header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Does defense still win Championships?

 (Read 3694 times)

rolltidefan

  • Global Moderator
  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 2219
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #56 on: January 05, 2023, 01:37:44 PM »
you're not wrong, but there were 70-80 teams who's offense was worse than that, scoring wise.

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18872
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #57 on: January 05, 2023, 02:10:24 PM »
1992 Bama offense was Derrick Lassic and 11 other guys who got to be on a team with Derrick Lassic. 
See, I think their offense was more Antonio Langham pick-6s and opponents punting it to David Palmer. 
.
That Bama team was amazing.  It beat Southern Miss 17-10, while allowing only 54 total yards.  They had to get the punter to throw a TD pass, because Barker stunk and threw a pick-6.  Southern Miss took the lead on a 3-yard drive they were gifted, already in FG range.
.
Vandy ran for 138 yards on them....but it took 61 carries, lol.  
.
The Tide's defense WAS their offense.  They fumbled 6 times vs So.Miss!  Just utter ineptitude!  Even in an impressive performance vs Arkansas, they fumbled 5 times.  Then there's the LA Tech game....167 total yards, didn't cross LT's 18 yard line all game long.  How did they win?  By holding Tech to -8 yards rushing, kicking 2 FGs, and a Palmer punt return TD.
Bama ran 44 times for 67 yards.  2.5 yards per play (running+passing).  
Hot garbage.
.
But they went 13-0.  I'd have to say that even today, if you have '92 Bama's defense, you could win a NC.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2023, 02:28:23 PM by OrangeAfroMan »
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37556
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #58 on: January 05, 2023, 02:48:04 PM »
you could, until you ran into Joe Burrow ;)
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18872
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #59 on: January 05, 2023, 03:21:28 PM »
you could, until you ran into Joe Burrow ;)
If 2019 Auburn could hold him to 23 points, I have no doubt about what '92 Bama would be perfectly able.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MikeDeTiger

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 2990
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #60 on: January 05, 2023, 03:35:30 PM »
True but 37 is still a LOT of points by the standards of 20 or more years ago and Michigan's defense was one of the best in the country this year.

....

My argument here is that teams can no longer succeed in that fashion. Georgia and Michigan had great defenses this year. TCU scored 37 on Michigan's defense (not counting defensive scores) and Ohio State scored 41 on Georgia’s defense. Michigan needed more offense to beat TCU and Georgia only beat Ohio State because they were able to put up 42 points.

You got me thinking about the bcs game between LSU and Oklahoma in 2003.  Both sides of the ball were great for each team.  OU had the #1 defense while LSU had the #1 scoring defense.  Both teams had soul-crushing defensive lines.  OU had a boa-constrictor type scheme reminiscent of many of Alabama's recent teams, while LSU had an encyclopedia of insane blitzes.  

But OU had as much buzz for their offense.  They hung half a hundred like 6 times, which we probably wouldn't blink at today, but that was hot stuff for 2003.  They just ran over people and/or took their top off.  LSU wasn't thought of as explosive even by 2003 standards, but they were extremely efficient, averaging 35 ppg prior to the title game against OU, and they routinely piled up those points in the first half as a matter of gameplan.  Saban liked to blitzkrieg teams early on and then let his defense and special teams account for boring second halves to kill the clock.  There were a couple of teams--notably Florida and Ole Miss--that gave LSU's offense problems, but overall they did well.  OU just trucked everybody they played, until K-State in the B12CG.  

Obviously the defenses prevailed in their match, each offense scoring only 14 points.  

I don't mean to diminish either of those defenses--they really were great--but it's my belief that today's best offenses would easily put 30 on them, probably at a minimum.  As good as those offenses were, they didn't offer enough conflict or confusion for a defense and were much easier for the defenses to diagnose pre-snap.  And....caveat: I don't know this for a fact....like I previously mentioned, I believe QBs White and Mauck were only reading half the field at a given time, and QBs today aren't nearly so confined to that and will more often find and exploit busts or a winning matchup on the play. 

Where I think things have changed the most is in how defenses cause the most havoc and what QBs can do to mitigate it.  Both of those defenses caused havoc on the line and made life miserable for QBs.  And that's partly because White, Mauck and their contemporaries wilted when guys came free or whipped the lineman in front of them.  QBs today look way more comfortable facing enormous pressure consistently and still keep the chains moving.  

The 2018 (?) title game between Clemson and Alabama was really something.  Clemson couldn't run well, and Alabama teed off on Trevor Lawrence and they knocked him off his spot or put him on the run a lot of the day.  In days gone by, that's a landslide victory for Alabama.  But Lawrence burned them over, and over and over, a little at a time.  Add in a few turnovers by Bama, and Clemson wins big without even being able to run much or protect the QB like you'd want.  Stetson Bennett just did it to us in the SECCG....LSU harassed him well enough in the early goings and did a good job stuffing their run....Bennett just kept hitting plays under duress and c'est la vie.

MikeDeTiger

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 2990
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #61 on: January 05, 2023, 03:36:21 PM »
If 2019 Auburn could hold him to 23 points, I have no doubt about what '92 Bama would be perfectly able.

Incorrect, for several reasons.  

2019 LSU would drop 40 on '92 Bama, and that's if they got tired of scoring.  

bayareabadger

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 7867
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #62 on: January 05, 2023, 04:58:25 PM »
Saban was doing it before relenting and joining in with Tua at QB. 
.
I'm reminded of 2012 Florida, which fits the bill you described.  Under Will Muschamp, defensive guru, the offense's job was literally to just not turn the ball over.  They went 11-1 and with a little different luck, could have been 12-0.  Notre Dame was that type of team that year.  Here's some of their outcomes:
20-17
20-3
13-6
20-13
17-14
21-6
They relied on their defense, only scored 30+ three times all year.
It got them to the NCG where they lost.  I don't think it was due to the type of team they were, just a massive talent disparity with Bama. 
.
But that's 10 years ago now.  Good teams, even ones with seemingly unremarkable offenses, tend to average at least 30-35 points per game nowadays.  It seems like a program that has a fluke defensive peak season is hot garbage on offense and goes 7-5 (Iowa, Illinois, et al).
That bit about Bama is, kind wrong on several fronts. They went spread well before Tua. They also put up some bit numbers with those pro-style attacks. (I’d have to dig deeper into the numbers, but I think the 2015 team might have been the worst offensive title team, which was still on the spread side of things, albeit with a so-so QB)

That UF team was something. 73rd in points per drive, 87th in yards per play. Maybe a bit lucky to be where they were, though the advanced stats like em a good bit.



OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18872
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #63 on: January 05, 2023, 06:03:47 PM »
That bit about Bama is, kind wrong on several fronts. They went spread well before Tua. They also put up some bit numbers with those pro-style attacks. (I’d have to dig deeper into the numbers, but I think the 2015 team might have been the worst offensive title team, which was still on the spread side of things, albeit with a so-so QB)

That UF team was something. 73rd in points per drive, 87th in yards per play. Maybe a bit lucky to be where they were, though the advanced stats like em a good bit.



I feel like Saban was doing a trial run pre-Tua.  You're completely right about what you said, but I don't feel like he thought "fuck it, let's go all in" on the offensive trend until Tua.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18872
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #64 on: January 05, 2023, 06:04:11 PM »
Incorrect, for several reasons. 

2019 LSU would drop 40 on '92 Bama, and that's if they got tired of scoring. 
Oh, okay.  My mistake.  Because you say so.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18872
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #65 on: January 05, 2023, 06:21:08 PM »
Here's how good that defense was:
They blew out the #1 team and won the NC with their QB going 5-14, 0 TD, 2 INT and only 63 yards passing.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37556
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #66 on: January 05, 2023, 09:43:22 PM »
Largest margin of victory in National Championships (1998-2021) & #1 vs. #2 Bowls (pre-1998)
+38 Nebraska ‘95
+36 USC ‘04
+32 Nebraska ‘71
+28 Clemson ‘18
+28 Alabama ‘20
+28 Alabama ‘12
+27 Florida ‘06
+23 Miami ‘01
+22 Ohio St ‘14
+22 Texas ‘63
+21 Alabama ‘11
+21 Alabama ‘92
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Kris60

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 2514
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #67 on: January 05, 2023, 10:52:25 PM »
See, I think their offense was more Antonio Langham pick-6s and opponents punting it to David Palmer. 
.
That Bama team was amazing.  It beat Southern Miss 17-10, while allowing only 54 total yards.  They had to get the punter to throw a TD pass, because Barker stunk and threw a pick-6.  Southern Miss took the lead on a 3-yard drive they were gifted, already in FG range.
.
Vandy ran for 138 yards on them....but it took 61 carries, lol. 
.
The Tide's defense WAS their offense.  They fumbled 6 times vs So.Miss!  Just utter ineptitude!  Even in an impressive performance vs Arkansas, they fumbled 5 times.  Then there's the LA Tech game....167 total yards, didn't cross LT's 18 yard line all game long.  How did they win?  By holding Tech to -8 yards rushing, kicking 2 FGs, and a Palmer punt return TD.
Bama ran 44 times for 67 yards.  2.5 yards per play (running+passing). 
Hot garbage.
.
But they went 13-0.  I'd have to say that even today, if you have '92 Bama's defense, you could win a NC.
When I think of all time great college defenses ‘92 Bama is still the first one that pops in my mind.

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17702
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #68 on: January 05, 2023, 10:59:00 PM »
When I think of all time great college defenses ‘92 Bama is still the first one that pops in my mind.
I think of the unbeaten, unscored-upon 1895 Texas Longhorns.

bayareabadger

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 7867
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #69 on: January 05, 2023, 11:20:20 PM »
I feel like Saban was doing a trial run pre-Tua.  You're completely right about what you said, but I don't feel like he thought "fuck it, let's go all in" on the offensive trend until Tua. 
So, here's your batch of national title teams, by points per drive and yards per play:
2009: 25th/30th
2011: 19th/12th
2012: 3rd/6th
2015: 45th/47th
2017: 15th/14th
2020: 1st/2nd

2014 was when they went spread, albeit a a power spread with a decent dual-threat passer and bell-cow type pass game. The next year, they didn't have the dynamic QB, so it was kind of a pro-style, distributor QB spread, with one powerhouse back, one good backup and a trio of really good pass catchers. Then they went more power spread with an underclassman for two years.

I think what changed more than anything was they finally got a really, really good QB. They had some really nice pro-style offenses, and honestly the worst title winning offense was a spread, just one without a first-round QB. 

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.