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Topic: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021

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Cincydawg

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #28 on: June 23, 2021, 09:26:43 AM »
I had to think a minute who the buffalos are, they have that bison cow, right?  named for a TV character?

FearlessF

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #29 on: June 23, 2021, 09:38:32 AM »
you're thinking of the Cow named Ralphie
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Cincydawg

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #30 on: June 23, 2021, 09:55:39 AM »
I think Miami was the "most hated team" in the last say 25 years.  Is ND hated?  Some, but they aren't good enough (in my view).  Which other programs is really hated (aside from EMU)?  Alabama?  Yes, some no doubt, but it's I think a different kind of hatred, tinged with some respect.

Aside from your rival (and EMU), who do you hate today?

FearlessF

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #31 on: June 23, 2021, 10:03:21 AM »
long before the Canes became the lawless CoCanes, Notre Dame was hated mostly for their winning and arrogance 

that's what usually qualifies a team to be strongly disliked, winning and arrogance go hand in hand

the other thing is simply cheating

I fondly remember the mid-90s when the Huskers were possibly the most "hated" team
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FearlessF

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #32 on: June 23, 2021, 10:05:19 AM »
I don't really hate any programs today, but the Hawkeyes are getting on my bad side and Wolverines have the past history back in my youth when I rooted for the Buckeyes and Woody
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utee94

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #33 on: June 23, 2021, 12:34:38 PM »
I have a healthy sports-rivalry hatred for OU, Texas A&M, and Arkansas, even still.

Among non-rivals, I still hate Miami with the white-hot intensity of a thousand burning suns.

And I sorta hate ND but not as much as I used to.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #34 on: June 23, 2021, 12:43:41 PM »
I still hate ND.

And frankly, it's not even ND that I hate. 


  • It's the fact that sycophantic fans and media slobber all over them like they're the best thing in the world. 
  • It's growing up in Chicago where half the people that would academically have trouble with community college were ND fans if they were either Catholic or Irish. 'course, none of the Catholics happened to be BC fans--it's just ND. 
  • It's going to school in the state of Indiana where people who attended neither school grew up to be ND football / IU basketball reversible jacket fans. 
  • It's living in California and seeing plenty of ND stickers on the backs of cars--how many of those people could find South Bend on a map?
  • It's the fact that ND remaining independent means that whatever damn playoff system we end up with will have to have special rules and advantages to allow them a seat at the table because they refuse to join a conference--despite them getting consistently trounced every time they've sat at said table. I guarantee if they joined the ACC you wouldn't see the rules adjusted to benefit BYU. 


ND is a fine academic institution and I don't begrudge any of those who came upon their fandom honestly (attended the school or a close family member / parent attended the school). It's everyone else. Bunch of front-running turds who think that ND is "special" and should get special treatment when they haven't won an MNC in over 30 years. 

ELA

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #35 on: June 23, 2021, 12:44:34 PM »
  • It's going to school in the state of Indiana where people who attended neither school grew up to be ND football / IU basketball reversible jacket fans.
I can one up you.

I have a co-worker whose husband went to Purdue...and is an ND football/IU basketball fan

Cincydawg

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #36 on: June 23, 2021, 12:45:26 PM »
Does any team outside the preseason top 25 have any chance to win the NC?  By "any", I mean something higher than 0.001%.

Probably only the top 12 or so have some realistic chance, maybe the next 13 have a chance of something like once in 20 years?  Would be interesting to calculated based on experience, but we won't have that.  Just making the top four would be possible, I think.


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #37 on: June 23, 2021, 12:56:41 PM »
I can one up you.

I have a co-worker whose husband went to Purdue...and is an ND football/IU basketball fan
:41:

I actually knew a girl at Purdue who was an ND football fan, but didn't really get into basketball at all. She grew up in Indianapolis and her dad was a big ND football fan (but didn't attend ND). 

I don't know why she came to Purdue. She was an elementary education major. Seemed like IU would have been the perfect school for that, instead of hanging out with us nerds.

Does any team outside the preseason top 25 have any chance to win the NC?  By "any", I mean something higher than 0.001%.

Probably only the top 12 or so have some realistic chance, maybe the next 13 have a chance of something like once in 20 years?  Would be interesting to calculated based on experience, but we won't have that.  Just making the top four would be possible, I think.
I think you'd have to find a team that was just outside the top 25 and had a bad previous year but still had a lot of talent on the roster. Probably in a weak conference / weak division, with a cakewalk to their CCG. Even then, they'd have to be 13-0 to have a chance which would probably take some lucky breaks, just to get to the CFP.

From there, you just have to hope that they have enough talent to compete and things fall their way. Beating two top teams isn't impossible, but it would be REALLY hard. 

I'd call it greater than 0.001%, but not by much. 

This would be one of those good times to look at the 20,000 simulated season type predictions and see how often it occurs. 

utee94

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #38 on: June 23, 2021, 12:59:59 PM »
I have a friend who's an Irish-Catholic from Houston, who went to UT and in all ways acted as a UT fan would, but when Texas played Notre Dame in 1995 and we had a watch party at my house, he wore "neutral colors" and claimed he was divided.

I never invited that MFer to my house again.

No, not really.  But everyone at the party gave him relentless shite from that day forward.


medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #39 on: June 23, 2021, 01:11:05 PM »
Does any team outside the preseason top 25 have any chance to win the NC?  By "any", I mean something higher than 0.001%.

Probably only the top 12 or so have some realistic chance, maybe the next 13 have a chance of something like once in 20 years?  Would be interesting to calculated based on experience, but we won't have that.  Just making the top four would be possible, I think.
Probably not.  Here are past AP champions and their preseason AP rankings:
  • 2020, #3 Bama
  • 2019, #6 LSU
  • 2018, #2 Clemson
  • 2017, #1 Bama
  • 2016, #2 Clemson
  • 2015, #3 Bama
  • 2014, #5 tOSU
  • 2013, #11 FSU:  NOTE, 2013 and prior is pre-CFP, the BCS era
  • 2012, #2 Bama
  • 2011, #2 Bama
  • 2010, #22 Auburn
  • 2009, #5 Bama
  • 2008, #5 Florida
  • 2007, #2 LSU
  • 2006, #7 Florida
  • 2005, #2 Texas
  • 2004, #1 USC
  • 2003, #8 USC
  • 2002, #13 tOSU
  • 2001, #2 Miami
So in the last 20 years I have:
  • 2 preseason #1's
  • 7 preseason #2's, cumulative 9 or 45%
  • 2 preseason #3's, cumulative 11 or 55%
  • 0 preseason #4's
  • 3 preseason #5's, cumulative 14 or 70%
  • 1 preseason #6, cumulative 15 or 75%
  • 1 preseason #7, cumulative 16 or 80%
  • 1 preseason #8, cumulative 17 or 85%
  • 0
  • o
  • 1 preseason #11, cumulative 18 or 90%
  • 1 preseason #13, cumulative 19 or 95%
  • 0
  • 0
  • 0
  • 0
  • 0
  • 0
  • 0
  • 1 preseason #22, cumulative 20 or 100%

Almost three-quarters were preseason top-5 and your guess that "maybe the next 13 have a chance of something like once in 20 years?" is nearly dead on.  The preseason top-13 won 19 of the last 20 NC's with the next 12 winning once in 20 years (#22 Auburn in 2010).  


FearlessF

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #40 on: June 23, 2021, 01:13:21 PM »
he had it coming, sounds like a pot stirrin SOB
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FearlessF

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #41 on: June 23, 2021, 01:14:46 PM »
Does any team outside the preseason top 25 have any chance to win the NC?  By "any", I mean something higher than 0.001%.

Probably only the top 12 or so have some realistic chance, maybe the next 13 have a chance of something like once in 20 years?  Would be interesting to calculated based on experience, but we won't have that.  Just making the top four would be possible, I think.


does a 12-team playoff give them a better chance?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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