Here are the CFP rankings:
- 12-0 Ohio State -4.5 vs #2 IU B1GCG in Indy
- 12-0 Indiana +4.5 vs #1 tOSU B1GCG in Indy
- 11-1 Georgia -2.5 vs #9 Bama SECCG in Atlanta, MB Stadium
- 11-1 TxTech -12.5 vs #11 BYU B12CG in JerryWorld
- 11-1 Oregon - Regular Season Complete
- 11-1 Ole Miss - Regular Season Complete
- 11-1 aTm - Regular Season Complete
- 10-2 Oklahoma - Regular Season Complete
- 10-2 Bama +2.5 vs #3 UGA SECCG in ATL, MB Stadium
- 10-2 Notre Dame - Regular Season Complete
- 11-1 BYU +12.5 vs #4 TxTech B12CG in JerryWorld
- 10-2 Miami - Regular Season Complete
- 9-3 Texas - Regular Season Complete
- 10-2 Vandy - Regular Season Complete
- 10-2 Utah - Regular Season Complete
- 9-3 USC - Regular Season Complete
- 10-2 Virginia -3.5 vs 7-5 Dook ACCCG in Charlotte
- 9-3 Arizona - Regular Season Complete
- 9-3 Michigan - Regular Season Complete
- 10-2 Tulane +2.5 vs #24 NTX AACCG
- 9-3 Houston - Regular Season Complete
- 9-3 GaTech - Regular Season Complete
- 8-4 Iowa - Regular Season Complete
- 11-1 N. Texas -2.5 at #20 Tulane AACCG
- 11-1 James Madison -23.5 vs 8-4 Troy SBLTCG
Joel Klatt pointed out something that I hadn't thought of that is interesting: Notre Dame might be screwed no matter what happens. Here is why:
The obvious one is that if BYU upsets TxTech there is a strong precedent NOT to drop TxTech from #4 all the way to behind ND and out of the playoff so a BYU win almost certainly knocks out the Irish.
The other side of that coin, however, might end up in the same result for ND. If BYU loses then they probably drop behind at least the Hurricanes. That would put the Hurricanes adjacent to the Irish in the rankings and if those two are adjacent the Irish may not like that result because their resume isn't materially better than Miami's and the Irish have a H2H loss to the Hurricanes.
Right now the Irish are the "last team in" at least in theory but in practice there might not actually be a way for them to stay there.
The second interesting issue is that there appears to be essentially zero chance of an 8-5 ACC Champion Dook going to the playoff so if the Blue Devils do manage to beat Virginia (they are only 3.5 point dogs) then there will be two G6 (whatever it is) Champions in the playoff. The winner between #20 Tulane and #24 N. Texas is already assured of a spot but if Virginia loses the ACCCG then #25 JMU is in with a win and if JMU loses the next best G6 CG winner (possibly UNLV) is likely in ahead of an 8-5 Dook team that:
- Lost at home to Illinois by 26
- Lost at Tulane by 7
- Lost at home to GaTech by 9
- Lost at UCONN by a FG
- Lost at home to UVA by 17
- Their ONLY quality win would be the ACCCG upset of UVA.
I saw some guys claim that Bama has to win to get in and I disagree 100%. Last year the committee kept a crappy SMU team in after they lost their craptastic CG and if you aren't booting crappy teams for losing their CGs then you aren't booting Bama for losing the SECCG to #3 UGA. I honestly don't even think Bama would fall out if the SECCG ended up 59-0 in favor of UGA. I just don't see it.
The #5 and #6 seeds are going to get ridiculously easy first round home games against UVA/JMU/Tulane/NTX.