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Topic: The 80% Club

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MrNubbz

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #168 on: July 27, 2018, 05:10:18 PM »
Spurrier was not only a great ball coach, but a ton of fun and great for the sport. I definitely miss him.
Yup Steve Superior and good Ole Boy Bowden was must see TV for a decade
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ELA

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #169 on: July 27, 2018, 05:14:07 PM »
Spurrier was not only a great ball coach, but a ton of fun and great for the sport. I definitely miss him.
About the only coach I can think of right now who is similarly fun, is Mike Leach, but he clearly hasn't had as much success as Spurrier did, and he doesn't get as much airtime.  

No question

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #170 on: July 28, 2018, 12:10:50 AM »
GA Southern was in a double wing, triple option offense vs Bama, not the wishbone.  Yes, these are in the same family of offenses, but it's important to make the distinction when there is one.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #171 on: July 28, 2018, 03:59:26 PM »
very important, maybe not important a tall
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Entropy

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #172 on: July 31, 2018, 11:21:15 AM »
This would be correct, based on 1-2 years of superior recruiting.  But we're going on 6-7 years of #1ish recruiting classes, stacked on top of each other.  Alabama's rosters for the last 3-4 years have been THE most talented since scholarship limits began.  Not arguably, not kinda/sort, but definitively.  Other elite programs get top-5 recruiting classes sometimes - maybe 2 in 3 years or 3 in 5.  
No one else has 6-7 straight 1st or 2nd-ranked classes.  So yes, Bama's roster is so talented that they should never lose.  Their playoff games vs Washington and Michigan State the last few years are closer to their actual talent level than their losses to Auburn or Clemson.
If Alabama were to go 10-2 this year or next year, there's a good case to say Saban has mailed it in and isn't coaching very well.  They're that good.
agree..  bama should not lose football games.
I believe Bama's been favored in every game the past 4-5 years except for one.  I want to say 3 years ago, UGA was a slight favorite at home.  It sort of made sense with the idea you noted - experience and such.  But Bama blew them out like 38-10 or something like that.

Bama's recruiting SHOULD make them letdown-proof, lack of experience-proof, and whatever other issues the rest of the top programs deal with in their rare losses.  Alabama should never lose.  They've reached that level - higher than mid-late 90s UNL (system, great coaching/development), late 80s Miami, or mid-70s OU.  
I agree...  Bama is on a new level.    They shouldn't lose or have let downs because their 2nd team is probably the 2nd best team in CF.   
Nobody has recruited that high of a level that long..   A few teams have done it for bursts illegally, but nobody that long

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #173 on: July 31, 2018, 12:59:23 PM »
However, there's a problem with the "shouldn't lose" theory, as explained by pretty much every engineer who ever lived...


Quote
In theory, there is no difference between practice and theory. In practice, there is. 

Yes, Alabama should be favored in basically every game they play. That doesn't mean they're not going to get upset. 

FearlessF

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #174 on: July 31, 2018, 01:01:34 PM »
also, take into account that when the high school kid is offered it jumps and then again when he verbals to Bama, his star power increases.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #175 on: July 31, 2018, 03:42:41 PM »
However, there's a problem with the "shouldn't lose" theory, as explained by pretty much every engineer who ever lived...


Yes, Alabama should be favored in basically every game they play. That doesn't mean they're not going to get upset.
"Shouldn't" is the precise, correct language.  I didn't say "won't", because yes, upsets do happen.  However, with that in mind, Alabama's talent level is more than just one order of magnitude over everyone else.  They should be upset less often than the norm, within the 1-3 teams they play each season who are top-10 or so.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

medinabuckeye1

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #176 on: July 31, 2018, 04:52:42 PM »
"Shouldn't" is the precise, correct language.  I didn't say "won't", because yes, upsets do happen.  However, with that in mind, Alabama's talent level is more than just one order of magnitude over everyone else.  They should be upset less often than the norm, within the 1-3 teams they play each season who are top-10 or so.  
I generally agree with your statement but I think this sells modern schedules in general and Bama's specifically quite a bit short.  In a Championship season Bama would most likely play at least three top-10 teams:
  • SECCG
  • CFP semi-final
  • CFP Championship

Additionally, three of Bama's 2018 opponents finished 2017 ranked:
  • #10 Auburn
  • #18 LSU
  • #19 MissSt

The CG and two CFP games make a huge difference and this example really illustrates that point.  In a Championship season in the old days Bama would have had no CG and a bowl against whoever the SEC's Champion was slated to play.  That is only one game instead of three and the one game could wind up being against a relatively weak team if the SugarBowl's other participant wasn't top-tier.  Most Championship seasons now will end with three consecutive games against high-end opponents.  

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The 80% Club
« Reply #177 on: July 31, 2018, 10:46:21 PM »
I was talking about regular season.

With Auburn, the SECCG, then the playoff, those are the only types of teams that could possibly beat Alabama...and to play perhaps 4 of those in a row does diminish the odds of an undefeated season (for anyone).

So no one is "likely" to win the NC, but while all of the other helmets are hovering around 5-6% chance, Alabama is at 20%.  Yes, those are taken right out of my ass, but you get the point.  Alabama isn't >50% chance to win it all each year, but they're well ahead of anyone else who has a chance.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

 

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