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Topic: Conference Tiebreaker Rules 2024

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LittlePig

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Conference Tiebreaker Rules 2024
« on: August 22, 2024, 10:46:50 AM »
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/40944783/sec-reveals-tiebreaking-procedures-conference-title-game

Below is a summary of the SEC tiebreaker rules that will be used in 2024 to determine the top 2 teams that play in the CCG.

A. Head-to-head competition between the tied teams.

B. Record versus all common conference opponents among the tied teams.

C. Record against highest (best) placed common opponent in the conference standings and proceeding through the standings among the tied teams.

D. Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams.

E. Capped relative scoring margin versus all conference opponents among the tied teams. Formula will include a cap of 42 points scored on offense and 48 points allowed on defense.

F. Random draw of the tied teams.

LittlePig

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Re: Conference Tiebreaker Rules 2024
« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2024, 10:54:41 AM »
The one that jumps out to me is the SEC now has a new scoring margin tiebreaker rule.  I expect it will rarely be used because the tiebreaker above it is the winning percentage of all your conference opponents. But coaches may use it as an excuse to run up the score even more.

Also the cap on scoring margin seems strange to me.  Why have a diiferrent cap for offensive scoring and defensive scoring?
« Last Edit: August 22, 2024, 11:31:02 AM by LittlePig »

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Conference Tiebreaker Rules 2024
« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2024, 11:05:54 AM »
First, thank you for posting this.  I haven't looked into it yet but I think the tiebreakers will be EXTREMELY important this year because with bigger leagues and no divisions there are going to be a LOT more ties and the tied teams frequently will not have played each other.  

Second, I agree, that it seems goofy to have different caps.  If I were writing a tiebreaker and the people in charge told me they wanted a cap I wouldn't put ANYTHING about offense/defense, I'd just make it a cap on the total scoring margin.  

Third, I've long advocated for using scoring margin AMONG THE TIED TEAMS as a tiebreaker but I strongly oppose using scoring margin against OTHER teams because:
But coaches may use it as an excuse to run up the score even more.

IMHO, the ability to beat the living daylights out of the bottom-feeders is only marginally related to the ability to win games against equals.  

LittlePig

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Re: Conference Tiebreaker Rules 2024
« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2024, 11:15:54 AM »
Yes   I am looking forward to the Big Ten tiebreaker rules when they come out. 

I personally don't like scoring margin tiebreakers because they seem to favor teams with good offenses over teams with good defenses.  But I guess if you like offense,  it's a good way to encourage more scoring.   I guess I have to admit I myself prefer higher scoring 35-17 games over boring (in my opinion) 10-7 games. 

LittlePig

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Re: Conference Tiebreaker Rules 2024
« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2024, 03:32:49 PM »
The Big Ten released their own Tiebreaker rules today

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-ten-football-tiebreakers-how-conference-will-decide-championship-game-matchup-with-divisions-gone-away/amp/

  • Head-to-head results during the regular season
  • Record against all common conference opponents
  • Record against mutual conference opponents with best record
  • Best Big Ten winning percentage of conference opponents
  • Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics after the regular season
  • Random draw of tied teams

The first four tiebreakers are consistent with those released by the SEC.  However, the SEC opted to move towards a point-differential tiebreaker at No. 5.

The Big Ten followed the Big 12 in leaning on an analytics system to decide tiebreakers.  This of course leads to the next question.  How do the Sports source analytics rankings work?

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Conference Tiebreaker Rules 2024
« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2024, 12:33:53 PM »
The Big Ten released their own Tiebreaker rules today

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-ten-football-tiebreakers-how-conference-will-decide-championship-game-matchup-with-divisions-gone-away/amp/

  • Head-to-head results during the regular season
  • Record against all common conference opponents
  • Record against mutual conference opponents with best record
  • Best Big Ten winning percentage of conference opponents
  • Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics after the regular season
  • Random draw of tied teams

The first four tiebreakers are consistent with those released by the SEC.  However, the SEC opted to move towards a point-differential tiebreaker at No. 5.

The Big Ten followed the Big 12 in leaning on an analytics system to decide tiebreakers.  This of course leads to the next question.  How do the Sports source analytics rankings work?
We discussed this briefly in another thread but there is some minutiae that I want to tackle here:  

This is hyper-technical and probably boring to most people but it will suddenly matter a LOT if it ends up being an issue which it probably will in our new enormous league.  

The first tiebreaker is H2H but they don't bother to say whether the number of games matters.  I find this to be a glaring oversight and the conference should know better.  For multi-team ties, the #1 BB tiebreaker is:
"1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular-season.
a. When comparing records against the tied teams, the team with the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).
b. After the top team among the tied teams is determined, the second team is ranked by its record among the original tied teams, not the head-to-head record vs. the remaining team(s)."

I guess we should assume that the same rules apply in FB as BB but why didn't they clarify?  

The second tiebreaker looks pretty clear.  

They made the same mistake with the third tiebreaker.  Once again, the BB tiebreakers  clarify:
"2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team's record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
b. When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0)."

I would guess that nearly all ties that get to step-4 will be broken by step-4 but if not . . .

WTF is "SportSource Analytics"?  Why not use  CFP ranking?  

LittlePig

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Re: Conference Tiebreaker Rules 2024
« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2024, 02:06:46 PM »
I saw in another thread that if the Big Ten was always divisionless and used these tiebreakers then Michigan and Ohio St would have played each other in the CCG in 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2023.

But that assumes everybody would have played the same schedules that they did in reality.   I would have guessed in a 14-team divisionless Big Ten team,  everybody would have had at least 3 permanent rivals and played everybody else at least 50% of the time.  So I have hunch PSU might have snuck into the CCG a couple years when they did not have to play Michigan. 

 

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