their ballot.  Damn Sun Belt media.  But it wasn’t the offense that took the season from middling to bad, it was a defense that went from top 3 in the conference in 2017 in total, scoring and rushing defense, to dead last.  The passing defense, the achilles heel in 2017, became downright pathetic in 2018, trying to replace three starters, and surrendering leagues worsts in completion percentage (72.8%) and yards per attempt (9.5).  The front seven returned all four edge defenders, but somehow managed only 13 sacks on the season, for 67 yards, second fewest in the FBS.  The secondary looks to be just as much of an issue in 2019, and while the front seven simply has to better, the loss of Marterious Allen, who led the team in sacks and tackles for loss, suggests that creating any pressure in the backfield will continue to be a problem.  A bounceback likely sole depends on Ellington taking a big step forward in his second season starting and simply outscoring teams.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Dan Ellington, Senior
WR	Cornelius McCoy, Sophomore
T	Hunter Atkinson, Senior
	.
DE	Terry Thomas, Senior
LB	Ed Curney, Senior
P	Brandon Wright, Senior

There is still plenty of room outside of ELA's top 100 for the other eight CUSA teams.