College Football is fundamentally different from something like say the NFL. The NFL's playing field is, at least in theory, somewhat self-levelling because the best teams get the worst draft picks and the worst teams get the best draft picks. In college football the players of the future freely choose where they want to play and it is inherent that a lot of them are going to want to play for Championships. A lot of them, therefore, are going to choose a proven winner.
Here is a chart I made of recruiting rankings (from 247) for the classes playing right now:
- 2016: Fifth year seniors in 2020
- 2017: Fourth year in 2020
- 2018: Third year in 2020
- 2019: Second year in 2020
- 2020: True freshman in 2020
I included all 19 teams that were ranked in the top-12 in any of the five years (I actually started out doing the top-10 but that got the top-12 because each of the teams ranked 11th or 12th in any of the five years were also ranked in the top-10 in at least one other year. The best teams not on the list for each year are:
- 2016: #13 UCLA
- 2017: #14 Stanford
- 2018: #16 Washington
- 2019: #16 Washington
- 2020: #13 UNC
Here is the chart:
Ole Miss is the big outlier. They had a great year in 2016 (#5 only behind usual suspects Bama, LSU, FSU, and tOSU) but the other four years are pretty weak.
Over the last five years (the players who just won the NC), Bama's recruiting classes have been ranked #1 thrice, #2 behind Georgia once, and #5 behind Georgia, tOSU, Texas, and USC once.
Nationally it is a "Bama" issue, but even regionally it is still an issue:
- In the B1G the top dog is Ohio State. Their median class over the last five years was #4. Michigan is second at #8.
- In the ACC the top dog is Clemson. Their median class over the last five years was #10. Florida State is second at #11 but that is misleading because FSU is trending down while Clemson is trending up.
- In the B12 the top dogs are Texas and Oklahoma at #7 and #9. No other B12 team has cracked the top-12 in any of the past five years.
- In the PAC the top dog is USC at #10. Oregon is second at #13 and no other PAC team cracked the top-12 in any of the past five years.
- In the SEC Georgia (median class of #2) and LSU (median class of #5) in theory should be beating Bama at least occasionally and LSU did but only once in the last nine years. Georgia did win an SEC Championship a few years ago but that was largely because they managed to miss Bama both in the regular season and in the SECCG but then Georgia lost to Bama in the NCG anyway. Georgia hasn't beaten Alabama since Saban's first year in Tuscaloosa and even then it was a 26-23 win by a Georgia team that finished 11-2 over an Alabama team that finished 7-6.
Things that will level this out eventually, first with respect to Bama nationally:
- Florida is trending up. There is a chicken-and-egg issue here but I think it is likely that the Gators will either start beating Bama occasionally on the recruiting trail and that will lead to game wins or the Gators will start beating Bama on the field occasionally and that will lead to recruiting wins.
- Clemson's recruiting is trending up. They have been good enough for long enough now that they are starting to get more of those top-notch recruits. Dabo will still try to play the underdog card all day long but it isn't true anymore. Maybe they'll take some of Bama's recruits?
- Georgia? I don't know what to say here. Looking at that chart the Dawgs are closer to Bama than any other team, even closer than Ohio State and Clemson. Yet for some reason Georgia hasn't beaten Alabama in more than a decade while Ohio State (1-1) and Clemson (2-2) are both even with the Tide in the Playoff era.
- The SEC in general. Georgia is nearly matching Bama in recruiting but they can't translate that into on-field wins. LSU, Auburn, Florida, and aTm have had only VERY limited success against the Tide on the field and haven't kept pace in recruiting but at least some of them (LSU and UF mostly) should be able to recruit in Bama's universe.
Fundamentally, recruiting is a fixed pie. A kid who chooses to go to Florida can't also choose to go to Bama. If Florida/LSU/Clemson's recruiting picks up then Bama's almost has to drop off. At least in theory that should happen eventually, right?
So long as Bama continues to dominate recruiting the results are generally going to look a lot like they looked Monday night. Sure, Bama will lose once in a while when Clemson/LSU/tOSU have the right confluence of events and Bama has a bit of a rebuild/reload year but in general they just have better players. Only Georgia is really recruiting with them and they have yet to find a way to convert those recruiting wins into on-field wins.
On the regional issues:
B1G:
Ohio State has been recruiting better than Michigan, but the gap isn't THAT big. In the seven years of the CFP era the gap between Ohio State's and Michigan's recruiting is large enough to explain a 4-3 or MAYBE 5-2 Ohio State advantage but nowhere near large enough to explain why Michigan hasn't beaten Ohio State in almost a decade and has one win in almost two decades.
ACC:
Florida State and Notre Dame are recruiting well enough that they should be able to beat the Tigers at least once in a while.
B12:
Texas is actually recruiting better than Oklahoma but you sure wouldn't know it from watching the games. The Longhorns have only beaten the Sooners three times in the last 11 years and one of those was a regular season win that was effectively negated when Oklahoma beat Texas in the B12CG that year (2018).
PAC:
USC has been out-recruiting Oregon but, much like Texas in the B12, they do not have a lot to show for it.
At least in theory Michigan, FSU/ND, Texas, and USC will eventually find a way to convert all of those stars into on-field wins over tOSU, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Oregon.
Note that the 19 teams that ranked in the top-12 in any of the past five years in recruiting were from the following leagues:
- 8 SEC: Bama, UGA, LSU, Auburn, UF, aTm, TN, Ole Miss
- 4 ACC (includes ND): Clemson, FSU, ND, Miami-FL
- 3 B1G: tOSU, M, PSU
- 2 B12: TX, OU
- 2 PAC: USC, Oregon
