The NCAA is going to lose this battle. California will not be the only state and many will follow.
i've already offered up my
expert legal opinion* once, and got promptly shut down by... someone, maybe you
@Entropy , i can't remember who is a lawyer here.
but some attorneys on reddit seem to think the ncaa has a decent leg to stand on with the commerce clause. this is a copy/paste from one such post on there, with a direct quote from a case concerning the commerce clause test:
"When a state statute directly regulates or discriminates against interstate commerce, or when its effect is to favor in-state economic interests over out-of-state interests, we have generally struck down the statute without further inquiry. When, however, a statute has only indirect effects on interstate commerce and regulates evenhandedly, we have examined whether the State's interest is legitimate and whether the burden on interstate commerce clearly exceeds the local benefits."
Miller vs NCAA
"Translated, if a state statute affects interstate commerce (even if that's not the intention), it can be ruled unconstitutional." the miller vs ncaa case dealt with a state enacting a law that affected ncaa rules/regulations and how one state's laws affected other state's institutions and how the ncaa treated them vs others. not all that different from the cal law. the 9th circuit court (which this law, if challenged in court, will be seen in 9th circuit, or so i'm told) ruled in ncaa favor, and attorneys and people much smarter than me think this has precedent. other, also much smarter than me, think otherwise. point is, i don't think it's a slam dunk either way.
my humble guess is that by the time all this is done, likeness, etc will be gainful for the students, but with major limitations in amounts and how-to's, etc.
* - all that "expert legal opinion" is fully tongue in cheek, i am clearly not an attorney, and have no expertise in the legal realm.