We have no way to tell among these individuals. But the more data you collect, the clearer the picture is - the higher the volume, at some unknown tipping point, you start to regress to the mean.
I just don't think it's remotely that simple.
I don't think these other backs have higher ypc BECAUSE they have lower attempts. I think they have higher ypc because they were used differently than "volume" backs.
Not all carries are the same. As I tried to point out when you look at, say, Darren McFadden vs Felix Jones. The two players were on the team for three years alongside each other, but McFadden had ~2x the carries as Jones, yet Jones had ~2 ypc higher than McFadden.
If Jones consistently got higher ypc perhaps one would easily claim that it was ludicrous to give McFadden twice as many carries, right? Because by your rationale, you should reduce McFadden's workload which will make his ypc go up, and increase Jones' workload until his ypc regresses to equal McFadden's at a reduced workload.
What coach--
making millions of dollars--can't figure this simple math out???
I'm saying that there's a reason you STILL give McFadden more carries despite lower ypc. Because they're different backs with different skill sets. Football is a situational game, and giving McFadden a first-down Power run is a carry he's more suited to than Jones. Giving Jones a pitch to the edge on 3rd-and-8 when the defense has to respect the pass is a carry he's more suited to than McFadden. I'd say the average ypc (but also higher variance) of that pitch is higher than the average ypc of the Power, but in most pro-style offenses you run Power more often than a sweep.
So your volume backs will naturally get different types of carries than your COP backs, and usually more of them.
There's no "regression to the mean" here. There's situational football and backs being used in different ways.
