header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6   Go Down
Author

Topic: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021

 (Read 7114 times)

Brutus Buckeye

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12097
  • Liked:
Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #42 on: June 23, 2021, 01:17:28 PM »
Minnesota Football: Gophers vs. Indiana Preview - This Game. How Does It  Work? - The Daily Gopher
Logged

CatsbyAZ

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3191
  • Liked:
Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #43 on: June 23, 2021, 01:30:32 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 09:55:39 AM
Aside from your rival (and EMU), who do you hate today?


Before I chilled out when it came to sports  sometime in my mid-twenties (no more days of mourning after especially bitter losses), being a fan was just as much about who you hated as it was who you cheered for. Growing up a Gators fan, starting in Lee County FL as a youngster, I proudly hated on the Seminoles more than any team I've disliked, and boy was that easy given how good FSU was. Something like 15 years of Top 4 finishes. As a Gators fan there was nothing more disheartening than to blow through the SEC only to lose to FSU at season's end. As FSU started waning around the mid-2000s, it become less of a rush to root against them. And I haven't as actively rooted against the Seminoles since, even through their very good Jameis years. To pinpoint an exact game when the downswing became clear enough, I remember what would be a bad NC State team dropping FSU to 3-2 in 2006, which was an unheard of start to their season:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piWrjxy-kBM
Logged

medinabuckeye1

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 10655
  • Liked:
Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #44 on: June 23, 2021, 04:54:51 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on June 23, 2021, 01:14:46 PM
does a 12-team playoff give them a better chance?
IMHO, no.  

Expanding the playoff oddly makes it less rather than more likely that a non-elite team will win it.  Pre-BCS it was possible for a team to play zero quality opponents, go undefeated, and get lucky with all the big boys losing to each other (See BYU NC).  Alternatively, it was also possible for a non-elite team from a big conference to get lucky and miss the elite teams in their conference or maybe catch one on a bad day then get a not-great bowl opponent and sneak into an NC.  Even in the BCS era these types of teams still might have been able to sneak past with just one win over a quality team.  

With the four-team playoff the winner has to win back-to-back games against high-end opponents.  Has that spread the NC's around?  Not at all.  Going to 12, IMHO will exacerbate that situation.  A non-elite team might catch Bama or Clemson or tOSU or LSU19 or whoever on a bad day and beat them but that doesn't mean that they have any realistic chance of beating Bama, Clemson, and tOSU back-to-back-to-back.  
Logged

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 83042
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #45 on: June 23, 2021, 05:31:21 PM »
1980 UGA is an example of a lucky NC team that wasn't that great.  They snuck by several opponents and caught ND on a bad day in the S Bowl.  They did have a good defense and a decent running back.  That team would not survive another credible opponent IMHO.

Another question is how often the "best team" wins the playoff, presume you know the actual best team.  Every team has a bad day, fluke fumbles, tipped INTs, etc.
Logged

medinabuckeye1

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 10655
  • Liked:
Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #46 on: June 23, 2021, 05:52:35 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 05:31:21 PM
Another question is how often the "best team" wins the playoff, presume you know the actual best team.  Every team has a bad day, fluke fumbles, tipped INTs, etc.
Best, of course, is extremely difficult to discern especially once we accept that the best team doesn't always win.  That said, one of the best teams is pretty much always going to win a four, six, eight, 12, or 16 team playoff.  

As I said:
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on June 23, 2021, 04:54:51 PM
A non-elite team might catch Bama or Clemson or tOSU or LSU19 or whoever on a bad day and beat them but that doesn't mean that they have any realistic chance of beating Bama, Clemson, and tOSU back-to-back-to-back. 
Logged

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 83042
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #47 on: June 23, 2021, 06:07:21 PM »
One of the best teams will usually win, but if you are omniscient, you can know which is the best, and how often they win is probably less than half.
Logged

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 45619
  • Liked:
Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #48 on: June 23, 2021, 06:19:08 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on June 23, 2021, 04:54:51 PM
IMHO, no. 

With the four-team playoff the winner has to win back-to-back games against high-end opponents.  Has that spread the NC's around?  Not at all.  Going to 12, IMHO will exacerbate that situation.  A non-elite team might catch Bama or Clemson or tOSU or LSU19 or whoever on a bad day and beat them but that doesn't mean that they have any realistic chance of beating Bama, Clemson, and tOSU back-to-back-to-back. 
yup, I was referring to now to 12-team.

Seems to make it much less likely to me
Logged
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 22875
  • Liked:
Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #49 on: June 23, 2021, 06:21:30 PM »
UM has kind of hit the sweet spot.  They were almost too bad for a little while.  Now they aren't good enough to win anything of meaning, but still good enough that I enjoy beating them.
Logged

Mdot21

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 16791
  • Liked:
Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #50 on: June 23, 2021, 11:01:15 PM »
cute thread lol. let's cut the shit. unless your name is Alabama, Clemson, or Ohio State- your chance of winning the NC in 2021 is slim and none.
Logged

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 83042
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #51 on: June 24, 2021, 07:56:53 AM »
I think Oklahoma and UGA have reasonable chances on winning the NC this year.

Logged

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 45619
  • Liked:
Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #52 on: June 24, 2021, 09:41:22 AM »
OU or Iowa State

and the top team from the PAC

tough for the Horns with new coach and new QB, do the Okie St cowpokes bring a bunch back?


May be an image of text that says 'BIG 12 PROJECTED WIN TOTALS WI OKLAHOMA SOONERS 11 2 STATE IOWA STATE CYCLONES 3 TEXAS LONGHORNS 9.5 8 OSu OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS 7.5 5 TCU TCU HORNED FROGS 6 7 7.5 WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS 6.5 8 早T BAYLOR BEARS KANSAS STATE WILDCATS 5.5 OMA 5.5 TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS 10 4.5 KANSAS JAYHAWKS William HILL 1.5 247SPRT'
« Last Edit: June 24, 2021, 08:46:15 PM by FearlessF »
Logged
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Mdot21

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 16791
  • Liked:
Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #53 on: June 24, 2021, 10:07:13 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 24, 2021, 07:56:53 AM
I think Oklahoma and UGA have reasonable chances on winning the NC this year.
Oklahoma doesn't play defense and Kirby is basically Mark Richt. Oh and he's Saban's little bitch. 

Alabama, Clemson, or Ohio State will be the MNC winner in 2021. It's like 99.9% given.
Logged

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 83042
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #54 on: June 24, 2021, 10:11:12 AM »
I think OU and UGA have more of a chance than 0.1%, just my opinion.

So do the odds makers.

College Football Odds 2021: Who Are The Early Favorites? (thelines.com)

And yes, I know the odds shift according to betting velocities.  The odds drop hard after 5.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2021, 10:16:13 AM by Cincydawg »
Logged

CatsbyAZ

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3191
  • Liked:
Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #55 on: June 24, 2021, 10:54:42 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on June 22, 2021, 07:58:03 PM
Sarkisian wasn't the choice of any of the boosters.


So where was the REVOLT? The threats for a Knoxvillian organized overthrow of the athletic department? I would've kept Tom Herman because, after losing Sam Ehlinger and a good chunk of the Longhorns front, and facing a more top heavier Big 12, this was likely going to be a down season anyway. Covid allowed UT to keep Herman anyway and fire him after the expected down year while taking their time needed to set themselves up with a more dependable hire. Instead, Herman is rushed out the door. Sark is rushed in...on what deserved grounds?!?!? Sark is a known, style over substance quantity at this point, underwhelming given the talent advantages he recruited into Washington and USC. Player development under Sark is null. Drank himself out of LA. And why why why (!) is it a SIX year deal!?!? UT had all the leverage to lowball Sark and still land him! Forget beating OU, TCU is a tough enough hill to climb.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6   Go Up
« previous next »
 
Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.
Shadow Box Plaque

Dock Signs-WeatherPROOF