B1G-E:
- 4-0/7-0 Michigan State, controls their own destiny
- 3-0/6-0 Michigan, controls their own destiny
- 3-0/5-1 Ohio State, controls their own destiny
- 2-1/5-1 Penn State, controls their own destiny
The Spartans are off this weekend while the Wolverines, Buckeyes, and Nittany Lions are playing teams tentatively ranked #10, #12, and #13 in our Power Rankings so we should head into the big Halloween Weekend match-ups at:
- 4-0/7-0 MSU
- 4-0/7-0 M
- 4-0/6-1 tOSU
- 3-1/6-1 PSU
Assuming we do, PSU will have the most at stake because they have the least margin for error. If they win out the loss to Iowa doesn't impact their B1GCG chances but if they lose again they'll need help and if they lose to MSU, M, or tOSU they'll need a LOT of help.
Assuming the favorites all win this weekend (tOSU over IU, PSU over IL, M over NU) and then PSU loses in Columbus on 10/30 the Nittany Lions would have two possible routes to the B1GCG but both are unlikely:
Possible route #1, tOSU loses three games:
Penn State would have to win out.
The next issue here is that at 4-2/7-2 the Nittany Lions would be two games behind the Buckeyes AND they'd lose a two-way tie with tOSU due to the H2H result. Ohio State losing three games gets around that problem but it requires that a tOSU team good enough to beat PSU is somehow also bad enough to lose three out of four to the two Michigan schools, Nebraska, and Purdue.
Even if all of that happened, the Nittany Lions would still need the M/MSU winner to lose a game. The problem is that it probably can't be to tOSU since the Nittany Lions already need the Buckeyes to go 1-3 so it would have to be to either Maryland or an Indiana school (IU for M, PU for MSU).
Possible route #2, PSU wins a three or four-way tie at 7-2 with the Buckeyes and one or both of the Michigan Schools:
Penn State would have to win out.
Next they would need tOSU to lose to both Michigan schools (a loss to UNL or PU instead doesn't work because that would be non-divisional).
Next they would need the M/MSU winner to lose another game (IU for M or PU for MSU).
This would create a two, three, or four-way tie at 7-2 between PSU some or all of the M/MSU winner, the M/MSU loser, and tOSU. Here is how each of those break down:
- Three way tie with tOSU and M: PSU wins based on divisional record. The H2H2H would be 1-1 so we drop to divisional record where PSU wins because their other loss was to Iowa while tOSU's and Michigan's were to MSU and IU respectively.
- Three way tie with tOSU and MSU: PSU wins based on H2H over MSU. First, tOSU is eliminated by divisional record then it reverts to H2H between PSU and MSU and the Nittany Lions win.
- Four way tie with tOSU, M, and MSU: PSU wins based on beating both Michigan schools H2H. First tOSU and the M/MSU loser would be eliminated based on their 1-2 H2H2H. Then PSU and the M/MSU winner would revert to H2H where PSU wins.
