Note: Sorry this was a little rushed a little this week. Due to being out of town, there will probably not be a post next week (if there is, it will be just the lists) and the week after that will may well be very short too.
Teams with first loss week 0 or 1:
Florida State
New Mexico
Nevada
Jacksonville State
Minnesota
Temple
Florida Atlantic
Western Michigan
Stanford
Clemson
Akron
Colorado State
Western Kentucky
Texas A&M
Penn State
Fresno State
Florida
Virginia Tech
Connecticut
Kent State
Florida International
UTEP
Massachusetts
Ohio U.
(Kennesaw State)
Miami (OH)
Georgia Southern
Old Dominion
South Alabama
Houston
Rice
Troy
Hawaii
Southern Mississippi
Georgia State
Charlotte
Wyoming
Louisiana State
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 28.4% (38 of 134)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 11
-I am still assuming no more than one undefeated per conference until we get deeper in season even if there are technically ways to get more.
-Nine conference champs, plus Oregon State/Washington State and Notre Dame. We lost the possibility of UMass/UConn.
Week 1 Thoughts:
-It is great to have college football back.
-I have been thinking of these lists a little and how things will likely often play out in this new set-up. Without going back to past years, I am basically leaning to the following as my initial working assumptions:
1. Any undefeated team from the Power 4 conferences at the end of the regular season is certainly in the quarterfinal bowls.
2. Most our 1-loss teams in the Power 4 will be either be conference champs and in the quarterfinals bowls or be hosting teams in the first round.
3. Teams with 2 losses from the Power 4 conferences (outside of those winning their conference) will mostly be looking to make the playoff, but we will probably see a couple of 2 loss teams hosting.
4. Three loss teams will need a lot. We will probably occasionally see some in, but I think two losses will usually still be the cut off for most teams.
5. The Group of 5 race will look very similar to how it did the entire 4 team playoff era. The big question now is how long will it take to get a 2nd team in. It likely will happen eventually.
-This would have been a disaster of a first week for the ACC in the 4 team playoff era as the expected top teams except Miami have a loss. It isn't as big a deal now. The champ is still in no matter what and a 2nd team can still certainly sneak in. Still, this week did them no favors and the conference really needs Miami to be back. That said, Miami did look very good and too much shouldn't be read in Clemson's loss to Georgia just yet.
-Notre Dame winning was very significant. The Irish are probably in the CFP with 2 losses and that was one of their biggest games.
-We had a lot of FCS games and very few upsets with them.
-It is still weird seeing all the conference changes. I think seeing the ACC logo on Standford's field still felt the strangest to me on Friday.
-Will get more into the various races as we get a bit further in season.
Week 2 Thoughts:
-If I counted right, we have 33 games between undefeated FBS teams this week. Here are my thoughts on a few of them:
BYU at SMU/Duke at Northwestern: Not a bad set of Friday games. It would be a nice start for the weekend for the ACC if they could win both. SMU is favored and Duke only a small underdog.
Texas at Michigan: Biggest game of weekend between two of last years 4 teams in the CFP. Michigan is making a new start and a win here would be huge. Texas wants to show is has made the leap back to the elite level for more than a single season. A loss for either doesn't leave a ton of room for more losses the rest of the way.
Kansas State at Tulane: Tulane made the NY6 recently and Kansas State is ranked. Would help American's chances with a win.
Pitt at Cincinnati: Renewed old Big East rivalry. Less than a 2 point spread.
Iowa State at Iowa: Last year Iowa had a truly elite defense and an offense that was one of the worst in FBS. Did they put it together this year? Iowa is a 3 point favorite.
Tennessee at North Carolina State: An interesting ranked vs. ranked, SEC vs. ACC game. There might be room for North Carolina State to move up in the ACC this year. On the flip side, Tennessee seemed to have things going in the right direction last year and it will be interesting to see they can continue that way.
Colorado at Nebraska: Old Big 8/Big 12 rivalry. Colorado struggled some vs. a very good FCS team last week. Nebraska seems a little further along in righting the ship, but that view of mine would change with a loss here. A win here would spark a lot more talk on “Coach Prime” again.
Appalachian State at 1-loss Clemson: Clemson is looking to rebound from a disappointing start vs. Georgia. Appalachian State has been dangerous to good teams in the past.
Boise State at Oregon: Oregon seemed to be able to do everything but score last year. If the Broncos could pull this off, they would be favorite for the Group of 5 playoff spot.
Texas Tech at Washington State: Less than a 3 point spread. Washington State and Oregon State could really use a season that brings attention to them.
Mississippi State at Arizona State: The sundevils favored by less than a touchdown in this SEC vs. Big 12 game.
Oregon State at San Diego State: One way or another, probably a conference game within a few years.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 13, American: 10, Big 12: 14, Big Ten: 17, Conference USA: 5, MAC: 7, Mountain West: 6, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 13, Sun Belt: 8, independents: 1, total: 96
Boston College
Maryland
North Carolina State
Wake Forest
Duke
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
North Carolina
Virginia
Colorado
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Nebraska
Baylor
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech
Cincinnati
Louisville
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
South Florida
Syracuse
West Virginia
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan State
Northwestern
Ohio State
Purdue
Wisconsin
UAB
East Carolina
Marshall
Memphis
Central Florida
Southern Methodist
Tulane
Tulsa
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Ball State
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois
Toledo
Air Force
Brigham Young
San Diego State
Texas Christian
UNLV
Utah
Arizona
Arizona State
California
Oregon
Oregon State
Southern California
UCLA
Washington
Washington State
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Mississippi State
Mississippi
Arkansas State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Middle Tennessee
North Texas
Boise State
Louisiana Tech
New Mexico State
San Jose State
Utah State
Army
Navy
Notre Dame
Texas State
UTSA
Appalachian State
Coastal Carolina
Liberty
James Madison
Sam Houston
