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It's tricky.  If you look closer at turnovers, there's more nuance.  
For any volume of passes, you're going to have x% intercepted.  But what kind of interceptions?
What do we do where there is a miscommunication and the QB throws it right to the defender, since the WR made a poor read?
What about a pass tipped at the line that wobbles into a defender's hands?  We may want to say that's a good defensive play, to get your hands up.  But a defensive lineman only does that if his pass-rush was ineffective.  
With that one, it makes me think about the idea that there can be no truly great 2nd basemen in baseball, as they're all just failed shortstops.
If your pass-rusher has more batted balls than sacks...he's not doing his job well.
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Other 'luck' potentials in football are ball-marking by the refs, penalties witnessed and called by refs, injuries (and not just 'injuries,' but who and at what point in the game, etc), quality of teams you play consecutively, weather conditions, and on and on.

I really think a big one that no one mentions is the ref's ball-marking on low-stakes, 2nd down plays in the first half.  They're not being shitty with it or unethical, but please don't tell me they're being as careful then as they are on 4th and 1 plays in the 4th quarter, either.
So maybe teams have to punt 0.3 times more, on average, than they actually should have to.  That's not nothing.  But the game really is a game of inches and those inches add up here and there.  

Yeah, kickoff and punt returns are going the way of the dodo.  Used to be super exciting if you had a great return man....no longer.

TCU is a weird one.  The year they made it to the NCG,  they did not even win their conference,  barely beat Mich in the semis, and got  annihilated in the NCG by Georgia.  So I look at TCU as a top ten team that year that got a little lucky.  Lucky to be in the playoffs in the first place.  Lucky to beat Mich.  On the other hand in 2014,  TCU had a similar resume and missed the playoffs.  Sometimes it's about timing.  I guess it evens out for TCU.

Heh, TCUN had so little respect for TCU they didn't send Stallions to steal their signals. TCUN looked like a mortal team when then didn't know where the blitzes where coming from, or if it was a pass or run play ahead of time.

This game to me shows more than any other how much of an advantage TCUN were getting from their illegal sign stealing mafia operation.

Unfortunately for Michigan, they played them like their hair was on fire. 

Unfortunately for Michigan, Connor didn't have time to scout TCU

Rumor is TCU knew about it and changed things up.  Not sure if true but it would explain some of what happened...

I really think a big one that no one mentions is the ref's ball-marking on low-stakes, 2nd down plays in the first half.  They're not being shitty with it or unethical, but please don't tell me they're being as careful then as they are on 4th and 1 plays in the 4th quarter, either.

I agree with everything you've said here.  There is no doubt that refs aren't as careful about spotting the ball on low-stakes 2nd down plays in the first half as they are about 4th and 1 plays in the 4th quarter but I would think that overall it would balance out.  Sure, you might have a 2nd and 6 where you gain 3 but only get 2 because you get a bad spot but the next series you might have a 2nd and 7 where you gain 4 but get 5 because you get a good spot.  

Rumor is TCU knew about it and changed things up.  Not sure if true but it would explain some of what happened...

In defending their school's unethical behavior a lot of Michigan fans have made the argument that it didn't matter vis-a-vis Ohio State because Ohio State "knew about it and changed things up."  

I've repeatedly pointed out that this is nonsensical for a multitude of reasons:

First, even if your cheating didn't actually gain you an advantage, you STILL cheated.  You aren't exonerated simply because you are incompetent.  

Second, the idea that Ohio State "changed things up" on a week's prep is ludicrous.  Remember that Ohio State at the time was typically running a no-huddle where EVERY player on the field looks to the sideline for the sign.  That means that EVERY player on the field has to know the new scheme.  This is an important distinction.  If you are running a huddle then ONLY one guy on the field needs to know the signs.  He can tell everyone else.  Thus, you could teach the new signs to your smartest player and ignore the rest.  If you are running a no-huddle then literally the dumbest guy on the field has to know the signs.  We all know that a lot of the guys playing on all of our teams aren't exactly rocket scientists

Third, even if we assume that Ohio State's starters were all Rhodes Scholar level intellects who could manage to memorize a completely new sign scheme in a week, that would still be an advantage to the cheaters because all the time Ohio State spent learning the new sign scheme is time that they are unable to spend watching film of and prepping for the cheaters.  

Fourth, even if we assumed that Ohio State's starters were all that smart and someone at Ohio State invented a time machine so that the guys could learn new signs without cutting into their other practice time there is a decoding advantage.  As a history buff I've read a LOT about the US and British decryption efforts during WWII.  One thing you will learn if you read about that is that the Germans and Japanese did periodically change their codes and when that happened it took the US and British a while to crack the new codes.  However, cracking the replacement codes was VASTLY quicker than cracking the initial code because they already knew the structure.  

The same thing applies here.  Even if Ohio State did change their signs, the cheaters already knew the structure of Ohio State's sign system so it would then be easier for them to crack the new code in game.  

In TCU's case, some things are different: 

First, from what we have heard, the cheaters illegally scouted "likely" CFP opponents.  That is why they bought tickets to the SECCG and to some Clemson games, etc.  However, they didn't consider TCU to be "likely" enough to warrant illegally scouting them so the cheaters ignored TCU and didn't have illegal advanced scouting on them.  

Second, it was announced that TCU would face the cheaters in the CFP Semi-Final approximately five weeks before the game occurred.  Thus, if TCU needed to change their signs, they had five weeks to accomplish that instead of the five days that in-season opponents had.  That makes everything above a bit more achievable.