So, an additional question would be "How can the Biden campaign recover and potentially win the election?"
You have CNN out there going full bore, multiple Democrats in Congress, a ton of folks "behind the scene", even folks on MSNBC now. I don't see any path back to "normalcy" for the campaign where everyone kind of forgets all this or decides it was not much of anything.
This and this:
Reading the polls and donor support matters, and will matter a lot. I don't see how Biden can survive all of this, much less be competitive in the election.
Are interesting questions but I think you have perhaps underestimated the polarization of the US Electorate.
I took the #'s from 538's site a couple days ago so this isn't 100% current but I think it is close enough and mostly post-debate.
Electoral Votes where the margin is >12%:
- Biden leads Trump 167-125
Electoral Votes where the margin is >8%:
- Biden leads Trump 191-132
Electoral Votes where the margin is >6%:
- Biden leads Trump 209-189
Electoral Votes where the margin is >4%:
- Biden leads Trump 225-219
What I am getting at here is that the Democrat (whoever it is) has something of a "safety net" somewhere between 167-225 EV's. Here are the Democrat's 167 surest EV's:
- 3EV's in DC: DC has NEVER voted R and went for Biden 92-5 in 2020
- 3 EV's in VT: VT went for Biden 66-31 in 2020 and hasn't voted R since (barely) voting for Bush over Dukakis in 1988
- 11 EV's in MA: MA went for Biden 66-32 in 2020 and hasn't voted R since (barely) voting for Reagan over Mondale in 1984
- 10 EV's in MD: MD went for Biden 65-32 in 2020 and hasn't voted R since (barely) voting for Bush over Dukakis in 1988
- 54 EV's in CA: CA went for Biden 63-34 in 2020 and hasn't voted R since (barely) voting for Bush over Dukakis in 1988
- 4 EV's in HI: HI went for Biden 64-34 in 2020 and hasn't voted R since voting Reagan over Mondale in 1984
- 1 EV in ME 1st District: ME's 1st District went for 60-37 in 2020
- 4 EV's in RI: RI went for Biden 59-39 in 2020 and hasn't voted R since (barely) voting for Reagan over Mondale in 1984
- 7 EV's in CT: CT went for Biden 59-39 in 2020 and hasn't voted R since (barely) voting for Bush over Dukakis in 1988
- 28 EV's in NY: NY went for Biden 61-38 in 2020 and hasn't voted R since voting for Reagan over Mondale in 1984
- 3 EV's in DE (Biden's home state): DE went for Biden 59-40 in 2020 and hasn't voted R since voting for Bush over Dukakis in 1988
- 12 EV's in WA: WA went for Biden 58-39 in 2020 and hasn't voted R since voting for Reagan over Mondale in 1984
- 8 EV's in OR: OR went for Biden 56-40 in 2020 and hasn't voted R since voting for Reagan over Mondale in 1984
- 19 EV's in IL: IL went for Biden 58-41 in 2020 and hasn't voted R since voting for (barely) voting for Bush over Dukakis in 1988
For reference:
- Ronald Reagan died June 5, 2004
- George HW Bush died November 30, 2018
- Walter Mondale died April 19, 2021
There are NO living Republicans who have ever carried any of the above states in a Presidential Election and Michael Dukakis who will turn 91 just before the election this fall is the only living Democrat to have ever lost any of the above states in a Presidential Election.
My point here is that I just can't see Trump or any other Republican getting beyond "striking distance" from Biden or any other Democrat. I think the Democrat literally no matter who it is can safely rely on at least the above districts and their 167 EV's. Realistically I think the same applies to NJ, CO, NM, and VA as well and that brings the D (whoever it is) to a minimum of 209 EV's. Maine, New Hampshire, and Minnesota are arguably among that group and if you include them then any D has 225 EV's in the bank before the campaign even starts and thus only needs 45 to win.
For that reason I just don't see this getting beyond "striking distance" so I think the election will be at least theoretically competitive.