Based on probability, an 8 team playoff would often crown a team that wasn't the best team involved. I think it would hurt the 2-3 truly elite teams each season.
Maybe, but
@OrangeAfroMan makes a good point, compared to what? Pre-playoff and especially pre-BCS there were a TON of truly elite teams that missed out on an NC because they had their bad day at the wrong time.
Lets look at 1973. Here is the pre-bowl AP Poll top-8 (just assuming for simplicity that the CFP rankings would be the same):
- 11-0 Bama
- 10-0-1 Oklahoma (tied #7 USC)
- 10-0 Notre Dame
- 9-0-1 Ohio State (tied #5 M)
- 10-0-1 Michigan (tied #4 tOSU)
- 11-0 Penn State
- 9-1-1 USC (lost to #3 ND, tied #2 OU)
- 8-2 Texas (lost to #2 OU and nr Miami, FL)
Assume for the sake of argument that I am right and that tOSU and Michigan were the best two teams that year. In the pre-CFP format both were deprived of an NC by their tie but in a four-team CFP, the Buckeyes would get a shot and in an 8-team playoff both would get a shot. In the actual timeline really only #1 Bama and #3 Notre Dame had a shot. They played each other in the Sugar Bowl. #2 Oklahoma didn't play a bowl (probation?). #4 tOSU played #7 USC (who was MUCH better than their record)* and won big (42-21) but it wasn't enough to pass the winner of the two undefeated teams ahead of them no matter what. #5 Michigan didn't bowl at all (league Rose Bowl only rule still in effect). #6 Penn State beat #13 LSU in the Orange Bowl but that only got them past Michigan who didn't play. #7 USC lost and dropped to #8. #8 Texas lost to #12 Nebraska in the Cotton Bowl and dropped to #14.
*USC in 1973:
This schedule is unreal. They finished 9-2-1. The three non-wins:
- A nine point loss to final #1 Notre Dame in South Bend
- A 21 point loss to final #2 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl
- A tie with final #3 Oklahoma at home.
They also beat final #12 UCLA. 9-2-1 really isn't bad when you played the top-3 teams in the final rankings. My assertion that tOSU was the best team that year is based largely on using USC as a barometer. Ohio State beat them much more soundly than Notre Dame and did it in SoCal while Notre Dame did it at home. I do realize, however, that the transitive property is extremely limited wrt CFB so who knows.
Big Ten Rose Bowl only Rule:
I think the rule was intended to maximize interest in the Rose Bowl but especially when it was combined with the no-repeat rule which was dropped around this time it really deprived some GREAT league teams of any bowl at all. Then, starting in 1969 with Bo's arrival in Ann Arbor the Buckeyes and Wolverines just flat dominated the league and the loser got no bowl until the rule was dropped for the 1975 season largely due to what had happened in 1973. Briefly, in 1973 the Buckeyes and Wolverines tied and the league AD's had to vote on who to send. Ohio State won the vote. I'd argue it was the right decision because Ohio State was the better team but I know that Bo was still bitter over it to his dying day.
Starting with Bo's arrival in 1969:
- 1969 tOSU and M tied for the league title, M went based on their H2H win and also the no-repeat rule because tOSU had gone the year before. Ohio State was 8-1 and #4 and got no bowl.
- 1970 tOSU won outright and went to the Rose Bowl. Michigan was 9-1 and #7 and got no bowl.
- 1971 M won outright and went to the Rose Bowl.
- 1972 tOSU and M tied for the league title, tOSU went based on their H2H win (and possibly also the no-repeat rule, not sure if it had been deleted yet). Michigan was 10-1 and #8 and got no bowl.
- 1973 tOSU and M tied for the league title, tOSU went based on vote of the AD's because there was no H2H winner. Michigan was 10-0-1 and #5 and got no bowl.
- 1974 tOSU and M tieid for the league title, tOSU went based on their H2H win (no more no-repeat rule). Michigan was 10-1 and #4 and got no bowl.
The Rose Bowl only rule was dropped for the 1975 season so that the Wolverines could lose other bowls as well. In the 1975 season they lost the Orange Bowl then in the 1976-78 seasons they lost three more Rose Bowls, then in the 1979 season they lost the Gator Bowl.