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Topic: B1G divisional races after week 8

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medinabuckeye1

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B1G divisional races after week 8
« on: October 25, 2021, 12:25:20 PM »
B1G-E

  • 4-0/7-0 Michigan, controls their own destiny
  • 4-0/7-0 Michigan State, controls their own destiny
  • 4-0/6-1 Ohio State, controls their own destiny
  • 2-2/5-2 Penn State, needs a little help but not as much as you might think.  Both losses were non-divisional (IA, IL) so they would win any tie at 7-2.  If they were to win out that would give M, MSU, and tOSU each one loss plus all three have to play each other so only one of them could end up 8-1.  
  • 1-3/4-3 Maryland, effectively out of the race.  In theory they have a mathematical chance but not really.  
  • 0-4/3-4 Rutgers, practically eliminated, might be mathematically eliminated.  
  • 0-4/2-5 Indiana, see Rutgers.  

B1G-W:
  • 3-1/6-1 Iowa, controls their own destiny
  • 3-1/5-2 Minnesota, controls their own destiny
  • 2-2/4-3 Wisconsin, controls their own destiny
  • 2-2/4-3 Purdue, needs a LOT of help because their two losses are to teams tied with or ahead of them in the standings
  • 1-3/3-4 Northwestern, effectively out of the race.  
  • 1-4/3-5 Nebraska, practically eliminated.  

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G divisional races after week 8
« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2021, 12:43:56 PM »
Obviously this weekend will tell us a lot.  

Starting in the East:  
Michigan/Michigan State:
The winner maintains control of their own destiny while the loser needs serious help.  The loser could only make it to Indy if the winner lost twice or by winning a convoluted multi-team tie at 8-1.  The only potential three way tie at 8-1 is M/MSU/tOSU which would happen if the three split (1-1) against each other and won all the rest of their games.  In a three-team tie the tiebreakers are as follows:

  • H2H2H, in this case tied at 1-1.  
  • Divisional record, in this case tied at 5-1.  
  • Record against the next best team in the division, then the next, etc.  In this case tied as all three beat all the others.  
  • Record against all common conference opponents.  In this case tied.  
  • Cumulative league record of non-divisional opponents.  THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE DECISIVE.  
  • Record against the best team(s) in the other division.  In this case it applies even if the number of games is not even and since this example assumes that all three go 3-0 against B1G-W opponents this would go to whichever team played the best B1G-W team.  
  • Overall record.  This would knock tOSU out.  
  • Random draw.  


Ohio State/Penn State:
Ohio State would control their own destiny EVEN with a loss.  Penn State has basically no margin for error and is effectively out of the B1GCG race with a loss.  

Moving on to the West:
Iowa/Wisconsin: 
The winner maintains control of their own destiny, the loser needs help and if that loser is Wisconsin they need a LOT of help.  Wisconsin would be effectively eliminated with a loss but Iowa would still be in the race even after losing.  The problem for Iowa is that they would need somebody to knock off Wisconsin and the Badgers (once this game is done) will have already played all of their toughest games.  
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LittlePig

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Re: B1G divisional races after week 8
« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2021, 03:44:53 PM »
I agree that MD and NW are effectively out of it,  but both are interesting from a mathematical perspective all that needs to happen for them to pull off a division championship.

For example NW finishes with MInn, Iowa, Wisc, Pur and ILL.  So if NW wins all 5, they finish 6-3.  Meanwhile Minn, Iowa get a 2nd loss, Purdue and Wisc get a 3rd loss, ILL gets a 4th loss.  All to NW.

NW's 3 losses are to MSU, Mich and Neb.  Neb already has a 4th loss.  So NW could win any West division tiebreaker involving teams with 3 losses.

Also Iowa and Minn will play each other.

So NW just needs the winner of the Iowa/Minn game to lose once more in addition to losing to NW, and NW then controls its own destiny.  Whew!  Its that simple.

I have a hunch its similar for MD and ILL too.
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847badgerfan

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Re: B1G divisional races after week 8
« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2021, 04:07:21 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 25, 2021, 12:25:20 PM
B1G-E

  • 4-0/7-0 Michigan, controls their own destiny
  • 4-0/7-0 Michigan State, controls their own destiny
  • 4-0/6-1 Ohio State, controls their own destiny
  • 2-2/5-2 Penn State, needs a little help but not as much as you might think.  Both losses were non-divisional (IA, IL) so they would win any tie at 7-2.  If they were to win out that would give M, MSU, and tOSU each one loss plus all three have to play each other so only one of them could end up 8-1. 
  • 1-3/4-3 Maryland, effectively out of the race.  In theory they have a mathematical chance but not really. 
  • 0-4/3-4 Rutgers, practically eliminated, might be mathematically eliminated. 
  • 0-4/2-5 Indiana, see Rutgers. 

B1G-W:
  • 3-1/6-1 Iowa, controls their own destiny
  • 3-1/5-2 Minnesota, controls their own destiny
  • 2-2/4-3 Wisconsin, controls their own destiny
  • 2-2/4-3 Purdue, needs a LOT of help because their two losses are to teams tied with or ahead of them in the standings
  • 1-3/3-4 Northwestern, effectively out of the race. 
  • 1-4/3-5 Nebraska, practically eliminated. 


Thoughts on Illinois?
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U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G divisional races after week 8
« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2021, 05:46:40 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 25, 2021, 04:07:21 PM
Thoughts on Illinois?
Oops I left them out.  I think they are effectively out like the other 3+ loss teams.  They'd need all kinds of help even if they won out.  
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Benthere2

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Re: B1G divisional races after week 8
« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2021, 07:04:18 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 25, 2021, 12:25:20 PM
B1G-E

  • 4-0/7-0 Michigan, controls their own destiny
  • 4-0/7-0 Michigan State, controls their own destiny
  • 4-0/6-1 Ohio State, controls their own destiny
  • 2-2/5-2 Penn State, needs a little help but not as much as you might think.  Both losses were non-divisional (IA, IL) so they would win any tie at 7-2.  If they were to win out that would give M, MSU, and tOSU each one loss plus all three have to play each other so only one of them could end up 8-1. 
  • 1-3/4-3 Maryland, effectively out of the race.  In theory they have a mathematical chance but not really. 
  • 0-4/3-4 Rutgers, practically eliminated, might be mathematically eliminated. 
  • 0-4/2-5 Indiana, see Rutgers. 

B1G-W:
  • 3-1/6-1 Iowa, controls their own destiny
  • 3-1/5-2 Minnesota, controls their own destiny
  • 2-2/4-3 Wisconsin, controls their own destiny
  • 2-2/4-3 Purdue, needs a LOT of help because their two losses are to teams tied with or ahead of them in the standings
  • 1-3/3-4 Northwestern, effectively out of the race. 
  • 1-4/3-5 Nebraska, practically eliminated. 


a lot of things will sort out after this weekend 
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