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Topic: ELA November 3 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** November 02, 2018, 10:20:07 AM »

Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-4, 2-6) at #10 Ohio State Buckeyes (4-1, 7-1)

NOON - Columbus, OH - FOX

So with 2 weeks to rest, recover and renew following the debacle in West Lafayette, what Ohio State team do we get for the stretch run? Ohio State may have been sleepwalking through October, but if history is any indicator, they won't be this week. Seemingly nothing gets Urban Meyer's attention like that red N. In three meetings with Nebraska as Ohio State's coach, the Buckeyes aren't just 3-0, they are a convincing 3-0, putting up 63, 62 and 56 points, and winning those 3 games by an average score of 60-18. Scott Frost is what Urban Meyer was about 15 years ago, the new hot shot offensive minded head coach, and while early in the year it seemed like the Huskers might be at least a year away from getting the pieces together on that side of the ball, Frost has done an excellent job of accelerating the timeline. Three weeks ago, Nebraska put up 31 on a Northwestern defense that allowed 20 to Michigan, 19 to Michigan State, 15 to Rutgers and 17 to Wisconsin in its four other recent games. Then they hung 53 on Minnesota. Last week there were 8 minutes left in the third quarter before Nebraska's first punt against Bethune-Cookman. Nebraska fans like winning, however it comes, but they'd like to see a little bit of defense played along the way. Even Bethune-Cookman moved the ball decently enough against the "Blackshirts," but turned the ball over three times. This is still a Husker Unit giving up over 500 yards per game in Big Ten play, including over 300 through the air. So enter Dwayne Haskins, and his three consecutive 400 yard passing days. He's done it while completing 71% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. The issue is why is Ohio State throwing the ball over 50 times a game? Because they don't trust their defense, and their running game continues to struggle. How do you complete 49 passes for 470 yards, and still only score 20 points? Because the offensive line continues to struggle to run block. It's really starting to get to J.K. Dobbins, who hasn't broken the 100 yard mark since the TCU game, and has now gone four consecutive games below 3.5 ypc. Prior to this four game stretch, it had only happened once in 18 games. He had only been held under 5.0 three times. S&P+ grades the Buckeyes as the #68 line in the FBS, but if they allowed you to break it down by date, my guess is they'd be much lower in the past month. And #68 is with a top 15 nationally sack prevent rate, so it shows you just how much that run blocking is dragging the whole thing down. Ohio State, by all reports, spent the bye working almost exclusively on the run game. Nebraska is giving up over 200 yards per game, and both of the top end Big Ten teams they've face (Michigan and Wisconsin) gashed them on the ground. Ohio State still has their issues, and they might just not be correctable enough this year to keep their streak against Michigan alive. But coming off the bye week, against an opponent that seems to always bring out the best in Meyer, in front of a home crowd, I think we see the best Ohio State we've seen all year. I think they find a way to turn yardage into points, which they've struggled with recently, going only 4-9 in the red zone the past two weeks, with no touchdowns, and for one Saturday, look like the Ohio State we thought we'd get this year.

OHIO STATE 45, NEBRASKA 19

Michigan State Spartans (3-2, 5-3) at Maryland Terrapins (3-2, 5-3)

NOON - College Park, MD - espn2

You take probably the two most schitzo teams in the conference, then add in the events of the past couple days, and I have zero idea what to expect here. At their best Michigan State has a pair of wins over ranked teams, and completely shut down a Purdue offense that lit up Ohio State. At their worst, they lost at home to Northwestern, and looked completely inept against Michigan. Maryland has a neutral field win over Texas, and three dominant Big Ten wins. At their worst, they have three blowout losses, including one to Temple. Then you mix in the past week. There is certainly some level of fracture among the team, but its unclear just how much, how much is misreported, but how much is out there unreported. Is the fracture better with Durkin gone than if Durkin had been coaching? There's no way of knowing. What has been surprisingly steady, particularly in the absence of Durkin, has been the Maryland defense. The Terps are third in the conference in total defense, particularly stingy against the pass, leading the conference with 10 interceptions, and their opponents completion percentage (45.9%), yards allowed per attempt (6.2), yards allowed per game (163.6), and defensive pass efficiency (99.9) are second across the board to only Michigan. Yes, the Rutgers game helps, but they also held Nate Stanley to just 86 yards on 11-22 passing. Michigan State has been absolutely awful running the ball all year. Every single offensive line starter has missed some time, and L.J. Scott is only now returning. But the problems there began before the injuries. At times, even now without their top two wide receivers, Michigan State has had enough of a passing game to get by. Even without Brian Lewerke last week, Rocky Lombardi stepped in, and the passing game actually improved. Maryland isn't anything near Michigan up front, but the Wolverines were able to stymie Michigan State with just four guys, and their secondary gave the Spartan receivers no breathing room. Lewerke found no windows. Michigan State's passing attack is not predicated on a bunch of timing routes, and hitting windows, they have longer developing plays. This is probably the best secondary Michigan State has faced all season aside from Michigan, and if the Terps can force the same small windows, the Spartans offense will not move the ball. This really probably comes down to strength on strength. Maryland is picking up 6.8 ypc on the ground, best in the Big Ten. Michigan State is only allowing 3.2, second best, while allowing a league low 4 rushing touchdowns. If Maryland can stay ahead of the sticks, and use play action effectively, they should have just enough offense. If the Spartans front can win first down, and force Kasim Hill into some obvious passing downs, Michigan State should be in good field position all day. That's been the story in the short history as conference foes. In 2014, Michigan State held Maryland to 0.4 ypc, and C.J. Brown was forced to throw a career high 43 passes in a 37-15 loss. In 2015, Michigan State held Maryland to 2.9 ypc, and Perry Hills was forced to throw a career high 30 passes in a 24-7 loss. Last year, Michigan State held Maryland to 2.7 ypc, and Max Bortenschlager was forced to throw 25 passes in a snowstorm in a 17-7 loss. But in Maryland's lone win, in 2016, they ran for nearly 6 ypc, and had two backs go over 100 yards. As far as Xs and Os go, whoever wins that battle between Maryland's run game and Michigan State's run defense should win the game. But it's college football, and it's hard to ignore the emotions on Maryland's side coming into this game. Will they be galvanized or splintered? That might be the most important question.

MICHIGAN STATE 24, MARYLAND 21

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-5, 1-7) at Wisconsin Badgers (3-2, 5-3)

NOON - Madison, WI - BTN

The last time we saw saw Rutgers, they were, surprisingly, giving Northwestern a game. The last time we saw Wisconsin, they were, surprisingly, not. What Wisconsin fans may have taken from the game is a new appreciation of Alex Hornibrook. While Jack Coan certainly didn't play poorly, he didn't really add anything. Completed 65% of his passes, with no interceptions, but for only 5.1 ypa. People who have called Alex Hornibrook just a game manager, saw what a real game manager looks like. And they also saw just how much opposing defenses still respected the Wisconsin passing attack when Hornibrook was in, because without him, Northwestern locked in on Jonathan Taylor, and completely bottled him up. His 46 yards and 4.2 ypc were both season lows, and both would be career lows if not for the Big Ten Championship Game last year. Another weird trend is that Taylor is suddenly unable to find the end zone, and that he oddly had the same problem last year as the season wore on. Last year he ran for 11 touchdowns in the first 7 games, but only 2 over the final 7. This year he had 5 in the first two weeks, but only 3 in the six since, and all 3 came against Nebraska. He's been held out of the end zone in 5 of the past 6. Rutgers is like chicken soup for your football soul though. Forget the Northwestern game as being some sort of corner turned, that's just Northwestern being completely incapable of doing what you expect them to, good or bad. Rutgers still managed to pass for 2.1 ypa, and somehow allow Northwestern's anemic rushing attack to produce a 100 yard rushers. Since Larkin retired, their previous leading rusher was 36 yards. But, said rusher, Isaiah Bowser, followed that with another 100 yard rushing day, against these Badgers. Wisconsin has had some mild dips since Alvarez built them up, but it's been generally due to subpar quarterback play, or troubles on the back end. This is the first time I can honestly say Wisconsin looks overmatched at times in the trenches. Yes, Hornibrook was out, so Northwestern could key on the run. Most years, that wouldn't matter. This year the line can't hold off stacked boxes, and the defense is in the bottom 5 in the conference in both run defense and pass defense. Hornibrook is back this week, and it's much needed. Remember how dominant this Wisconsin team looked two weeks ago. Things get a whole lot tougher with trips to Happy Valley and West Lafayette to follow, but this is a program that continuously hammers the opponents they should hammer.

WISCONSIN 38, RUTGERS 10

#16 Iowa Hawkeyes (3-2, 6-2) at Purdue Boilermakers (3-2, 4-4)

3:30 - West Lafayette, IN - espn2

These two teams both had a ton of momentum at this time a week ago, and while trips to Happy Valley and East Lansing were daunting, wins were attainable, and could have really escalated the magnitude of this game. Instead Iowa missed an opportunity, and Purdue's offense never made the trip. So while nationally this game doesn't make the radar, I still think it's one of the more interesting offerings nationwide this week, aside from the few behemoth games. The computers still like both of these teams quite a bit, even if the pollsters don't. The Hawkeyes remain #12 in the composite computer rankings, right on the trail of #10 Florida and #11 Penn State for best 2 loss team. Likewise, Purdue hangs on at #40, which is one spot behind #39 Missouri for highest ranked 4 loss team, ahead of some 3 loss Power 5 teams, including Big Tenners Wisconsin, Northwestern and Maryland. While the offense needs to get going again, that feels more like a hiccup than an actual problem. Although the health of Rondale Moore is a legitimate concern at this point. Michigan State bottled him up, and it's no surprise that what followed was Purdue's worst offensive performance of the season. Yes, he had 11 catches, but for only 74 yards. His 6.7 ypc was his worst aside from the Eastern Michigan game, as were his 74 total yards scrimmage yards, a week after lighting up Ohio State for 194. It was also the only time other than the Eastern Michigan game he failed to record a 30 yard play. Sensing a pattern? Blough is good, Brohm knows offense, but this is still a program adding weapons, and right now if Moore isn't at his best, the offense struggles. Now there's a concern he might not play at all. But defensively Nick Holt needs to get the pressure dialed up. He had a chance against a freshman quarterback making his first career start last week, and the Boilermakers let him get way too comfortable. They totaled 1 sack and only 4 hurries against a struggling offensive line, and let a kid with a limited playbook, and down his top two receivers, work through his options enough to spread the ball around to 9 different receivers. If Rocky Lombardi can beat you with that kind of time, Nate Stanley will kill you. Last week changed once Penn State started getting pressure. Stanley is as good as there is in the conference in a clean pocket, which his offensive line typically provides, allowing a conference best 1.0 sacks per game. But that drops quickly if you get to him. Purdue will have to bring extra guys to do it, so it's on Stanley to beat the blitz. The pressure is also going to be on Purdue's tackles to do a lot better than they did last week. A big reason Blough struggled so much is because Michigan State consistently got pressure with 4 guys, so he was throwing hurried passes into 7 man coverages. Iowa is probably weaker in the middle of the line than Michigan State, but their edge rushers are better. Anthony Nelson and A.J. Espensa have combined for 13 sacks this season. Blough has struggled with holding the ball too long on third down. At least Michigan State's pressure he could see, Iowa's he won't, and they will be seeking some strip sacks. Purdue has looked like a different team at home, but Iowa looks to me like a better version of the Michigan State team that just proved to be a bad matchup for the Boilermakers. They struggle some to run, but have a strong passing game, with a much better quarterback this week. A defense that is elite up front and can both stop the run and get pressure with just four guys, allowing to drop 7 and force Blough to hit small windows. But Iowa also has a better secondary waiting back there. A bit better weather, and it's at home, so I think we'll see a touch more offense, but if Purdue couldn't beat Michigan State, I don't see them beating basically a better version of Michigan State.

IOWA 30, PURDUE 24

#4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-0) at Northwestern Wildcats (5-3)

7:15 - Evanston, IL - ESPN

I said in the preseason we were going to get into November, and realize we had a monumental non conference showdown. Then Notre Dame roared out of the gates, while Northwestern did their usual September thing, and this game faded from memory. Now Northwestern is coming on and suddenly this game feels really big again. A big part of that is that the failings this year at Florida State and USC mean that the two easiest games left for the Irish might be against the Seminoles and Trojans, while this weekend and the Yankee Stadium game against a ranked Syracuse game, might be the biggest obstacles between Notre Dame and their first ever College Football Playoff appearance. All of the Big Ten's eyes should be on this one and rooting hard for Northwestern. The national talk is always about the lopsided nature of the divisional split, and right now it's Northwestern atop the Big Ten West, with wins over Wisconsin and Purdue already in their back pocket. If Northwestern beats Iowa, they are going to Indianapolis. So just how hard will that talk ramp up if the Big Ten West produces a champ that went 0-3 non-conference. That could loom large for Michigan or Ohio State, looking to solidify a College Football Playoff spot in Indianapolis, but with a win over a team that went winless out of conference, would that give a 1 loss Oklahoma or West Virginia the margin to jump them? Basically the Big Ten really, really, really needs Northwestern to either (a) win this game or (b) not wind up in Indy. The Wildcats offense may be starting to pose a bit more of a challenge as they've actually found a running back. Now let's be clear about how far they have to go, but this was a rushing attack that went from bad to putrid after Jeremy Larkin's retirement. Salvation has come in the name of freshman Isaiah Bowser. No Wildcat back had even run for 40 yards since Larkin retired, now Bowser, after having 2 career carries prior, has put up games of 108 and 117 yards. How relieved must Clayton Thorson have been last week to have Bowser carry the ball 117 times. Yes, only 3.4 ypc. But this was an offense averaging well south of 2. It's also meant Thorson has only had to throw 64 total passes over the previous two games combined, after throwing that many times against Nebraska alone the week prior. If Notre Dame does get ahead, Thorson has shown no issue with throwing the Cats back into the game. Northwestern's quick passing attack should help negate the Irish's nasty pass rushing group, which sticks in my craw includes a pair of former Michigan State commits. Northwestern's defense does a good job maximizing its talent, which is not elite. However Notre Dame doesn't have quite the number of playmakers of some of Kelly's past offenses. They'll use three difference running backs to establish the ground game, with Dexter Williams, who was suspended for the Michigan game, being the best of the bunch. Starting tight end Alize Mack may miss the game with a concussion. Sophomore Cole Kmet looked surprisingly good coming in in reserve against Navy, for a guy with only 7 career catches prior. If he can put it together quickly, his 6'6" frame is a nightmare. He was the #3 TE recruit in the nation in 2017 for a reason. Ian Book has looked substantially better than Brandon Wimbush, but this may actually be the best defense he's faced to date, so staying on schedule is important. So is finishing drives. Northwestern has thrived on keeping opponents out of the end zone. They, along with Purdue, Michigan State and Maryland, are the only Big Ten schools allowing touchdowns on less than half of their opponents red zone trips. I think this will be tight all night with Notre Dame scoring a late touchdown to seal it. I'd like to say it's a tough road environment, but it will be packed with Chicago area Notre Dame alums, and just a ton of good ole Chicago Irish Catholics.

NOTRE DAME 31, NORTHWESTERN 20

***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***

#14 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-2, 6-2) at #5 Michigan Wolverines (5-0, 7-1)

3:45 - Ann Arbor, MI - ESPN

#revengetour has been the motto for Michigan all year, and there are two more stops left on it. While Ohio State and Michigan State are the two hurdles that were most frequently brought up, it was the loss in Happy Valley last year, and the manner in which it happened that may have stung the most. Michigan had poor quarterback play, and inconsistent line play, poor playcalling, and a myriad of offensive issues that cost them against Michigan State, Wisconsin and South Carolina. But Penn State was the one team that whipped them up and down the field, and most surprisingly toyed with their vaunted defense. Joe Moorehead is gone. Saquon Barkley is gone. Trace McSorley may or may not be hurt. The receivers are underperforming. The line has regressed. Maybe even moreso than the Wisconsin game, that turned into a blowout, and the Michigan State game, which was never in doubt, this one has all the making of a splattering. And yet... McSorley is is an easy guy to dislike as an opposing fan, but he has moxie, and he has pride. He'll also have to give a performance like he did against Ohio State for Penn State to have a prayer. He has been a shell of that guy since, although Michigan State and Iowa's defenses would be getting a lot more talk in a year where Michigan's wasn't playing like this. The question will be how Michigan matches up with Penn State's receivers. Juwan Johnson, who has been a colossal disappointment this year, and DeAndre Thompkins line up on the outside. Will Brown play them straight with Lavert Hill and David Long, and trust Josh Metellus to play with K.J. Hamler, the Michigan product who has been Penn State's best receiver? It would also help things if Ricky Slade worked his way back to healthy to compliment Miles Sanders, who has had to carry more of the load than expected. That goes both ways, as Karan Higdon has become even more of a workhorse than expcted. Higdon (23.8) and Sanders (17.4) are 1st and 3rd in carries per game in conference play. Much like Ricky Slade, where is Chris Evans? He was injured, returned against Wisconsin, but only tallied 8 total carries over those two games back. Granted one was a critical fumble that allowed Michigan State back into the game. Penn State's defense has been sneaky good, and they should be able to play Michigan pretty straight up. The Wolverines defense dominated against Michigan State, but the offense really struggled, and kept Michigan State in the game into the 4th quarter. The Nittany Lions defense is allowing only 4.9 ypp, 2nd in the conference only to Michigan, keyed by a pass defense that is allowing only 5.6 ypa, 2nd again to...yup, Michigan. They've also held opponents to just 52.2% completions, but have been susceptible to the big play. Shea Patterson runs enough to keep you honest, and the more comfortable he gets in the offense, the more he seems willing to do so. He was shut down last week in that area, but he showed off his wheels in Wisconsin's last home game. It's something to watch, but he'd rather go over the top to Peoples-Jones, which is Penn State's weakness. They can't let their safeties get caught up on some of those RPOs and get beat over the top. They match up well against the Wolverines offense, so they can't afford to throw it away in chunk plays. Michigan seems due for a B game after a pair of emotional wins, but they also had a bye week to rest up and get ready, while Penn State slugged it out with an Iowa team that left McSorley beat up. This has all the makings of a blowout, but I think Michigan is due for a bit of a fight, assuming McSorley is 100%. If not, it'll look a lot like 2016. It may anyway.

MICHIGAN 31, PENN STATE 23

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #1 on:** November 02, 2018, 12:23:48 PM »

Per our Power Rankings:

#3 Penn State at #1 Michigan
#10 Nebraska at #2 Ohio State
#4 Iowa at #8 Purdue
#5 Michigan State at #9 Maryland
#14 Rutgers at #7 Wisconsin
#11 Minnesota at #13 Illinois

Not the most exciting week with most of the games involving teams separated by at least four spots and only three games involving the better team on the road.

FearlessF · « **Reply #2 on:** November 02, 2018, 01:58:47 PM »

I'm pulling for some upsets!

Cincydawg · « **Reply #3 on:** November 02, 2018, 02:42:29 PM »

The SEC happens to have good matchups this weekend.

A&M at Auburn is interesting.
USCe at Ole Miss as well
Mizzou at Florida

Just in case the B1G games get boring.

GopherRock · « **Reply #4 on:** November 02, 2018, 04:45:38 PM »

^and a little dustup in Baton Rouge

ELA · « **Reply #5 on:** November 02, 2018, 05:36:26 PM »

Everything in but Minnesota-Illinois, may have time to put it up later, may not. Nobody may care

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Topic: ELA November 3 Breakdown

ELA

ELA November 3 Breakdown

medinabuckeye1

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ELA

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