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Topic: In the 12 team playoff scheme ....

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Cincydawg

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Re: In the 12 team playoff scheme ....
« Reply #14 on: July 14, 2021, 12:42:52 PM »
If all 12 teams are "the same", we'd expect the five seed to win only 1 time in 12, on average of course.  I think it plausible "every so often" that a 5 seed is say 11-2 and came on late and is really good, we all have seen that.  But they still have to beat two very very good teams, which is not probable.

FearlessF

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Re: In the 12 team playoff scheme ....
« Reply #15 on: July 14, 2021, 12:44:32 PM »
2 very good teams and 1 good team
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: In the 12 team playoff scheme ....
« Reply #16 on: July 14, 2021, 04:01:12 PM »
@medinabuckeye1 - when you're doing fun, back-of-the-envelope math like that, you need to include that in 7 years, no 3 seed has won it! 
There could be more to it, but my thinking is that the lack of #3 seeds winning is just a random thing.  

So here is the whole history by seed:
2014:
  • 0-1
  • 1-1
  • 0-1
  • 2-0
2015:
  • 1-1 - 1-2
  • 2-0 - 3-1
  • 0-1 - 0-2
  • 0-1 - 2-1
2016:
  • 1-1 - 2-3
  • 2-0 - 5-1
  • 0-1 - 0-3
  • 0-1 - 2-2

2017:
  • 0-1 - 2-4
  • 0-1 - 5-2
  • 1-1 - 1-4
  • 2-0 - 4-2
2018:
  • 1-1 - 3-5
  • 2-0 - 7-2
  • 0-1 - 1-5
  • 0-1 - 4-3
2019:
  • 2-0 - 5-5
  • 0-1 - 7-3
  • 1-1 - 2-6
  • 0-1 - 4-4
2020:
  • 2-0 - 7-5
  • 0-1 - 7-4
  • 1-1 - 3-7
  • 0-1 - 4-5
Champions:
  • Two (2019, 2020)
  • Three (2015, 2016, 2018)
  • Zero
  • Two (2014, 2017)

Up through 2018 the #1 seed had never won the NC and they were a pretty dismal 3-5 overall but they've won the last two to improve to two NC's and 7-5 overall.  The #4 seeds started out great winning two of the first four and being 4-2 overall through 2017 but they haven't won a game since so now they are 4-5.  

Last three years:
  • 5-1, two NC's
  • 2-2, one NC
  • 2-3, no NC's
  • 0-3
That seems like statistically what you would expect in general.  

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: In the 12 team playoff scheme ....
« Reply #17 on: July 14, 2021, 05:38:45 PM »
2 very good teams and 1 good team



3 very good teams and 1 good team, by my count. 



  • Play in round (1 good team)
  • Elite 8 (1st very good team)
  • Final 4 (2nd very good team)
  • NCG (3rd very good team)

1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: In the 12 team playoff scheme ....
« Reply #18 on: July 14, 2021, 08:20:27 PM »
There could be more to it, but my thinking is that the lack of #3 seeds winning is just a random thing. 
Yup
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