Well, if they run the table, they get the autobid. So really is it one more loss, are they still ok. I think so. You can also include USC and Minnesota in that group
Iowa would be the only questionable one, simply because assuming they win out, then lose to Indiana or Ohio State in the CCG, then they are 11-2, but what's their best win? Depending on where things go from here, probably Minnesota, Northwestern or Nebraska?
If Nebraska gets to 11-2, it would mean 2 wins over the OSU, Indiana, Oregon group