Sure, expectations are what put Simms ahead of Applewhite to begin with. He certainly hadn't done anything to earn it, outside of being a more highly prized recruit.
I do think Texas beats Colorado in the 2001 B12 CCG if Applewhite starts and Simms never plays, but then that would have meant Texas would have played Miami for the MNC instead of Nebraska going to that game, and I don't think Texas would have much fared better than the Huskers did...