Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

That's what I tried to point out about Indiana's 2020 record. They not only had a very high turnover rate and a very positive turnover margin, but those numbers were uncharacteristic of Indiana in the Tom Allen era.

And those turnovers really DID affect their 2020 W-L record. Their talent level didn't really predict going 6-1 in the B1G, after all.

I get that some defensive schemes can create more turnovers, but there was no evidence that this was scheme-based for the Hoosiers.

Therefore I suggested that their turnovers were likely to regress to the mean, and that their W-L would as well.

I think there are two things at play. On the one hand, turnovers did play a big role in inflating the record of the 2020 Hoosiers. 

That said, one somewhat reliable advanced stat that puts considerably less weight on turnovers had IU as the No. 26 team in terms of play quality last year. It's at 76 this year. 

So the team is playing notably worse AND had the turnover luck flip. 

I think there are two things at play. On the one hand, turnovers did play a big role in inflating the record of the 2020 Hoosiers.

That said, one somewhat reliable advanced stat that puts considerably less weight on turnovers had IU as the No. 26 team in terms of play quality last year. It's at 76 this year.

So the team is playing notably worse AND had the turnover luck flip.

the QB play is much worse than last year
probably the difference from #26 to #76

The mean is always (nearly) the more likely.

Programs like IU tend to only peak for a single season.  They lack the talent and depth to maintain it for any amount of time. 

Penix returned, but everyone didn't.  UNC was a similar case this year, too.  Preseason top 15 because the sexy returning QB, but all his toys left.  

Programs like IU tend to only peak for a single season.  They lack the talent and depth to maintain it for any amount of time. 

Yup.

Particularly when your generational QB talent tries to return from his second season ending injury...only to apparently suffer a third, without ever being 100%

And Yup.

Programs like IU tend to only peak for a single season.  They lack the talent and depth to maintain it for any amount of time.

Penix returned, but everyone didn't.  UNC was a similar case this year, too.  Preseason top 15 because the sexy returning QB, but all his toys left. 

They won 8 the year before, were one big blown lead from 9. Maybe IU returns to the doldrums. Maybe Allen returns it. Teams like IU, even when they have a solid floor, also tend to have things go super wrong in bursts.

As for the toys leaving, they returned three of the top four pass target. Did lose the only back they used. Interestingly only lost two of the top-five linemen, and the two new starters averaged at least 36 snaps a game last year. So the "everyone didn't return" theory doesn't hole much water. They lost a nice slot and a fun tailback who averaged 3.6 YPC. 

might be a sign they are going all in on Cristobal.

That would be interesting,does anyone want to see the Canes rise from the ashes?