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Topic: ELA 2019 Countdown

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ELA

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #308 on: April 22, 2019, 09:23:09 AM »
23. Auburn Tigers
#7 in SEC
I was very high on Auburn last year, and distinctly remember other disagreeing with my take strongly.  A season opening neutral site win over Washington appeared to vindicate me, and while a 1 point home loss to LSU is forgivable, going back to back with a two touchdown loss to Mississippi State, followed by a home loss at Tennessee, is not.  Their other two losses, at Georgia and at Alabama, were not horrible, but the margins of 17 and 31 were.  The offense never seemed to fit together right, between Malzahn’s style, Chip Lindsey’s style, and Jarrett Stidham’s skill set.  Those who watched the Music City Bowl saw how it was supposed to go, scoring 56 points in the first half.  Those who only saw that performance would probably struggle to figure out how Auburn finished 10th in the SEC in per play offense, and 11th in total offense.  So while Chip Lindsey is now the head coach at Troy, he was leaving either way.  He had already taken the same position at Kansas.  Guys don’t usually jump laterally from Auburn to Kansas on their own volition, even with the caveat that you are going from working for Gus Malzahn to Les Miles.  And Stidham declared early for the Draft.  But while the coordinator and quarterback are gone, there’s a chance the whole thing will click better this year.  Malik Willis returns after being the #2 quarterback last year, seeing action in 8 games.  But while Stidham wasn’t mobile enough for Malzahn, Willis’ arm is very problematic.  The job may go to true freshman Bo Nix, the #1 dual threat quarterback recruit in the nation last year.  If that isn’t enough, he just happens to be the son of Patrick Nix, the Auburn legend, who quarterbacked Terry Bowden’s undefeated team.  So you know who the fans want.  He can hurt you with his legs too, maybe not to the same degree as Willis, and Auburn should be running the ball plenty.  Kam Martin wasn’t nearly as effective in 2018 as he was with his limited touches in 2017, but getting him back for a senior year behind breakout freshman JaTarvious Whitlow and an offensive line that returns all five starters should help boost an offense that was an unthinkable 11th in the SEC in rushing.  It’s an offense that tried to fit it’s scheme to it’s talent, which is commendable when so many stubborn coaches try to fit their talent into their scheme, but at Auburn it simply didn’t work, and Malzahn did not like going from #7 to #26 to #63 over the past three years in terms of run call rate.  Between the talent set of the quarterback, the depth at running back, and the experience on the line, this team should throw the ball far less anyway, but mix in the mess at receiver, and it’s even more obvious.  They had a great possession-deep threat combo between the graduated Ryan Davis (69 catches, 7.9 ypc) and the early departed Darius Slayton (35 catches, 19.1 ypc), but now have to lean more on Seth Williams and Anthony Schwartz, who were productive freshmen, but have to grow up quickly.  On defense it starts and stops with the line, which could be the best in the nation.  It was already in the running for that title if projected first round pick Derrick Brown had left early, as expected.  Instead, he shocked Tiger fans by returning for his senior year to push that group over the top.  Even with Jamel Dean turning pro, the secondary still should be good.  The linebackers are a major concern though, after starting three seniors a year ago.  The projected starters entering the spring combined for 37 tackles, no sacks, no interceptions, in limited action last season.  Omen Pappoe, the #1 rated outside linebacker recruit in the country, is enrolled early, and has a chance to start from Day 1.
KEY PLAYERS
RBJaTarvious Whitlow, Sophomore
WRSeth Williams, Sophomore
TPrince Tega Wanogho, Senior
.
DENick Coe, Junior
DTDerrick Brown, Senior
SDaniel Thomas, Senior

Cincydawg

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #309 on: April 22, 2019, 09:39:07 AM »
Auburn again looks to me like an 8-5 kind of team, so 23rd is about that.  They have a shot at upsetting UGA in Auburn I think which would help their image.

ELA

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #310 on: April 22, 2019, 11:04:33 AM »
Yeah, I think in my mind Auburn was worse last year than they wound up actually being, and I'm not sure why.  Losing to Tennessee at home is terrible, and Mississippi State's offense was so bad, that you shouldn't lose to them, even in Starkville by 14 points, but the loss itself isn't that bad.  Then LSU by 1 at home, then in Athens and Tuscaloosa, again, last two, it's margin, not the L.  So if just flip the Tennessee result, it's 8-4, with 3 "good" losses, and one fine one.  Maybe it's just that I thought SO highly of them preseason?

Cincydawg

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #311 on: April 22, 2019, 11:07:34 AM »
Preseason folks have been pushing Auburn for some reason for years how.  I stopped buying 4-5 years ago, seeing them as a somewhat dangerous, but ultimately 8-5 kind of team, much like South Carolina.  They have some pieces, but they rarely "fit", and I think the HS is not great.  I think you have them about right this time, which perhaps mean they go 11-1 and upset Bama again.

CatsbyAZ

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #312 on: April 22, 2019, 11:54:41 AM »
ELA, I don’t worry much about Washington’s defensive losses. Petersen & Staff’s combination of recruiting and player development is so far ahead of the rest of the conference that I don’t doubt that even with a lot of new starters they won’t finish in the top 1 or 2 in PAC 12 defensive efficiency. Remember after the 2015 season they lost a lot of bodies to the NFL and it was their reloaded defense that anchored their run into the national playoffs. It’s the Huskie offense that’s the worry. Even with a loaded backfield last year they didn’t look that great.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #313 on: April 22, 2019, 12:18:42 PM »
Auburn appears to have plenty of talent. Certainly enough to make Purdue look silly in the bowl game. 

I think Auburn is one of those teams that if they're in sync can be tremendous, but they don't seem to put it together every week. Not sure why... Some sort of coaching issue?

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #314 on: April 22, 2019, 08:44:04 PM »
All of a sudden the SEC are just dropping like flies. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

Cincydawg

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #315 on: April 23, 2019, 08:09:53 AM »
All of a sudden the SEC are just dropping like flies.
Some may have lasted longer than I would have had them, USCe and UK in particular.  That said, USCe might well finish 8-5.  I'd put UK more at 6-7.  We're all mostly guessing of course, and no one else does as much "leg work" as ELA anyway.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #316 on: April 23, 2019, 08:46:50 AM »
I just enjoy the ebb and flow. None of the ACC teams got posted until well into the 80s, but then a very limited few were able to crack the Top 25. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

ELA

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #317 on: April 23, 2019, 08:53:37 AM »
22. Cincinnati Bearcats
#2 in American
While things appeared to be slowly turning around on the field, and in recruiting, I don’t think anyone expected a Cincinnati program, who had gone 3-13 in conference play over the previous two seasons, to go 11-2, and be playing Central Florida the weekend before Thanksgiving in a de facto conference title game, with ESPN College Gameday in attendance.  Cincinnati was outclassed in that game, but the season, which included wins over UCLA and Virginia Tech, where their only other loss was in overtime at Temple, who was 7-1 in conference, cannot be called anything but a rousing success.  It was not as though the 2017 Cincinnati team was young, and just needed a year of growth.  Particularly on offense, it was the exact opposite.  Really the only thing that seemed certain was that Hayden Moore was returning as quarterback.  Fickell thought otherwise, and pulled Moore after only two series, which included a fumble on a sack that gave UCLA a short field for a touchdown.  Redshirt freshman Desmond Ridder was inserted, and the Bearcats outscored UCLA 26-10 the rest of the way for the win.  Ridder was not great, by QBR it turned out to be his second worst game of the season, but Cincinnati won, and the job was Ridder’s, who went on to win AAC Freshman of the Year.  He helped turn around an offense that finished dead last in both total offense and scoring offense in the AAC in 2017, to finish fourth in each in 2018.  Same for a rushing offense that jumped from second worst, also up to fourth, bolstered by his running ability, and the emergence of Michael Warren II.  Warren entered fall practice behind Gerrid Doaks on the depth chart, but took advantage of Doaks’ groin injury which held him out all season, to finish second in the conference with 1,353 rushing yards.  If Doaks is back to 100%, and with Ridder having a better grasp of the offense, the Cincinnati run game could be electric.  It may have to be, because Kahlil Lewis was the only threat they had on offense last year, and he graduated.  They do have an all-conference tight end in Josiah Deguara.  Whether or not the conference’s best defense maintains its level of play depends on how quickly a very inexperienced line comes together.  The Bearcats ran our four all-conference seniors on the line last year, which shut opponents run games down, allowing just 3.3 ypc and 102.4 ypg, both best in the conference, and top ten nationally.  In S&P+ they were #6 nationally in run defense, particularly strong in short yardage situations, allowing just 47.8% successful conversions, 2nd best in the nation.  The strength of the defense may simply shift to the back seven, which was no slouch itself last year.  The Bearcats had the conference’s top pass efficiency defense, allowing just 48% opponents completion percentage, and they only lose one starter from the back seven, returning the entire secondary intact.  Not only is the entire starting secondary back, three of them are still only juniors this year.  They do need to get better at creating pressure.  For how good they were elsewhere, they shouldn’t have been as middling as they were in that department.  Central Florida is still the class of the American, and proved it last year when they met up, but Cincinnati is closing the gap.  You do wonder if they can keep Fickell if a Big Ten team comes calling.  Houston raised the bar for what AAC schools are willing to do to compete with the Power 5.
KEY PLAYERS
QBDesmond Ridder, Sophomore
RBMichael Warren II, Junior
TEJosiah Deguara, Senior
.
LBPerry Young, Senior
SJames Wiggins, Junior
PJames Smith, Junior

Cincydawg

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #318 on: April 23, 2019, 09:01:41 AM »
The general overview is interesting and informative of course.  ELA might have a team "we" overlooked higher than expected and that gets interesting too.  I'm dubious about Syracuse, but I don't know much about them this year, so I'll wait, perhaps they are next.  Six SEC teams remain, so statistically they should show up often somewhere with only 22 spots left.  I presume Bama and UGA will last a while, along with LSU and A&M.  Clemson will last of course, and for good reason.  

Texas will be interesting, high expectations and at times that third season is a bit of a step back.


ELA

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #319 on: April 24, 2019, 08:28:18 AM »
21. Mississippi State Bulldogs
#6 in SEC
I was higher than most on Mississippi State last year, although I didn’t think their defense would be even as good as it was, and I didn’t think Nick Fitzgerald and the offense would regress as much as they did.  Having seen what Joe Moorhead did with what seemed to be a broken offense in Happy Valley, I’m still a believer that he’ll get that thing figured out.  You had a senior three year starting quarterback in Nick Fitzgerald, who became more and more of a runner each year.  His pass attempts, passing yardage and passer rating fell every year.  His completion percentage, yards per attempt and touchdowns were all worse as a senior than they were as a sophomore.  So what went up?  His rush attempts.  Up to 221 last year, but with a ypc that was a full 2 yards lower than it was as a sophomore.  So while the Bulldogs lose their quarterback, they return a lot of the other pieces, and overall I think the unit will actually be better.  Junior Keytaon Thompson, who saw action in nine games as Fitzgerald’s backup a year ago is probably the frontrunner to replace him.  But if the problem with the offense was Fitzgerald’s arm, then Thompson sure doesn’t look like the answer.  He completed just 46% of his passes last year (although he did have 6 touchdowns to just 1 interception), but averaged 9.4 yards per carry on the ground on 24 carries.  Incoming 4* recruit Garrett Shrader enrolled early, and may be a factor in the race.  He reminds me a little bit of a bigger Trace McSorley.  He can beat you with his legs if he needs to, got a bit of a gun slinger edge to him, but probably has a better arm than anyone on the roster.  Oh, and McSorley is 6’0”, Shrader is 6’5”.  Kylin Hill can expect to see his usage increase.  He led all running backs with 117 carries, but was in a bit of a time share with returning starter Aeris Williams, and still had over 100 fewer carries than Fitzgerald.  With both Williams and Fitzgerald gone, Hill needs to get a lot more touches.  He was 6th in the SEC among qualified players, with 6.3 ypc, and was also the team’s second leading receiver in catches, with 22 receptions.  His 8.0 yards per catch needs to improve.  If he has those hands, he needs to actually be a weapon with them.  Balance is the key from a unit that was #6 in the nation in Rushing S&P+, but #93 in Passing.  The defense has to overcome the loss of a historic level of NFL talent in Starkville.  The Bulldogs potentially have three first round picks from the defense gone, and four guys who will likely be drafted.  Oddly though, the cupboard is not bare, just get ready to meet these linebackers.  Middle linebacker Errol Thompson, looks like the next star ready to step up.  He probably should have been all-SEC last year, but was lost in the Bulldogs’ defensive star shuffle.  He is an elite run stopper, who pairs well with the athletic Willie Gay Jr.  Gay was simultaneously second on the team in sacks, while tying for the team lead in interceptions.  Having the always reliable, always in position Thompson, next to the uber athlete, loose cannon, Gay, works really well.  Leo Lewis rounds out the unit.  Last year some said Mississippi State’s starting defensive line and secondary compared to any of the top ones in the nation, Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, whoever.  The Bulldogs just lacked the depth of those programs.  We are about to find out just how much depth Mississippi State had, because the program is starting nearly from scratch in those two areas.
KEY PLAYERS
RBKylin Hill, Junior
WROsirus Mitchell, Junior
TStewart Reese, Junior
.
LBErrol Thompson, Junior
LBWillie Gay Jr., Junior
CBCameron Dantzler, Junior

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #320 on: April 24, 2019, 08:34:04 AM »
So ELA's Top 20 has...

5 SEC
5 Big Ten (although one of them is the Wolverines) 
3 Pac 12
3 Big XII
2 ACC 
1 Independent
.
1 AAC
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

bayareabadger

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #321 on: April 24, 2019, 08:38:38 AM »
Some may have lasted longer than I would have had them, USCe and UK in particular.  That said, USCe might well finish 8-5.  I'd put UK more at 6-7.  We're all mostly guessing of course, and no one else does as much "leg work" as ELA anyway.
If USCe gets that team to 8-5 with that schedule, they might have to give him a raise. Though I suppose there is a way to do it in an unimpressive manner. 

 

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