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Topic: Divisional Races and Bowl Plans after week 10

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medinabuckeye1

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Divisional Races and Bowl Plans after week 10
« on: November 04, 2019, 11:07:53 AM »
B1G-East:

  • 5-0 Ohio State:  Has earned a mulligan and can lose any game other than Penn State and still be assured of a spot in Indianapolis.  
  • 5-0 Penn State:  Has earned a mulligan and can lose any game other than Ohio State and still be assured of a spot in Indianapolis.  
  • 4-2 Michigan:  Needs a lot of help.  Their shortest route to Indianapolis is to win out and 1) for tOSU to beat PSU, and 2) for PSU to lose one additional divisional game (either IU or RU), and 3) for tOSU to lose one additional game (either UMD or RU).  That would create a three-way tie at 7-2 that Michigan would ultimately win based on a superior divisional record.  
  • 4-2 Indiana:  The Hoosiers' situation is somewhat worse than the Wolverines because both of the Hoosiers' losses were in the Division.  They are mathematically alive but they need even more help than Michigan needs.  
  • 2-3 Michigan State:  The Spartans are probably mathematically eliminated.  They can do no better than a tie with the tOSU/PSU winner and they lost to both of those teams.  Any mathematical chance that they might have is, at best, extraordinarily unlikely.  
  • 1-5 Maryland and 0-6 Rutgers are officially mathematically eliminated as they cannot catch the leaders.  
B1G-West:
  • 5-0 Minnesota:  The Gophers have earned at least one mulligan.  They can lose any one game or any two games not including their game against the IA/UW winner and still be assured of a spot in Indianapolis.  
  • 3-2 Wisconsin:  If the Badgers beat Iowa this weekend they just need Minnesota to lose any game prior to their season-ending showdown with the Gophers and they can get to Indianapolis by winning out.  
  • 3-2 Iowa:  If the Hawkeyes beat Wisconsin this weekend and Minnesota next weekend they just need Minnesota to lose any of their remaining games and they can get to Indianapolis by winning out.  
  • 3-3 Illinois:  The last three-and-a-half games the Illini have looked the part of a contender but they just dug themselves too big of a hole before that.  With their loss to Minnesota the Illini likely need the Gophers to lose out plus they also need Wisconsin to lose again and they need to win out themselves.  
  • 2-4 Purdue and Nebraska:  Both the Boilermakers and Cornhuskers are probably mathematically eliminated because they can do no better than a tie with the Gophers and both teams already lost to Minnesota.  In theory there might be some complex multi-team ties including Minnesota that one or both of these teams could win but the chances of that happening are remote at best.  
  • 0-6 Northwestern:  The defending B1G-W Champion Wildcats are officially eliminated. 

There was very little change in the above last weekend because all of the leaders were either off or won.  

Bowl position*:
  • 8-0 Ohio State:  clinched
  • 8-0 Penn State:  clinched
  • 8-0 Minnesota:  clinched
  • 7-2 Indiana:  clinched
  • 7-2 Michigan:  clinched
  • 6-2 Iowa:  clinched
  • 6-2 Wisconsin:  clinched
  • 5-4 Illinois:  The Illini need just one win in their final three games (@MSU, @IA, vsNU) so they should make it.  
  • 4-4 Michigan State:  The Spartans need two wins in their final four games (vsIL, @M, @RU, vsUMD) so they should make it.  
  • 4-5 Nebraska:  The Cornhuskers need to win two of their last three (vsUW, @UMD, vsIA) so it is possible but unlikely.  
  • 3-6 Purdue:  The Boilermakers' win over Nebraska keeps their hopes alive for at least another week but they need to win out (@NU, @UW, vsIU) so it very unlikely.  
  • 3-6 Maryland:  The Terps need to win out (@tOSU, vsUNL, @MSU) so there is almost no chance.  
  • 2-7 Rutgers and 1-7 Northwestern:  These two are eliminated.  

*On the above list I have ignored the possibility of a 5-7 team getting a waiver.  

 

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