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Topic: CCG Weekend games and scenarios, the CFP Bubble

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medinabuckeye1

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CCG Weekend games and scenarios, the CFP Bubble
« on: December 03, 2025, 03:28:16 PM »
Here are the CFP rankings:

  • 12-0 Ohio State -4.5 vs #2 IU B1GCG in Indy
  • 12-0 Indiana +4.5 vs #1 tOSU B1GCG in Indy
  • 11-1 Georgia -2.5 vs #9 Bama SECCG in Atlanta, MB Stadium
  • 11-1 TxTech -12.5 vs #11 BYU B12CG in JerryWorld
  • 11-1 Oregon - Regular Season Complete
  • 11-1 Ole Miss - Regular Season Complete
  • 11-1 aTm - Regular Season Complete
  • 10-2 Oklahoma - Regular Season Complete
  • 10-2 Bama +2.5 vs #3 UGA SECCG in ATL, MB Stadium
  • 10-2 Notre Dame - Regular Season Complete
  • 11-1 BYU +12.5 vs #4 TxTech B12CG in JerryWorld
  • 10-2 Miami - Regular Season Complete
  • 9-3 Texas - Regular Season Complete
  • 10-2 Vandy - Regular Season Complete
  • 10-2 Utah - Regular Season Complete
  • 9-3 USC - Regular Season Complete
  • 10-2 Virginia -3.5 vs 7-5 Dook ACCCG in Charlotte
  • 9-3 Arizona - Regular Season Complete
  • 9-3 Michigan - Regular Season Complete
  • 10-2 Tulane +2.5 vs #24 NTX AACCG
  • 9-3 Houston - Regular Season Complete
  • 9-3 GaTech - Regular Season Complete
  • 8-4 Iowa - Regular Season Complete
  • 11-1 N. Texas -2.5 at #20 Tulane AACCG
  • 11-1 James Madison -23.5 vs 8-4 Troy SBLTCG

Joel Klatt pointed out something that I hadn't thought of that is interesting:  Notre Dame might be screwed no matter what happens.  Here is why:

The obvious one is that if BYU upsets TxTech there is a strong precedent NOT to drop TxTech from #4 all the way to behind ND and out of the playoff so a BYU win almost certainly knocks out the Irish.  

The other side of that coin, however, might end up in the same result for ND.  If BYU loses then they probably drop behind at least the Hurricanes.  That would put the Hurricanes adjacent to the Irish in the rankings and if those two are adjacent the Irish may not like that result because their resume isn't materially better than Miami's and the Irish have a H2H loss to the Hurricanes.  


Right now the Irish are the "last team in" at least in theory but in practice there might not actually be a way for them to stay there.  

The second interesting issue is that there appears to be essentially zero chance of an 8-5 ACC Champion Dook going to the playoff so if the Blue Devils do manage to beat Virginia (they are only 3.5 point dogs) then there will be two G6 (whatever it is) Champions in the playoff.  The winner between #20 Tulane and #24 N. Texas is already assured of a spot but if Virginia loses the ACCCG then #25 JMU is in with a win and if JMU loses the next best G6 CG winner (possibly UNLV) is likely in ahead of an 8-5 Dook team that:
  • Lost at home to Illinois by 26
  • Lost at Tulane by 7
  • Lost at home to GaTech by 9
  • Lost at UCONN by a FG
  • Lost at home to UVA by 17
  • Their ONLY quality win would be the ACCCG upset of UVA.  

I saw some guys claim that Bama has to win to get in and I disagree 100%.  Last year the committee kept a crappy SMU team in after they lost their craptastic CG and if you aren't booting crappy teams for losing their CGs then you aren't booting Bama for losing the SECCG to #3 UGA.  I honestly don't even think Bama would fall out if the SECCG ended up 59-0 in favor of UGA.  I just don't see it.  

The #5 and #6 seeds are going to get ridiculously easy first round home games against UVA/JMU/Tulane/NTX.  


FearlessF

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Re: CCG Weekend games and scenarios, the CFP Bubble
« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2025, 03:31:20 PM »
In my cornsidered opinion.............

if the Raiders lose to the Mormans, the Raiders should be out

the Canes should be out

the Irish should be out
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: CCG Weekend games and scenarios, the CFP Bubble
« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2025, 05:28:13 PM »
I find this fascinating:
https://www.si.com/college-football/vanderbilt-tried-to-schedule-13th-game

Apparently Vanderbilt wanted to schedule a 13th game with Miami. That would have been interesting. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: CCG Weekend games and scenarios, the CFP Bubble
« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2025, 06:42:43 PM »
I find this fascinating:
https://www.si.com/college-football/vanderbilt-tried-to-schedule-13th-game

Apparently Vanderbilt wanted to schedule a 13th game with Miami. That would have been interesting.
It would have to have been outside the Continental US, right?

Imagine if Vandy and Miami had worked out a deal to play in the Bahamas this weekend. What would the committee do with that? Either way, a close but out bubble team would pick up a huge quality win.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: CCG Weekend games and scenarios, the CFP Bubble
« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2025, 07:14:37 PM »
In theory what do you suppose would happen if Army and/or Navy were the top G6(s), and they played each other a week after the final bracket was released? 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: CCG Weekend games and scenarios, the CFP Bubble
« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2025, 09:59:26 PM »
'Murica would happen.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: CCG Weekend games and scenarios, the CFP Bubble
« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2025, 10:00:05 PM »
I get it, BUT Vandy is acting like a boy about to bust a nut just reaching to touch his first boob.
Dude!  
At least touch it first!!
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Gigem

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Re: CCG Weekend games and scenarios, the CFP Bubble
« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2025, 12:07:10 AM »
LOL! 

ELA

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Re: CCG Weekend games and scenarios, the CFP Bubble
« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2025, 09:11:30 AM »
In my cornsidered opinion.............

if the Raiders lose to the Mormans, the Raiders should be out

the Canes should be out

the Irish should be out
I don't love the idea of punishing teams for making a CCG to reward a team who didn't.

It's messier because of unbalanced schedules, but nobody made them chase money.

I'd still rather go to last years model of the top 4 CCG winners getting the byes, but changing that they are also seeded 1-4

FearlessF

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Re: CCG Weekend games and scenarios, the CFP Bubble
« Reply #9 on: December 05, 2025, 09:28:07 AM »
It's kinda like any game on anyone's schedule

if you win it helps, if ya lose it hurts

if you're a deserving team, prove it on the field
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

ELA

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Re: CCG Weekend games and scenarios, the CFP Bubble
« Reply #10 on: December 05, 2025, 09:35:30 AM »
So you'd be better off being Texas A&M and not making it?  Seems like a weird set of incentives

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Gigem

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Re: CCG Weekend games and scenarios, the CFP Bubble
« Reply #11 on: December 05, 2025, 09:40:02 AM »
So you'd be better off being Texas A&M and not making it?  Seems like a weird set of incentives

The Only Way To Win - Thrive Global
That quote is...prescient.  

Cincydawg

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Re: CCG Weekend games and scenarios, the CFP Bubble
« Reply #12 on: December 05, 2025, 09:42:12 AM »
I wonder if it might make sense during CG weekend to have a miniplayoff between teams on the cusp.  Instead of a larger playoff, have two playin games.

ELA

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Re: CCG Weekend games and scenarios, the CFP Bubble
« Reply #13 on: December 05, 2025, 09:56:07 AM »
I wonder if it might make sense during CG weekend to have a miniplayoff between teams on the cusp.  Instead of a larger playoff, have two playin games.
I was thinking if you do 14, and then give the Big Ten and SEC champs the 2 byes.  Then the other two P4 champs auto-bids.  Then save TWO spots for Group of 5 champs, you could next week have the #1 ranked G5 champ play the #4 ranked G5 champ, then the #2 ranked G3 champ play the #3 ranked G5 champ for the #13 and #14 seeds.

Would give you SOME reason to care about the MAC Championship Game.  Nothing would come of it, but WMU would know if they could beat Miami(Ohio) and then JMU or Tulane, then they would get to go lose by 70 in Eugene.

Plus it would nearly be a de facto bye, but you'd get the revenue of a home playoff game for that #3 team.

 

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