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Topic: CFP National Championship game: #1 LSU (14-0) vs #3 Clemson (14-0)
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CWSooner · « **Reply #56 on:** January 01, 2020, 02:24:53 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 31, 2019, 11:16:31 AM

In some ways it is worse with Clemson/Oklahoma than it is with Bama because we all know that the SEC is a powerful league. When Bama wins it, that is an accomplishment worth noting. This year's ACC was horrible and now that OU has dropped to 0-4 in CFP games I think there are going to be questions about the value of winning the B12 going forward.

Note, I'm not trying to pick a fight with @utee94 or @CWSooner or any other B12 fans here. I'm just saying that it IS a potential issue. It was for the B1G after MSU's blowout loss to Bama in 2015. Recent conference history/performance matters whether we like it or not. For the B1G:

In 2014 tOSU won the NC. Then in 2015 MSU won the B1G at 12-1 with a bad loss to a Nebraska team that finished 6-6. Part of the reason that the Nebraska loss did NOT keep MSU out of the CFP was that they had defeated last year's NC and won the conference that the previous NC came from.

Then in 2016 tOSU got in at 11-1 and without a Championship based partially on the perception of tOSU based on winning the CFP in 2014 and winning the Fiesta Bowl in 2015. Ohio State was seen as a legit contender for the NC even without a P5 Championship based partially on perception based on prior years.

Then in 2017 tOSU was left out at 11-2 with a P5 Championship and one of the losses being to a fellow P5 Champion based partially on the fact that tOSU had gotten blown out in the CFP the previous year. 11-1 non-Champion Bama was seen as a more legitimate NC contender based on both teams' past results.

Then in 2018 tOSU was left out and even held behind an 11-2 non-champion from the SEC despite being a 12-1 P5 Champion. By that time the B1G had gone three years without being competitive in the CFP (MSU in 2015 and tOSU in 2016 were blown out) so the SEC runner-up was seen as a more legit NC challenger than the 12-1 B1G Champion.

This year tOSU eliminated all doubt by going 13-0 and their CFP performance did not make them look unworthy of the CFP slot. They clearly stood toe-to-toe with Clemson even though they lost. Next year's B1G Champion will benefit from that even if it isn't tOSU.

This will be a problem for next year's B12 Champion because they have had four CFP chances and only been close one time. If next year's B1G and B12 Champions are close and in contention for the fourth spot I strongly believe that it will go to the B1G Champion based on that history.

I think you are correct, Medina.
I also think that a conference's overall bowl history plays a secondary role, which is why I even rooted for Texas to beat Utah. And why I will hold my nose and root for Baylor to beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.

EDIT: I see that you addressed my additional point in a later post than the one I quoted.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #57 on:** January 01, 2020, 07:20:52 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 31, 2019, 11:16:31 AM

In some ways it is worse with Clemson/Oklahoma than it is with Bama because we all know that the SEC is a powerful league. When Bama wins it, that is an accomplishment worth noting. This year's ACC was horrible and now that OU has dropped to 0-4 in CFP games I think there are going to be questions about the value of winning the B12 going forward.

Note, I'm not trying to pick a fight with @utee94 or @CWSooner or any other B12 fans here. I'm just saying that it IS a potential issue. It was for the B1G after MSU's blowout loss to Bama in 2015. Recent conference history/performance matters whether we like it or not. For the B1G:

In 2014 tOSU won the NC. Then in 2015 MSU won the B1G at 12-1 with a bad loss to a Nebraska team that finished 6-6. Part of the reason that the Nebraska loss did NOT keep MSU out of the CFP was that they had defeated last year's NC and won the conference that the previous NC came from.

Then in 2016 tOSU got in at 11-1 and without a Championship based partially on the perception of tOSU based on winning the CFP in 2014 and winning the Fiesta Bowl in 2015. Ohio State was seen as a legit contender for the NC even without a P5 Championship based partially on perception based on prior years.

Then in 2017 tOSU was left out at 11-2 with a P5 Championship and one of the losses being to a fellow P5 Champion based partially on the fact that tOSU had gotten blown out in the CFP the previous year. 11-1 non-Champion Bama was seen as a more legitimate NC contender based on both teams' past results.

Then in 2018 tOSU was left out and even held behind an 11-2 non-champion from the SEC despite being a 12-1 P5 Champion. By that time the B1G had gone three years without being competitive in the CFP (MSU in 2015 and tOSU in 2016 were blown out) so the SEC runner-up was seen as a more legit NC challenger than the 12-1 B1G Champion.

This year tOSU eliminated all doubt by going 13-0 and their CFP performance did not make them look unworthy of the CFP slot. They clearly stood toe-to-toe with Clemson even though they lost. Next year's B1G Champion will benefit from that even if it isn't tOSU.

This will be a problem for next year's B12 Champion because they have had four CFP chances and only been close one time. If next year's B1G and B12 Champions are close and in contention for the fourth spot I strongly believe that it will go to the B1G Champion based on that history.

Medina, I think you are a very wise poster, but I must disagree on the fundamental premise here.

I think you’re over crediting the history and the latticework of it all, and not putting enough on each season. A writer I liked pointed out, record is the top reason a team gets to the playoff. Looking back, we’ll start with 2015, the first year with a playoff hangover:

2015: MSU got in because it was a 1-loss P5 champ. OSU did not because there were four such champs for four spots.

2016: OSU got in because there were four 1 or zero loss teams in P5 and the best G5 lacked even that level’s helmetness. Had Oklahoma lost one fewer games, or would’ve gone, 2014 title notwithstanding.

2017: OSU got shut out because it lost twice, and one of those losses was to Iowa by blowout. Bama being Bama certainly helped, as did the fact the Tide would’ve been favored against the other three teams in the field. If OSU didn’t lose to Iowa or OU, it probably goes. (And if OU has two losses, Bama goes in its place)

2018: This was the most interesting one, and even this I don’t think had a lick to do with previous playoff appearances. OSU managed to get in a narrative rut, with even our educated posters holding them behind Michigan over and over. And by the time the humiliated Michigan, it mostly just tore down the Wolverines and didn’t boost OSU (bad conference title game does didn’t help, nor did the scoreboard watching that day). It was strange because that shoulda been a real, bonafide controversy and it hardly was. Perhaps this is because whoever met Bama was gonna get slaughtered, and we all figured, why not OU? The UGA part was weird, but they had some push off nearly beating Bama, and the order after 4 is kinda meaningless. I mean, OSU, a team with a title was held out by a team/conference that had yet to win a playoff game.

Anyway. Maybe this puts a pox on the Big 12, but that will start with the CFP breaking other conventions. There’s still only five P5 champs. And at least one or two usually take multiple losses. And as long as that happens, the Big 12 champ will probably keep going in perpetuity as long as it has a single loss, save for years ND has 1 or zero losses, when it might be a little more competitive. Interestingly the Big 12, is in a slightly good spot because it’s setup makes a one-loss non-champ a harder feat to pull off (one-loss teams can’t lose division tiebreakers).

We can talk about the relative merits of going by record (a legit question). But in the end, we’ll still need more viable options to replace OU. This year that would have been: An LSU-UGA rematch (nah), two-loss Oregon which got upended by ASU and the best parts of the resume are beating USC, Utah and a lot of 7-5 teams, the Baylor squad OU swept and two-loss Bama with a backup QB. Maybe those teams don’t get jumped quite so badly, but they still get battered and we’re left saying “were they really the best for that spot?”

Cincydawg · « **Reply #58 on:** January 01, 2020, 07:44:01 AM »

There is a fairly rotund fellow they feature on ESPN who covers betting, I have no clue if he's any good or not, don't care much, but of all the games he picked this season, he chose UGA over Baylor, give the points. I thought at first he was saying Baylor, as I think Baylor is a very good team, and UGA is down 15 players now for the bowl, many of them starters (including three from the OL). And I have not thought UGA was doing well at all on offense this year. The defense is pretty sound, but the offense struggles to RTDB.

I'll stick with picking Baylor. Maybe the "kids" UGA will have to play will be highly motivated and pull this off. Might be better than guys protecting their NFL status.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #59 on:** January 01, 2020, 07:45:16 AM »

I was idly thinking about this LSU-Clemson game, and again, I think it will be close unless one team gets a bunch of TOs. It will be close enough that 1-2-3 "key plays" (calls) will determine the winner. I fear the refs may play a role, again.

TyphonInc · « **Reply #60 on:** January 10, 2020, 08:46:20 PM »

No, we are not a bitter fan base at all. Actual Radio spot for 97.1 The Fan Columbus Sports Radio.

"NCAA National Championship Game, LSU vs. Clemson brought to you by... Really... Bad... Officiating, in the Fiesta Bowl. 97.1 is airing a game Ohio St should be in but isn't. Monday Night 8pm."

ELA · « **Reply #61 on:** January 10, 2020, 08:57:18 PM »

I think the Championship Game is closer to Spring Games than Thanksgiving

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #62 on:** January 10, 2020, 10:24:31 PM »

I'm picking Clemson, as I'm assuming about 50 of LSU's players are locked up for what they did to OU.

MaximumSam · « **Reply #63 on:** January 11, 2020, 06:53:05 AM »

Quote from: ELA on January 10, 2020, 08:57:18 PM

I think the Championship Game is closer to Spring Games than Thanksgiving

I know, I keep forgetting there is still another game. Today would have been a good time time for the game (or even better, last Saturday). As it is there's a decent chance I'll forget the game is on Monday night if I'm doing something else.

MarqHusker · « **Reply #64 on:** January 11, 2020, 11:21:16 AM »

While I concede we will never go back to the old bowl/poll system, cant the TV honks figure out a better programming plan? Why are they so in love w Monday night? NFL avoidance is understandable, but, the ceding of NYD is the bigger problem. I still cant get over how surprised they were when the NY Eve experiment blew up in their faces.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #65 on:** January 12, 2020, 11:47:59 PM »

So CBSsports.com has their 8-experts pick the game thing....here's the scores:
32-29
34-31
37-30
35-31
35-31
37-31
37-33
38-29
.
All the same. My problem isn't with all the scores being the same or their experts all playing it safe or prudent or whatever you want to call it. Here's the thing...if your 8 experts all think the same thing, why bother with 8 experts?
.
Shrug.

MarqHusker · « **Reply #66 on:** January 13, 2020, 12:05:40 AM »

I definitely like a first half under. I kind of like the under generally.

MrNubbz · « **Reply #67 on:** January 13, 2020, 09:55:41 AM »

Geaux Jeaux Burreaux,hopes he wipes that smug,snotty smile off Dabos petulant puss.Their were other smug coaches but between luck,God and Bagmen he takes the cakeSpurrier had that same look but he was clever/interesting,not the condescending Jesus is our OC bs

MaximumSam · « **Reply #68 on:** January 13, 2020, 10:51:09 AM »

Congrats to the future champs, whoever that is, because I'll probably be asleep by the time they determine it

MrNubbz · « **Reply #69 on:** January 13, 2020, 04:16:19 PM »

Ya might have to reach for the Yuban instead of the Yuengling if I'm going to hang on until Dabo gets his just deserts

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Topic: CFP National Championship game: #1 LSU (14-0) vs #3 Clemson (14-0)

CWSooner

Re: CFP National Championship game: #1 LSU (14-0) vs #3 Clemson (14-0)

bayareabadger

Re: CFP National Championship game: #1 LSU (14-0) vs #3 Clemson (14-0)

Cincydawg

Re: CFP National Championship game: #1 LSU (14-0) vs #3 Clemson (14-0)

Cincydawg

Re: CFP National Championship game: #1 LSU (14-0) vs #3 Clemson (14-0)

TyphonInc

Re: CFP National Championship game: #1 LSU (14-0) vs #3 Clemson (14-0)

ELA

Re: CFP National Championship game: #1 LSU (14-0) vs #3 Clemson (14-0)

OrangeAfroMan

Re: CFP National Championship game: #1 LSU (14-0) vs #3 Clemson (14-0)

MaximumSam

Re: CFP National Championship game: #1 LSU (14-0) vs #3 Clemson (14-0)

MarqHusker

Re: CFP National Championship game: #1 LSU (14-0) vs #3 Clemson (14-0)

OrangeAfroMan

Re: CFP National Championship game: #1 LSU (14-0) vs #3 Clemson (14-0)

MarqHusker

Re: CFP National Championship game: #1 LSU (14-0) vs #3 Clemson (14-0)

MrNubbz

Re: CFP National Championship game: #1 LSU (14-0) vs #3 Clemson (14-0)

MaximumSam

Re: CFP National Championship game: #1 LSU (14-0) vs #3 Clemson (14-0)

MrNubbz

Re: CFP National Championship game: #1 LSU (14-0) vs #3 Clemson (14-0)