Teams with 1st Loss Week 13:
none
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 13:
Georgia Tech
Teams with 3rd Loss Week 13:
Southern California
Houston
Western Kentucky
Teams with 1st Win Week 13:
none
Percent of Teams with 1st loss of the Season:
Week 0/1: 36.0% (49 of 136)
Week 2: 36.8% (32 of 87)
Week 3: 29.1% (16 of 55)
Week 4: 23.1% (9 of 39)
Week 5: 33.3% (10 of 30)
Week 6: 25% (5 of 20)
Week 7: 26.7% (4 of 15)
Week 8: 45.5% (5 of 11)
Week 9: 0% (0 of 6)
Week 10: 33.3% (2 of 6)
Week 11: 25.0% (1 of 4)
Week 12: 0% (0 of 3)
Week 13: 0% (0 of 3)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
2: No changes this week. Our remaining possible undefeated teams are: Ohio State/Indiana and Texas A&M.
There is only one remaining possible game between undefeated teams in the regular season and it is Ohio State vs. Indiana in the Big Ten Championship.
Week 13 Thoughts:
-For a lot of teams, we are to their final game of the year. College football goes fast.
-Before looking at conferences, let's look at last weeks ratings for playoff purposes. The bottom two teams in the playoff were from the ACC and American and outside the top 12. That meant outside of that, we were looking at the top 10 teams making it. The last few at large before last week were Oregon, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Alabama in that order. The first three out were BYU, Utah, and Miami (FL) in that order. For someone else to get in, someone else would have to be out.
-In the Big Ten, Oregon beat USC which leaves the ducks with a solid win and almost certainly in the playoff with a win against Washington next week. USC is definitely out. Meanwhile, Michigan beat Maryland to stay alive. A year ago, a 10-2 Michigan with a win over Ohio State would probably have been in, but I lean against that this year unless we get an upset or two ahead of them (very possible). On the flip side, Oregon losing to Washington might leave the Big Ten with 2 this year. Ohio State and Indiana are probably safe no matter what and both probably gets byes to the quarterfinal bowls with wins. For the Big Ten Championship, Indiana is in with a win over rival Purdue and Ohio State over Michigan. Oregon is in if they win and Michigan beats Ohio State. Michigan would need to win and have Oregon or Indiana lose.
-The Big 12 is interesting. BYU won at Cincinnati while Texas Tech was off. Those two are the last two one loss teams in the conference and will face off if they both win again this week. Utah, after a big late comeback vs. Kansas State and Arizona State can also still make the championship, but they need help. Arizona State needs to win and have BYU lose. Utah needs to win, have Texas Tech lose, but have BYU and Arizona State win to set-up the correct tiebreaker. Texas Tech, for their part, is playing for a home date and potentially a bye to the quarterfinal bowls.
The big question for those inside and outside the Big 12 is what happens if BYU wins the championship over Texas Tech without any other upsets across the country. I think most people are penciling in one from the Big 12 if the other tops teams in the country all win. That may be right and I might be focusing too much on this, but last year the committee showed reluctance (likely based on instructions) to let the championship games hurt teams (although they could help). Right now, BYU is just outside the playoff bubble and without upsets elsewhere likely remains that way without winning the Big 12. On the other hand though, Texas Tech was #5 last week and will go into the Big 12 Championship around there if they win this week. Would the committee lower them down to #11 after a loss to BYU in the championship? If not, and if the rest of the top teams win (admittedly unlikely), the committee will have a hard decision to make. If you leave in Texas Tech, you might have to put out one someone like Alabama, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, or Oregon even if they don't lose. All that said, Texas Tech will be favored to win the Big 12 and someone else will more than likely lose making this all mute.
Along those lines, let's look at Notre Dame. The Irish had a 21-0 lead over Syracuse this week without an offensive yard. Winning big likely keeps them in OK position, but I wouldn't let up in the last game. Beyond the two team Big 12 scenario, they do not want to be grouped into a similar class by the committee as Miami because then the head to head might well matter more (people kind of missed it, but it did somewhat happen like that in 2014 with Baylor and TCU). I think the Irish are pretty safe, but I would not want to leave any question given a fairly strong bubble right now. Beyond that, if they can make #8, they will get a home game again.
That brings us to the SEC. There weren't as many big games in what is always a slower week for the conference, but Oklahoma won to keep themselves in what looks like decent playoff position. Vanderbilt has two losses, but given a weaker strength of schedule, is likely out of playoff running unless we get a lot of chaos next week (quite possible). That leaves us with 5 teams with strong chances in Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M. Alabama and Oklahoma for sure have to win this week to keep their playoff hopes going. A&M can pretty certainly afford a loss. I would lean to Ole Miss and Georgia being fine with one, but if you somehow you do get two in from the Big 12 or maybe a Michigan or Vanderbilt or someone pushes their way into the conversation there would be a small chance a loss would put them out.
For the SEC Championship, Texas A&M is in with a win, but out with a loss. Alabama is in with a win. Georgia needs one of those two to lose and Ole Miss needs both Alabama and Texas A&M to lose.
The ACC just can't stay stable at the top. Georgia Tech lost their 2nd game of the year and now needs a lot of help to make the ACC Championship. Virginia and SMU control their destiny. Pitt can get in if they beat Miami and one of the other two lose. Miami might make it if they beat Pitt and one of Virginia or SMU win. There seems to be some scenarios to even give this still to Duke or Georgia Tech, but we are probably talking two of the current 1 conference loss teams in. Miami does stand a chance at an at large, but needs some help to get it. They want some upsets in the SEC and a Utah loss wouldn't hurt.
Group of 5 Playoff spot:
-Western Kentucky kept it close against LSU, but lost 13-0. That was the one big wildcard of the year left, although I didn't think it would have been enough even if they won.
-In the Sun Belt, James Madison beat Washington State. They keep winning now, but I think their strength of schedule is going to get them. They likely need a decent bit of chaos in the American this week and next to get pushed over the top, but it is not looking likely.
-The Mountain West is in a similar spot, but likely also needs James Madison losing. Regardless, San Diego State continues to lead the conference with 1 conference loss.
-In the MAC, Western Michigan goes into the final week of the season the lone 6-1 conference team. There are still four 5-2 teams behind them.
-Tulane and North Texas seem to control their destiny in the American and will be big favorites this week. Either one of them would likely take the playoff spot if they win the last two. Should either stumble this week Navy and South Florida could conceivably make it in. Both would also be strong contenders, but that might give others a chance. James Madison or a Mountain West champ needs at least one of Tulane or North Texas to lose this week.
Note: I was the biggest fan of getting rid of division and still am. I will say though that is is a lot harder even finding out the tiebreakers now than before (I found more than one conflicting articles around).
Week 14 Thoughts:
-We have two games involving two teams with 2 or fewer losses.
Undefeated Ohio State at 2-loss Michigan: Michigan has had Ohio State's number the past few years even when the Buckeyes were better. Michigan has issues now, but are better than the team that shocked OSU last year. Michigan could get in the Big Ten Championship with a win here and an Oregon or Indiana loss.
1-loss Georgia at 2-loss Georgia Tech (Friday): Georgia likely can afford a loss here and Georgia Tech likely is not going to get enough enough with a win, but this was a 7 overtime game or so last year and the playoff committee would have to debate what to do with both teams if Georgia Tech wins. Georgia is going for a bye to the quarterfinal bowls with a win.
Undefeated Texas A&M at Texas (Friday): Texas can play spoiler this year. If they win as a small underdog, the Aggies are not going to Atlanta and their playoff bye is likely gone.
Undefeated Indiana at Purdue: Indiana is in the Big Ten Championship with a win and likely playing for a bye.
Bowling Green at winless UMass (Tuesday): This is UMass's last chance at a win. They play 3-8 Bowling Green, but are still over 2 touchdown underdogs.
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan (Tuesday): Win and Western Michigan is in the MAC Championship.
2-loss Navy at Memphis: Navy needs help, but can still make the American Championship if they win this.
1-loss Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Friday): Ole Miss is in the playoff with a bye if they win. They probably still make it with a loss, but would drop and have to sweat out other results at least a little. Mississippi State needs this for bowl eligibility. Ole Miss is a bit under a touchdown favorite.
2-loss Utah at Kansas (Friday): With some help, Utah could make the Big 12 Championship. There is also a chance, with some upsets, they could get the at large for the playoff. Both are unlikely even with a win, but not out of the question. Winning big might help.
Iowa at Nebraska (Friday): Iowa on Black Friday is a long running tradition. Both wanted a bit more, but a win will leave the winner with 8 wins.
Ohio at Buffalo (Friday): Ohio might be in MAC Championship with a win, but probably not (down to tiebreakers).
2-loss San Diego State at New Mexico (Friday): The winner is in the Mountain West Championship.
Temple at 1-loss North Texas (Friday): If you don't want the American in the playoff, root for Temple, but it is a long shot.
Boise State at Utah State (Friday): Can Boise State play for one more Mountain West Championship? They have to win here to maybe get a chance (I would lean to yes).
Arizona at Arizona State (Friday): Arizona State can still make the Big 12 Championship with upsets. Utah needs Arizona State to lose.
2-loss Miami (FL) at Pitt: The loser is out of the ACC race. The winner will need some help (Pitt will need less though).
Toledo at Central Michigan: A battle of two loss teams in the MAC. The loser is out of the MAC race. The winner needs tiebreaker help (lot of possibilities given all the two loss teams).
UCF at 1-loss BYU: BYU is a huge favorite, but they need this game to lock up their Big 12 Championship appearance so no slip ups.
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State: Winner hosts the Conference USA Championship Game.
1-loss Oregon at Washington: Oregon is in the playoff with a win and in the Big Ten Championship too if Michigan beats Ohio State too. With a loss though, the Big Ten might be reduced to two teams in. Oregon should host with a win. Washington would love to push Oregon out. Oregon is a 6.5 point favorite.
LSU at 2-loss Oklahoma: Oklahoma looks great for the playoff with a win and stands a decent chance of having a home game.
2-loss Vanderbilt at Tennessee: Vanderbilt might jump up a bit with a win here. I don't think they can jump enough without upsets, but they might well get some. Tennessee has had a bit of a disappointing season, but are still strong and still small favorites here.
Wisconsin at Minnesota: The battle for the greatest trophy in sports. Minnesota has had the better year, but all of a sudden the last two weeks, Wisconsin has seemed like a much better team.
Penn State at Rutgers: This is for bowl eligibility for both. Penn State seems to have rebounded from earlier season issues and are decent favorites.
Wake Forest at Duke: There is theoretically still a scenario to put Duke in the ACC title. I don't think it would happen, but they would need to win this game first.
Kennesaw State at Liberty: Kennesaw State clinches a spot in the Conference USA Championship with a win. They are 2.5 point favorites.
Troy at Southern Miss: The winner is in the Sun Belt Championship.
1-loss James Madison at Coastal Carolina: James Madison probably will not make the playoff regardless, but winning big the rest of the way would help.
Florida State at Florida: A collective 8-14. Florida State is playing for a bowl game, but a small underdog.
Oregon State at Washington State: The end of the PAC-2 era. Oregon State won the game earlier in the season. Washington State is the big favorite this time.
Virginia Tech at 2-loss Virginia: Virginia is the ACC Championship with a win.
2-loss Alabama at Auburn: The Iron Bowl has high stakes. Auburn wants to upset their biggest rival and go bowling. Alabama needs this for the playoff and the SEC Championship Game. Alabama is a bit under a touchdown favorite.
Rice at South Florida: There would have to be some extreme upsets to put South Florida in, but they are still technically alive.
Charlotte at 2-loss Tulane: Tulane is in the American Championship with a win. They are huge favorites.
SMU at Cal: SMU is in the American Championship in both its first two years in conference with a win. They are about two touchdown favorites.
2-loss UNLV at Nevada: Beating silver state rival Nevada would be the first step to getting UNLV in the Mountain West Championship. They would need some help elsewhere to get the tiebreakers right.
2-loss Notre Dame at Stanford: The Irish are likely in with a win. They are hoping for a home game the 1st round so winning big and a bit of help might do wonders.
Wyoming at Hawaii: Besides Army-Navy in two weeks, this is the last non-championship regular season game of the year.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: Big Ten: 2, SEC: 1, total: 3
Texas A&M
Indiana
Ohio State
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 0, American: 1, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 1, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, total: 7
Georgia
James Madison
Oregon
North Texas
Mississippi
Texas Tech
Brigham Young
2-loss Teams: ACC: 3, American: 2, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 0, Mountain West: 2, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 0, independents: 1, total: 13
Virginia
Miami (Fl)
Navy
Tulane
Utah
Michigan
San Diego State
UNLV
Alabama
Oklahoma
Vanderbilt
Notre Dame
Georgia Tech
Remaining Winless Teams: MAC:1, total: 1
Massachusetts
