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Topic: CRISPR and AI

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: CRISPR and AI
« Reply #42 on: January 29, 2025, 04:55:33 PM »
I find most humans are bad at this. But I definitely agree that more of them should spend time thinking about this once they get to the end. If the number "seems" wrong, it probably is.
It definitely helps.  Most people (myself included) need to occasionally remind ourselves to ask "does this seem plausible".  And you are 100% correct, if the number "seems" wrong, it almost always IS wrong.  Maybe it is not, but it is worth a double-check.  

Gigem

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Re: CRISPR and AI
« Reply #43 on: January 29, 2025, 04:57:30 PM »
That system used the 6510 as its CPU, which was a modification of the venerable 8-bit 6502 processor, used in the Apple, Apple II, and my own favorite for price/performance, the Atari400/800 computer systems.  It also appeared in the Atari 2600 gaming systems, Nintendo ES, and a bunch of other 8-bit platforms of the day.  I have a special place in my heart for that little CPU.
As do I.  6502 made the 80's.  

Cincydawg

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Re: CRISPR and AI
« Reply #44 on: January 29, 2025, 05:01:23 PM »
I suspect both of these will "change our lives" in a decade.

utee94

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Re: CRISPR and AI
« Reply #45 on: January 29, 2025, 05:09:09 PM »
There seems to be some debate on whether AGI as you've described it, would entail sentient self-awareness or not.  Technically, I suppose those are two different things, since after all, an algorithm that can do one thing could logically become capable of doing another thing without awareness, depending on how complex the algorithm becomes.  otoh, it seems once you become capable of being goal-directed, or self-directed, you might require sentience. 

What do you think?
Holy Cow I just had a 6-paragraph response to almost exactly this question, and for some reason my browser decided to back up, and I lost the whole thing.

I'm long-winded anyway, so it's probably a fortunate happenstance, for the sake of brevity.  In summary, my mind goes to two questions when contemplating this matter:

1) Is it ultimately possible for GAI to reach a point of sentience, of self-wareness, of independent thought?  It's as much a philosophical and spiritual question, as it is a scientific one.  Can an artificial system gain true sentience, and if such a thing as a soul does exist, is it possible for an artificial system to develop one?  And if not, is that potentially problematic?

2) From a practical standpoint, does it actually matter whether or not 1) above is possible?  If we can design or evolve an artificial system in hardware and software that is complex enough to emulate General AI, sentience, self-awareness, and to do it in perfect or extremely close imitation to the capability of an actual human, does it matter whether or not it's actually sentient? 

I think there are many questions about the possibility of 1) above, but I have very little doubt that we'll achieve 2) above, and at that point, I'm not sure there's any practical difference in the two, other than the implications about "playing God" and whatnot that are inextricably associated with the first.

Cincydawg

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Re: CRISPR and AI
« Reply #46 on: January 29, 2025, 05:14:09 PM »
"The Moon is a Harsh Mistress"...

Drew4UTk

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Re: CRISPR and AI
« Reply #47 on: January 29, 2025, 05:19:47 PM »
we're a long, long way from singularity.  

but what we call AI is pretty convincing unless you know what it's doing. 

this may seem political- so be it- but..... 

Contracts were let under the 1stTrump administration... how that happened is clever unto itself, but... briefly some groups were paid to build a capability using quantum computers, but the way the contract was worded- they sold the results of queries, not the device.  Apparently some close to Trump and Trump himself were big fans... I'll circle back to this in a second... 

meanwhile... 

i don't know the proper names or have forgotten them if ever i did, but the ability to create a database from a query happened... a rigid db complete with tables, columns, rows, and multiple queries interacting and collecting information- but created 'on the fly' using understanding of language sprinkled with key operative words... wham- just like that, a computer extracted your intent and made a database... then, it is pointed toward a pile of data- piles and piles of formless data- and then by arranging that data using key words, phrases, ect, it slams the data into a formation based on relations and in the context of the query the database was formed for/by... and instant information was available about what-the-hell-ever you wanted.... which is then leveraged to provide predictive analysis.  

the idea is you can ask this mechanism a question- using definitively defined operative words where needed (if you can't do that, you just ask it to build the query for you), and access through whatever data source(s) is simplified- and based on what it learns, it can predict what is most likely to happen... providing results like "there is a 97.2% chance ___ will be a result of this scenario and a 1.1% chance this, and a ...... "... and the friggin' thing works. 

and Trump loved it.  and he used it often.  what the machine couldn't 'predict' was unknown and unanticipated variables. 

now back to the company that created this thing (and still runs it)- they still sell the data to the gov't.  intelligence community loves it... limitations on who they can sell the info to expires at some point, and supposedly they've got advertising agencies lined up down the street and around the corner- who already own sophisticated software, but who recognize this gadget 'beats all they've ever seen' in it's capability to mine specific data and make predictive models as accurately as it does. 

this was some years ago.  i can only imagine how much more it's advanced in the last eight years.  .... in a nutshell, how that thing works is my common definition of AI.  it also begs the question 'who needs AI when you have the keys to that thing? let them eat cake"....

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: CRISPR and AI
« Reply #48 on: January 29, 2025, 05:25:02 PM »
I don't know if or when this could ever happen, because the realm of business is more treacherous, but we could potentially one day get better medical care while also paying less.

One area that I wonder about is liability? 

I think about this with autonomous driving. For autonomous driving to REALLY be here, it has to mean that the vehicle is capable of driving me and I have no legal liability for what it does. I.e. I can be passed out drunk in the front left seat of the car and if it mows down a row of nuns on their way to mass, it's the car manufacturer's problem, not mine. Which means that the autonomous system doesn't have to be merely "better than a human", but it has to be so much better than the human that the human is no longer needed.

I wonder what the risk of misdiagnosis is when it comes to things like AI-read medical imaging. Obviously if AI says "that's a tumor" it'll get referred to a human doctor because you're going to have to treat the tumor. But what if AI says "nope, there's no tumor there!" and then you die of cancer because it was, actually, a tumor. Can your family sue the medical group for malpractice because they farmed your diagnosis out to AI? Can they sue the AI medical company because their faulty algorithm didn't get your diagnosis right? 

These are some of those areas where I wonder how it's all going to be figured out. 

Cincydawg

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Re: CRISPR and AI
« Reply #49 on: January 29, 2025, 05:37:32 PM »
My past visit to the dentist had Xrays and the doc noted a spot under an incisor that he wanted noted for the future.  I'd guess any "AI" examination would have done the same. and a doc would be responsible to concluding yay or nay.  In my case, it's just a possible future worry, and it's a tooth.  

Is there a real situation where AI would be left "alone" to decide if it's a tumor or item of concern, or would it finally be a doctor's call?  I suspect the latter.

As for autonomous vehicles, well, yeah.  They can't just be better, not even 10x better, but nearly infinitely better.


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: CRISPR and AI
« Reply #50 on: January 29, 2025, 06:04:25 PM »
Is there a real situation where AI would be left "alone" to decide if it's a tumor or item of concern, or would it finally be a doctor's call?  I suspect the latter.
I think what @MikeDeTiger was suggesting about using it as triage is where the problem comes in.
 
  • A false positive is easy to correct, and not THAT big of a deal, because the patient will be referred to someone human for treatment. If it's not a tumor, it's not like AI will be immediately operating on you based on AI's diagnosis. At least... Not yet! (Obv the mental anguish of AI saying "you've got a tumor" and then finding out you don't would be hell... But it's better than having the tumor!)
  • A false negative is the problem. If AI says "oh you totes def don't have a tumor!" and nobody double-checks it, then you die because you actually had a tumor, that is where the bigger issue comes in. 

If they're using AI diagnosis as a triage due to workload issues, and there are false negatives that "slip through the cracks", then you might have lawyers salivating...

MrNubbz

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Re: CRISPR and AI
« Reply #51 on: January 29, 2025, 06:47:48 PM »
If AI doesn't allow beans in chili, it means we wound up in the Terminator/Matrix future, and not the optimistic Star Trek one. 
Hitting AI with a bean ball works also
"Let us endeavor so to live - that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: CRISPR and AI
« Reply #52 on: January 29, 2025, 07:59:09 PM »
but what we call AI is pretty convincing unless you know what it's doing.
Without going into the weeds of the rest of your post, I think it's important that you are highlighting something that is NOT "Generative AI", but on the opposite is "Predictive AI". Obviously some of the technologies are related, but it highlights that there's a giant aspect of predictive analysis that is completely separate from text/image/video generation. 

The big thread that combines machine learning, predictive AI, and generative AI is that we're dealing with data sets that are WAY too large and complex for humans to actually ingest and understand and analyze. 

Predictive AI is simple in theory. "Look at all the ways that events have transpired historically based on these giant amounts of data. Look at the current data. Predict the next events that are likely to occur based on the current data."

Like most things, everything is a lot more complex when you put it into practice. But predictive AI is a huge thing and a massive new market. 

Cincydawg

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Re: CRISPR and AI
« Reply #53 on: January 30, 2025, 07:37:05 AM »
I presume there are other things out there likely to change how we live in the next couple of decades, in the past we had the Internet as a major event (over time).  I dimly recall attending a presentation on what was called the World Wide Web, the presenters were very enthusiastic, I didn't quite see the point of it at that time.  Personal computers of course enabled that transition.  

I also recall showing up at the airport 5 minutes before my flight and zooming through "security" to the gate.  

GPS has changed travel a good bit for us I think.  I often wonder how I got around before that.  I can recall my first time flying a Cessna with my friend who had a portable GPS with him, it seemed like cheating it was so simple.  Navigation in a plane before that was interesting.


Drew4UTk

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Re: CRISPR and AI
« Reply #54 on: January 30, 2025, 09:20:29 AM »
...... GPS has changed travel a good bit for us I think.  I often wonder how I got around before that.  I can recall my first time flying a Cessna with my friend who had a portable GPS with him, it seemed like cheating it was so simple.  Navigation in a plane before that was interesting.
it's hard to imagine but it was over 20 years ago, now... a highly capable team with mature operators/technicians were entering Fallujah and started taking small arms fire, and then mortars... the CoC was in direct comms with them and had real time video feed from a high altitude drone, and all the way from As Sayliyah- which was was in Doha, Qatar...  I thought, at the time, it was incredible such a thing was possible.  The team finds cover and are trying to perform a inter-section/re-section, which is using your known position (after the intersection) and the position of a prominent terrain feature on the map(also known position) and shoot/collect an azimuth to the unknown position to determine it's position... it's usually reported in grid format- six digit, eight digit, etc...

they were taking a really long time to do this... the chief started barking at them to "hurry the eff up" and "cough up those digits" and so some fire support could be lobbed in there.  ... again, they lagged. 

finally, they reported "the batteries are dead and we don't have any extras that aren't dead too", which globally reduced that team from 'highly capable' to 'wtf' in everyone's mind simultaneously... the chief said "eff that tracker, break out a dang map, compass, and protractor!".... more lag... by this time some industrious technician in the CoC had already done his own map recon and pegged the target area... the Chief, not yet knowing that, sends "Well?!".... the response: "we don't have a protractor and nobody here knows how to do it, anyway".... 

it wasn't ten years prior to that i'm in a non-permissive environment myself, creeping around with five other dudes, and sending out SALUTE reports... we had a high tech star wars super gadget called a GPS... it was the size of a big city's phone book with a separate antenna, and had a small screen about the size of one found on a standard pager at the time that would give us our (its) location... when it worked... and when we had time to convert the data to usable format which took some math, effort, and time- which are things you don't want to trust your average Marine with... and while using the equally star-trek radio at the time, a PRC-128, getting barked at for 'not' using that GPS 'thing'... we had several maps, instead.... and several protractors... and everyone had a compass.   

nowadays?  those guys operate with a dang air tag.  well, basically.  all they have to do is look down to see where they are, and point to see where 'they' are.... until the batteries die. 

FearlessF

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Re: CRISPR and AI
« Reply #55 on: January 30, 2025, 09:31:38 AM »
beem me up, scotty
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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