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Topic: Did the Committee get it right, if not, how so?

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medinabuckeye1

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Did the Committee get it right, if not, how so?
« on: December 09, 2025, 10:29:12 PM »
After thinking on it for a bit I'm actually less bothered by the result than I was initially.  

My biggest concern was that Texas getting left out would send a message to coaches/ADs NOT to schedule difficult OOC games but there are some offsets:

  • Miami would absolutely NOT be in without their H2H over Notre Dame.  
  • I honestly don't think Oklahoma would be in without their win over Michigan.  
  • There would be a strong case to exclude aTm if they didn't have that win over ND.  They somehow managed to only play one of the SECs ranked teams and they lost that game by two scores.  Without the ND win they would have ZERO wins over ranked teams just like Vanderbilt, Utah, you and I.  You know what Vanderbilt, Utah, you, and I have in common?  We aren't going to the playoffs.  
  • Ohio State would still be in without their win over Texas but they certainly wouldn't be #2 and they likely wouldn't be getting a first round bye.  

Texas is a difficult team to judge.  They have five games against ranked teams which is more than any of the other contenders and a LOT more than some of them.  They also have a bad loss to unranked Florida, they won a couple of very close games against bad teams, and they got beaten badly by UGA (it is fair to point out that the game was close heading into the fourth quarter).  

I'm going to vote that Texas should be in over Miami because, IMHO, Miami's overall resume simply isn't playoff worthy.  Personally, I wouldn't even have Miami over ND despite the H2H.  That game was a 3 point win by the home team which doesn't prove much and it was Miami's ONLY win over a ranked team.  That would be fine if they were 12-0 and it would probably be ok if they were 11-1 but they lost not one but two games to unranked teams.  Think of it this way:  The at-large teams have a grand combined total of three losses to unranked teams and two of them were by the Hurricanes.  

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Did the Committee get it right, if not, how so?
« Reply #1 on: December 09, 2025, 10:44:52 PM »
There is a vote for ND over Bama, really?  

I'd like to hear the justification for that because I don't see it.  

Notre Dame has a 10 point win over #16.  Alabama has a 16 point win over #14 AND a 3 point win over #3.  

Notre Dame has two close losses to ranked teams.  Alabama has one and a not-so-close loss (21) to the same #3 that they beat.  Notre Dame didn't lose that badly to anyone but they also didn't play anyone that good so I see that as a bit of a wash.  

Alabama's big weakness is their 14 point loss to nr FSU but they offset that with having an extra win over a ranked team.  In terms of overall resume I just don't see the case for ND and the precedent of punishing Bama for a relatively tough schedule and rewarding ND for a relatively easy schedule would be bad for the sport.  
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Did the Committee get it right, if not, how so?
« Reply #2 on: December 10, 2025, 12:49:08 AM »
Real quick, before I make my real point:  you can't just lump UR 8-4 Louisville with UR 4-8 Florida.  Those are not one and the same.

My main point is that a lot of this debate has to do with initial expectations vs early results. 
ND was preseason #5 and promptly lost their first 2 games.  Dismissed in people's minds.  Underachievers.  They're done.
Texas was preseason #1 and lost their only 2 games vs P4 teams, and famously fall out of the rankings.  Dismissed.  Underachievers.  They're done.

Alabama is preseason #8.  They go 10-2. That's about right.  Aligned with preseason expectations.  Looked great in the 2nd quarter of the season.  Fell off late.  

Miami is preseason #10.  They go 10-2.  That's about right.  Aligned with preseason expectations.  Both losses to good/not great UR teams.  Left out of their CCG by some kind of stupid tie-breaker.  CFP ranking should be 2nd behind H2H.  

If you take all this into consideration, while it maybe shouldn't matter...it obviously does matter.  
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847badgerfan

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Re: Did the Committee get it right, if not, how so?
« Reply #3 on: December 10, 2025, 07:02:47 AM »
JMU and Tulane should sit home and watch.
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MarqHusker

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Re: Did the Committee get it right, if not, how so?
« Reply #4 on: December 10, 2025, 07:32:25 AM »
The biggest error is the desire to push a ratings click bait grab of a weekly tv program, which is treated as testimony by the addict viewers.   Then you go and change the dope.   What do you expect?
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MaximumSam

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Re: Did the Committee get it right, if not, how so?
« Reply #5 on: December 10, 2025, 08:17:42 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 09, 2025, 10:44:52 PM
There is a vote for ND over Bama, really? 

I'd like to hear the justification for that because I don't see it. 

Notre Dame has a 10 point win over #16.  Alabama has a 16 point win over #14 AND a 3 point win over #3. 

Notre Dame has two close losses to ranked teams.  Alabama has one and a not-so-close loss (21) to the same #3 that they beat.  Notre Dame didn't lose that badly to anyone but they also didn't play anyone that good so I see that as a bit of a wash. 

Alabama's big weakness is their 14 point loss to nr FSU but they offset that with having an extra win over a ranked team.  In terms of overall resume I just don't see the case for ND and the precedent of punishing Bama for a relatively tough schedule and rewarding ND for a relatively easy schedule would be bad for the sport. 
ND
  • Has a better record
  • Would be favored on a neutral field
  • Hasn't been blown out
  • Didn't lose to team with a losing record
  • Had two coinflip games with playoff teams and dominated the rest of their schedule

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847badgerfan

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Re: Did the Committee get it right, if not, how so?
« Reply #6 on: December 10, 2025, 08:43:30 AM »
Message: Join a conference
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bayareabadger

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Re: Did the Committee get it right, if not, how so?
« Reply #7 on: December 10, 2025, 08:47:34 AM »
I think ND and Bama both are flawed enough, in different ways, that if either was left out, you’d have a hard time arguing they should be in. 

I think the baseline with Bama is a bit cleaner, but if ND was in and you made the pitch (played better, playing better, higher floor, etc), I wouldn’t be on the warpath. 

I think this does kind of show the current size it about optimum. Like, if the line is this Miami-Bama-ND trio, that seems good. (I’m not in love with Oklahoma, but respect the resume)
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MaximumSam

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Re: Did the Committee get it right, if not, how so?
« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2025, 09:05:06 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 10, 2025, 08:43:30 AM
Message: Join a conference
The only thing I hate about modern college football is the megaconferences. Pretty much just one program fighting that losing battle. 
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Did the Committee get it right, if not, how so?
« Reply #9 on: December 10, 2025, 09:09:11 AM »

I just hate how Bama gets to have one more loss than everyone else before they are removed from consideration. It's always been that way. 

They actually are what everyone thinks Notre Dame is. 
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utee94

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Re: Did the Committee get it right, if not, how so?
« Reply #10 on: December 10, 2025, 09:30:19 AM »
Notre Dame has historically enjoyed that advantage as well.  Let's not pretend that THIS year is not a huge exception.

Which is precisely why Notre Dame fans and administration are all hot and bothered.  They're not supposed to be treated this way by the lessers.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Did the Committee get it right, if not, how so?
« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2025, 09:45:40 AM »
?


  • 2012 had to go undefeated to make their lone appearance in a BCS NCG
  • 2018 had to go undefeated to make their first four team playoff.
  • 2020 made it to the playoffs with 1 loss, but also won the ACC CCG.
  • 2021 missed the four team playoff with only 1 loss
  • 2024 made 12 team playoff with only 1 loss
  • 2025 missed the 12 team playoff with 2 losses



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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Did the Committee get it right, if not, how so?
« Reply #12 on: December 10, 2025, 09:56:12 AM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on December 10, 2025, 08:17:42 AM
ND
  • Has a better record - Against a crap schedule.  
  • Would be favored on a neutral field - Yeah, and Ohio State was favored on a neutral field against Indiana.  
  • Hasn't been blown out - Hasn't played a team anywhere close to as good as the team that blew out Bama.  
  • Didn't lose to team with a losing record - Didn't beat many teams with winning records either on their crap schedule.  
  • Had two coinflip games with playoff teams and dominated the rest of their schedule - A schedule that you and 10 of your friends might go .500 against.  
FIFY.  
I just don't get the hate for Bama.  I get the Bama fatigue but the argument that we should put in a team that got a lot of wins against a crap schedule is problematic for the sport because it will simply encourage crap schedules.  Does anyone want that?  
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847badgerfan

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Re: Did the Committee get it right, if not, how so?
« Reply #13 on: December 10, 2025, 10:01:51 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 10, 2025, 09:56:12 AM
I just don't get the hate for Bama.  I get the Bama fatigue but the argument that we should put in a team that got a lot of wins against a crap schedule is problematic for the sport because it will simply encourage crap schedules.  Does anyone want that? 
Hell no, but that's what we're gonna get.

I doubt you'll ever see OSU/Texas again after next year.

It will be curious to see if OSU/Bama keep their H/H on the schedule.
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