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If 7 or 8 is the national expectation, this should be even more fun than I was thinking. :- )

Meanwhile, I think you understate what returns. I'm not waxing about unproven recruits. There was a large mass of high performing, high snap count back-ups who return. I mean...Rashan Gary, Mo Hurst, Bryan Mone, and Winovich, as examples, were technically back-ups. That's insane.

I think seven or eight is too low but we'll see.  One thing that I think helps Michigan immensely is that two of their four likely toughest games are the last two weeks of the regular season.  Their young and green new starters will not be so young and green by the time they play Wisconsin and Ohio State in late November. 

If the Wolverines were playing UF, PSU, UW, and tOSU in the first four weeks I would expect them to do no better than 2-2 and probably 1-3 or 0-4. 

As it is, I expect Michigan to lose between two and four games so my prediction would be anywhere from 8-4 up to 10-2 with 9-3 as the figure I would pick if forced to commit to a prediction of record. 

It is an interesting first game for both the Gators and the Wolverines.  Michigan's defense will have 11 new starters but if Florida's offense isn't any better than it was last year that really shouldn't matter much. 

Both teams will have a lot of new starters and this is a game that could be crucial depending on how things go down the road.  So far in the playoff era a single loss hasn't been decisive for any P5 team so long as that loss did not prevent them from winning an undisputed league title.  However, no 2-loss team has made the playoffs.  Thus, the loser of the UF/M game has literally zero margin for error. 

If Michigan wins the Flordia game, avoids upsets, and goes 2-1 through their other toughest games of @PSU, @UW, vtOSU then they should be a playoff contender but if they lose the Florida game then they would probably have to go undefeated the rest of the way. 

The other thing that makes this interesting is that the winning team could end up sputtering and that would look really bad for the winner.  It isn't impossible to imagine the UF/M winner going 7-5 while the loser goes 10-2.  That would look really bad for the losing team's conference. 

On the subject of Florida I really don't know what to expect.  They have an odd schedule.  They have a ton of tough looking opponents but almost all are at home and none are true road games.  Florida's schedule:

• 7 home games (No. Colorado, UT, Vandy, LSU, aTm, UAB, FSU)
• 2 neutral games (Michigan in Dallas, Georgia in Jacksonville WLOCP)
• 3 road games (UK, Mizzou, USCe)

It is a tough schedule but at the same time that is probably the easiest road slate of any P5 team in the country. 

Big Ten favorites since 2011

Here are the past six Big Ten preaseason favorites — as predicted in the annual Cleveland.com Big Ten media poll — as well as the team that actually took home the trophy.

* * *

2016

Preseason favorite: Ohio State

Actual champion: Penn State

2015

Preseason favorite: Ohio State

Actual champion: Michigan State

2014

Preseason: Michigan State

Actual: Ohio State

2013

Preseason: Ohio State

Actual: Michigan State

2012

Preseason: Michigan

Actual: Wisconsin

2011

Preseason: Nebraska

Actual: Wisconsin

Cleveland.com has to be the only site to go 0-for-6 over that stretch.

I mean, they don't pick it exactly. They just poll media members because the conference doesn't do one. Same as the SEC or ACC.

More interesting is how each happened. OSU was the pick three of four years and fell short. The only time they weren't was because everyone got really high on MSU, and that didn't change until OSU threw all over MSU late in the year.

Wisconsin's 2012 title was so dumb, it was basically unpredictable. 2011 was basically a big what if until Wilson showed he could burn the world down (and even that was tight).