Lets talk about CFP chances for B1G teams, I think this thread is as good a place as any.
There are a slew of SEC teams with two or less losses so I think it is safe to say that a three-loss team from the B1G is NOT getting into the playoff unless:
- They win the league despite the three losses (this would only be realistically possible for a team with an OOC loss such as Iowa (ISU), USC (ND), Minnesota (Cal) or Michigan (OU), or
- The third loss is IN the B1GCG: The Committee has shown over the years that they will NOT penalize a team for losing a CG that they earned their way into so if you go into the CG "in" the CFP, you probably aren't falling out by losing.
Thus the contenders:
10-0/7-0 Indiana, vs UW, off, at PU:
I think that the Hoosiers have probably already clinched but one more win ends all doubt.
9-0/6-0 Ohio State, vs UCLA, vs RU, at M:
IMHO, the Buckeyes need one more win. I think that 10-2 with a nice OOC win over Texas and mostly dominating wins over their opponents is in so basically the Buckeyes just need to go 1-2 over the last three.
8-1/5-1 Oregon, vs MN, vs USC, at UDub:
IMHO, the Ducks need two more wins. They *SHOULD* beat Minnesota tonight but if there was ever a trap game this is it. This game is on a short week after playing a tough, physical game in Iowa City and sandwiched between two ranked opponents. The Ducks also have a shot at the B1GCG but they'll need to win out and hope for an upset loss by the Buckeyes.
7-2/5-1 USC, vs Iowa, at ORE, vs UCLA:
I think the Trojans would love a redo of that Illinois game. Without that loss they'd probably only need to beat either Iowa OR Oregon but with that loss on the resume they probably need to beat both (and UCLA). If they do manage to get to 10-2 they'll have a really good argument with both losses being close and a H2H win over Michigan.
7-2/5-1 Michigan, at NU, at UMD, vs tOSU:
The Wolverines need to win out. If they lose to either Northwestern or Maryland then even an upset of the Buckeyes wouldn't get them in because that upset would be their only quality win. There are three currently-ranked teams on Michigan's schedule and they already lost to two of them (at OU, at USC). One note, I think that winning their last three then losing the B1GCG would get them in at 10-3 but they HAVE to win the three on the schedule.
6-3/4-2 Iowa, at USC, vs MSU, at UNL:
I don't think Iowa can make it without chaos. I just don't think that 9-3/7-2 is good enough with a loss to a middling ISU team so they'd need to sneak into the B1GCG which would require either IU losing out or tOSU losing two of their last three so it isn't likely.
6-3/4-2 Minnesota, at ORE, at NU, vs UW:
Frankly, I think the illusion of Minnesota being a good team is going to come crashing down over these last three games. IMHO they are MUCH more likely to lose out than win out but if they did somehow win out to finish 9-3/7-2 they'd still need chaos (see Iowa above) to get into the B1GCG because that record with a two-score loss to Cal and blowout losses to Iowa and tOSU isn't anywhere near enough.
