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Topic: Big Ten East v West
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Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #28 on:** September 28, 2021, 01:28:58 PM »

The B1G West looks horrible right now, save Iowa.

The B1G East looks quite a bit better on paper, save Indiana.

FearlessF · « **Reply #29 on:** September 28, 2021, 03:57:57 PM »

it's early

LittlePig · « **Reply #30 on:** September 28, 2021, 05:04:39 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 08, 2021, 05:05:25 PM

The bigger the conferences get the less I agree with you here. Back when the Big Ten actually had 10 members and each team played eight of the other nine each year I agree, schedule didn't make much difference. Miss the worst team, go 5-3, miss the best team, go 6-2. Now . . .

For a middling team schedule can be pretty big. Play the best three teams in the other division, go 3-6; play the worst three teams in the other division, go 6-3. That is a MUCH bigger difference.

The SEC is about to go to 16 teams. If they stick with their eight game schedule then each team will only be playing half of the teams in the league each year. That will make it impossible to just say "SEC schedule" because there will be an enormous difference each year between the strongest and the weakest "SEC schedule".

But you are discounting the odds that an average team will win at least 1 game against the 3 best teams and the odds an average team will lose at least one game against the 3 worst teams.

Lets say the average team has an 80% chance of winning each game against the 3 worst teams. The odds of winning all 3 games are then 0.8 x 0.8x 0.8 = 51%. Odds of going 2-1 or worse is 49%

And thats worst case scenario. But more likely an easy schedule involves missing the top 2 teams, playing an average team and 2 bad teams. The odds of going 3-0 are 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.5 = 28%.

Odds are better in many cases an average team goes 2-1 with an easy schedule and 1-2 with a hard schedule. Final result an easy schedule turns an average 7-5 team into an 8-4 team

Abba · « **Reply #31 on:** September 28, 2021, 09:47:33 PM »

I bet Nebraska is going to be a very tough out for Michigan, and really everyone in the Big Ten. They are eventually gonna play a clean game and pull an upset.

LittlePig · « **Reply #32 on:** September 29, 2021, 05:48:40 AM »

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 28, 2021, 01:28:58 PM

The B1G West looks horrible right now, save Iowa.

The B1G East looks quite a bit better on paper, save Indiana.

The Big Ten West better get it turned around otherwise this will be the worst performance by a Big Ten division ever.

It could also be the first time in history a division winner has more than 2 losses in a season unless 1 of the West teams goes 6-0 inside its division.

But we have been here before, and then a team like Northwestern comes out of nowhere and finishes 8-1 in conference. There may still be a team that has that secret potential to develop into a good team by seasons end (Purdue maybe?).

But if nobody steps for the West, its going to get ugly.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #33 on:** September 29, 2021, 11:43:03 AM »

Quote from: LittlePig on September 28, 2021, 05:04:39 PM

But you are discounting the odds that an average team will win at least 1 game against the 3 best teams and the odds an average team will lose at least one game against the 3 worst teams.

Lets say the average team has an 80% chance of winning each game against the 3 worst teams. The odds of winning all 3 games are then 0.8 x 0.8x 0.8 = 51%. Odds of going 2-1 or worse is 49%

And thats worst case scenario. But more likely an easy schedule involves missing the top 2 teams, playing an average team and 2 bad teams. The odds of going 3-0 are 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.5 = 28%.

Odds are better in many cases an average team goes 2-1 with an easy schedule and 1-2 with a hard schedule. Final result an easy schedule turns an average 7-5 team into an 8-4 team

I don't disagree, but when the team in question goes 2-1 against the bottom three or 1-2 against the top three we don't really care. It only becomes an issue when the team in question goes 3-0 against the bottom three or 0-3 against the top three.

I'll use this year's Iowa team as an example:
Suppose they went 3-0 OOC, 5-1 in their division and beat the worst three teams in the B1G-E (IU, RU, UMD per current Power Rankings). They'd be 11-1 and some people would be talking CFP. It matters because they went 3-0 against the worst three teams in the B1G-E. Had they gone 2-1 then they'd be 10-2 and we wouldn't really be talking about them.

Conversely, suppose they went 3-0 OOC, 5-1 in their division, and lost to the three best teams in the B1G-E (PSU, tOSU, and M per current Power Rankings). They'd only be 8-4. Schedule matters because they'd be very good for an 8-4 team. They'd probably be the best team in the B1G-W although they'd be unlikely to win it at 5-4. It matters because they went 0-3 against the best three teams in the B1G-E. Had they gone 1-2 then they'd be 9-3 and their record would align much more closely with their team.

LittlePig · « **Reply #34 on:** September 29, 2021, 02:05:11 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 29, 2021, 11:43:03 AM

I don't disagree, but when the team in question goes 2-1 against the bottom three or 1-2 against the top three we don't really care. It only becomes an issue when the team in question goes 3-0 against the bottom three or 0-3 against the top three.

I'll use this year's Iowa team as an example:
Suppose they went 3-0 OOC, 5-1 in their division and beat the worst three teams in the B1G-E (IU, RU, UMD per current Power Rankings). They'd be 11-1 and some people would be talking CFP. It matters because they went 3-0 against the worst three teams in the B1G-E. Had they gone 2-1 then they'd be 10-2 and we wouldn't really be talking about them.

Conversely, suppose they went 3-0 OOC, 5-1 in their division, and lost to the three best teams in the B1G-E (PSU, tOSU, and M per current Power Rankings). They'd only be 8-4. Schedule matters because they'd be very good for an 8-4 team. They'd probably be the best team in the B1G-W although they'd be unlikely to win it at 5-4. It matters because they went 0-3 against the best three teams in the B1G-E. Had they gone 1-2 then they'd be 9-3 and their record would align much more closely with their team.

Fair enough, I get your point now, but we are still talking rare circumstances. I challenge you to find just 1 example where a team went 0-3 outside their division and 5-1 or 6-0 inside their division.

The closest example I can think of is the year Wisconsin went 1-2 outside the division and 6-0 inside the division. And Wisconsin still won their division.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #35 on:** September 29, 2021, 04:51:12 PM »

Quote from: LittlePig on September 29, 2021, 02:05:11 PM

Fair enough, I get your point now, but we are still talking rare circumstances. I challenge you to find just 1 example where a team went 0-3 outside their division and 5-1 or 6-0 inside their division.

The closest example I can think of is the year Wisconsin went 1-2 outside the division and 6-0 inside the division. And Wisconsin still won their division.

I'm not going to search for it and I'll concede that it might not exist . . . yet. However, as we progress further and further from the old days where each team in the nine-member ACC played all the others and each team in the 10-member BigTen and SEC played all but one of the others the phrases "BigTen/Big11Ten/B1G schedule", "ACC schedule", and "SEC schedule" become less meaningful.

Years ago you pretty much knew who those teams played without having to look it up because they played almost everybody. When the SEC adds OU and UT to get to 16 members then plays an eight-game schedule my position is that the phrase "SEC schedule" will be nearly meaningless. Each of the 16 teams will be playing barely over half of the other teams. There will be years in which a specific SEC team plays a brutal schedule that includes nearly all of the best teams and other years in which a specific SEC team gets off pretty lightly because they manage to duck nearly all of the best teams.

For a more current example, here is my usual schedule/performance chart:

As you can see, I've bolded the crossover games and put them in boxes. Penn State has the toughest schedule in the league because they play in the tougher division AND they play the two toughest teams in the other division. Conversely, Iowa plays in the weaker division and two of their three cross-over games are against two of the three weakest teams in the other division. Now look at the impact:

Against the top-5 teams in the league:

Penn State has four games, three on the road.
Iowa has one game, at home.

Against the top-9 teams in the league:

Penn State has eight games, five on the road.
Iowa has four games, two on the road.

Against the bottom-5 teams in the league:

Penn State has one home game.
Iowa has five games, two on the road.

Penn State and Iowa appear to be very good teams so lets ignore HFA (for the sake of this example only) and assume that they are 50/50 against the top-5, 75% against the middle-four, and 80% against the bottom-5:
Iowa:

ONE game against the top-5: 0.5-0.5
three games against the middle-4: 2.25-0.75
FIVE games against the bottom-5: 4-1
Total: 6.75-2.25

Penn State:

FOUR games against the top-5: 2-2
four games against the middle-4, 3-1
ONE game against the bottom-5: 0.8-0.2
Total: 5.8-3.2

That is only about a one-game difference but if they both avoid upsets against the bottom feeders it moves to:

7.75-1.25 Iowa
6-3 Penn State

Now it is almost a two-game difference and Iowa at 7-2 or 8-1 is at least a contender for the B1GCG while PSU at 6-3 is probably an also-ran.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #36 on:** October 06, 2021, 12:38:09 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 28, 2021, 01:10:56 PM

Updated for 10/1-2 games. The B1G-E now holds a 6-2 lead on these eight games (with current B1G Power Rankings):
#3 PSU won at #7 UW, 1-0 B1G-E
#2 tOSU won at #10 MN, 2-0 B1G-E
#1 Iowa won vs #11 IU, 2-1 B1G-E
#5 MSU won vs #6 UNL, 3-1 B1G-E
#5 MSU won at #14 NU, 4-1 B1G-E
#8 UMD won at #13 IL, 5-1 B1G-E
#1 Iowa won at #8 UMD, 5-2 B1G-E
#4 M won at #7 UW, 6-2 B1G-E

And the following 14 games remain (with current B1G Power Ranking):
#3 PSU at #1 Iowa on 10/9
#4 M at #6 UNL on 10/9
#9 RU at #14 NU on 10/16
#3 PSU vs #13 IL on 10/23
#4 M vs #14 NU on 10/23
#8 UMD at #10 MN on 10/23
#9 RU at #13 IL on 10/30
#2 tOSU at #6 UNL on 11/6
#5 MSU at #12 PU on 11/6
#7 UW at #9 RU on 11/6
#2 tOSU vs #12 PU on 11/13
#11 IU vs #10 MN on 11/20
#11 IU at #12 PU on 11/27
B1GCG

See update above, we have now played more than 1/3 of these games.

LittlePig · « **Reply #37 on:** October 06, 2021, 01:33:56 PM »

Ugh, if current power rankings hold, this projects out to the West finishing 6-16 this year. If the Big Ten ends up scrapping the divisions after this year, this would be a horrible way for the West to go out.

But if the current power rankings hold, then at least the West will win the CCG for the first time, with Iowa beating OSU. I guess I will believe that when I see it, but that may be a way to remove some of the sting from the absolute atrocious performance by the West in 2021.

FearlessF · « **Reply #38 on:** October 06, 2021, 01:47:55 PM »

current power rankings have never held from week 6

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #39 on:** October 06, 2021, 02:49:11 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on October 06, 2021, 01:47:55 PM

current power rankings have never held from week 6

This is true but after a certain extent it is also somewhat misleading. If you look at the first two match-ups (3vs1 and 4vs6) it is not all that unlikely that we are wrong in our rankings and #3 and #6 are actually better than #1 and #4. However the third is #9 vs #14 where it is strongly likely that #9 is actually better than #14 and the next two after that are even more extreme:

#3 PSU vs #13 IL on 10/23
#4 M vs #14 NU on 10/23

Upsets are always possible but our rankings can't possibly be so far off that Illinois and Northwestern are actually superior to Penn State and Michigan.

Looking at the 14 remaining match-ups:

W is two spots better and at home.
E is 2 spots better but on the road.
E is 5 spots better but on the road.
E is 10 spots better and at home.
E is 10 spots better and at home.
E is 2 spots better but on the road.
E is 4 spots better but on the road.
E is 4 spots better but on the road.
E is 7 spots better but on the road.
W is 2 spots better but on the road.
E is 10 spots better and at home.
W is 1 spot better but on the road.
E is 1 spot better but on the road.
W is 1 spot better at a neutral site.

FearlessF · « **Reply #40 on:** October 07, 2021, 09:09:03 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 06, 2021, 02:49:11 PM

Upsets are always possible but our rankings can't possibly be so far off that Illinois and Northwestern are actually superior to Penn State and Michigan.

I'll certainly agree with this
just hoping Nebraska can upset Michigan and prove that bit of our ranking wrong.......
for one night in Lincoln

ELA · « **Reply #41 on:** October 07, 2021, 01:42:01 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on October 06, 2021, 01:47:55 PM

current power rankings have never held from week 6

Probably pretty close last year.

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Topic: Big Ten East v West

Brutus Buckeye

Re: Big Ten East v West

FearlessF

Re: Big Ten East v West

LittlePig

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Abba

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LittlePig

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medinabuckeye1

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LittlePig

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medinabuckeye1

Re: Big Ten East v West

medinabuckeye1

Re: Big Ten East v West

LittlePig

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FearlessF

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medinabuckeye1

Re: Big Ten East v West

FearlessF

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ELA

Re: Big Ten East v West