CFP Thread

[OrangeAfroMan]

Same for me with the Fiesta Bowl after the 2006 season.  I remember the opening kickoff but nothing after that. 

That's still one of the craziest games of all time.  Not just a big upset, but for OSU to run back the opening kickoff, only to then have 82 total yards.  Unreal.  
I was waiting for OSU to start running the ball and get back into it, but it never happened.  Until Florida went up 34-14, I was freaking out, like the 1980 US hockey team with the lead with way too much time left.

[MikeDeTiger]

Coulda been worse.

That opening kickoff return should've been nullified because of a blatant hold on Reggie Nelson that didn't get called.  

[ManHawk]

Big Ten has made a new proposal for the CFP format in future years.

24-team CFP
1 automatic bid to the highest ranked G6 school
23 at large bids
No CCG's
8 game first round played on college campus in 2nd week of Dec
Not clear on 2nd round.  Guessing another 8 games on campus in 3rd week of Dec
Committe to make a reasonable effort to have no rematches in first or 2nd round if possible.
Quarterfinals in bowls around NYD
Semifinals in bowls in early or mid Jan
NCG in mid or late Jan

I guess this would mean a conference championship would be considered almost meaningless in the CFP seeding process.

Without the CCG,  Ohio St probably would have been the #1 seed in the CFP if this format would have been in place in 2025.

[ManHawk]

Big Ten has made a new proposal for the CFP format in future years.

24-team CFP
1 automatic bid to the highest ranked G6 school
23 at large bids
No CCG's
8 game first round played on college campus in 2nd week of Dec
Not clear on 2nd round.  Guessing another 8 games on campus in 3rd week of Dec
Committe to make a reasonable effort to have no rematches in first or 2nd round if possible.
Quarterfinals in bowls around NYD
Semifinals in bowls in early or mid Jan
NCG in mid or late Jan

I guess this would mean a conference championship would be considered almost meaningless in the CFP seeding process.

Without the CCG,  Ohio St probably would have been the #1 seed in the CFP if this format would have been in place in 2025.

If this format would have been in place in 2025;

First round / second round
23 Iowa @ 10 ND / 8 OK
22 GT @ 11 BYU / 7  Tex A&M
21 Hou @ 12 Miami /  6 Ole Miss
24 UNT @ 9 Bama / 5 Oregon
20 Tulane @ 13 Texas / 4 TT
19 Mich @ 15 Utah / 3 Georgia
18 Ariz @ 14 Vandy / 2 Indiana
17 VA @ 16 USC / 1 Ohio St

# Teams by conference
SEC - 7
Big Ten - 6
Big 12 - 5
ACC - 3
G6/American - 2
Indy (ND) - 1

[Brutus Buckeye]

Half the SEC? 

They haven't made a NCG since NIL kicked in. 

[Cincydawg]

I've thought for a long time that these notions of clear SEC superiority were unfounded Internet tripe.  I think in some years past it was probably slightly true, these days it's probably slightly untrue.  Outside the B1G these days there is a pretty clear dropoff.  But in some years past the other conferences have looked pretty strong, to me, top to bottom, just winning an NC doesn't mean your conference overall is great.

The SEC has been through some "helmet rotation" with programs like Florida, LSU, and Tennessee being down, and Ole Miss and Vandy being up (of late), and they don't have the same helmet as the others.  I suspect if Florida and LSU replaced Vandy and OM, perceptions might be different for some.

[MikeDeTiger]

They haven't made a NCG since NIL kicked in.

I want to say NIL began in 2022, in which case UGA was a national champion that year.  

I think we got Jayden Daniels from ASU in part because of NIL.  Also, there was a pair of freshman OTs that year who, if I recall their stories correctly, had pretty good NIL deals for their entire collegiate career.  I could be wrong, fact-checking is warranted.  

[ManHawk]

I've thought for a long time that these notions of clear SEC superiority were unfounded Internet tripe.  I think in some years past it was probably slightly true, these days it's probably slightly untrue.  Outside the B1G these days there is a pretty clear dropoff.  But in some years past the other conferences have looked pretty strong, to me, top to bottom, just winning an NC doesn't mean your conference overall is great.

The SEC has been through some "helmet rotation" with programs like Florida, LSU, and Tennessee being down, and Ole Miss and Vandy being up (of late), and they don't have the same helmet as the others.  I suspect if Florida and LSU replaced Vandy and OM, perceptions might be different for some.

I think last decade the SEC was thought to be superior to other P5 conferences for the same reason the Big Ten East was considered superior to the Big Ten West.  Because the champion always came from them (SEC,  Big Ten East) and they had the number #1 overall program (Bama, Ohio St)

But the funny thing is, if you compared overall cross division records,  the Big Ten East and West were actually pretty close in most, but not all, years.  The reason is Mich, Mich St,  Penn St all had some down years  so it was rare when they were all good.  Only Ohio St was consistently good.

[FearlessF]

I think the SEC had a strong case for the best conference for a while, before NIL

my question......... is it because of NIL or just a bit of a down cycle for the SEC and a good run by the Big Ten?

time will tell

[MikeDeTiger]

Maybe a bit of all the above?  

As for NIL, the correlation shouldn't be ignored.  Though I'd think if it were only that, then Texas would be a pack leader.  I haven't looked at NIL expenditures, but I'd guess that the B1G schools don't have more $ than the Longhorns to throw at NIL.  Maybe not less, either, but not more.  To be sure, Texas hasn't been bad.  Probably need a longer trend line to evaluate it all.  But if NIL is the driving factor, I'd expect Texas to get an NC sometime soon.  

[utee94]

Maybe a bit of all the above? 

As for NIL, the correlation shouldn't be ignored.  Though I'd think if it were only that, then Texas would be a pack leader.  I haven't looked at NIL expenditures, but I'd guess that the B1G schools don't have more $ than the Longhorns to throw at NIL.  Maybe not less, either, but not more.  To be sure, Texas hasn't been bad.  Probably need a longer trend line to evaluate it all.  But if NIL is the driving factor, I'd expect Texas to get an NC sometime soon. 

Well you gotta have the right coach, too.  Currently, Texas has a coach that's mostly incapable of beating elite teams.  To date his only win against an elite final-4 type team was @Alabama in 2023.  And that was a great win, for sure.  But aside from that he's 0-5 against teams that made the final 4 of the playoffs in those years. 

Like you said, Texas hasn't been "bad."  But Texas also hasn't been NC-winning-level good, either.  And I'm not confident the Horns ever will be with the current coaching staff.

[Cincydawg]

I think often the eventual MNC team might not be the "best team", but they will be close to it.  They usually need a couple of "lucky" breaks, like Indiana at Penn State.

I do think Indiana probably was the best team this past season, but they might still only win the playoff 40% of the time.

[FearlessF]

I think the Hoosiers definitely have the best coach - overall

[Cincydawg]

His record is pretty amazing.