Maybe because if OSU and Indiana win, it doesn't matter what happens in the Oregon-UDub game? I dunno.
I think that you are right. If Ohio State and Indiana both win then they both finish 9-0 and the issue of whether Oregon finishes 8-1 or 7-2 is irrelevant to the B1GCG discussion.
The SoS metric determines some of these ties so here are the opponent win % figures for the four relevant teams:
- .528 Oregon's B1G opponents are 38-34
- .417 Michigan's B1G opponents are 30-42
- .403 Ohio State's B1G opponents are 29-43
- .333 Indiana's B1G opponents are 24-48
Oregon absolutely will finish #1 among these teams in this metric because you can't make up 8 games on the final weekend. Indiana's will finish last because they can't realistically (and probably can't mathematically) make up 4-5 games to catch tOSU's or Michigan's. That leaves the Buckeyes and Wolverines and that one is in play because Ohio State's opponents could make up one game.
Here is what I get:
Here is the
link to the B1G site which lays all of this out. @Brutus Buckeye was right, they combined what I have as scenarios #1 and #2 because the result of the Oregon/Washington game is irrelevant to this discussion of Ohio State and Indiana both win.
Tiebreakers:
Scenario #1:
Ohio State gets home jerseys based on better opponent record.
Scenario #2:
Same as #1.
Scenario #3:
Indiana gets the top spot at 9-0 leaving Ohio State, Michigan, and Oregon all tied at 8-1 for the second spot. Common opponents doesn't help because none of them lost to a common opponent. Falls to record of conference opponents where Oregon wins.
Scenario #4:
This one is pretty simple. Michigan wins the tiebreaker over tOSU based on H2H.
Scenario #5:
This one is pretty simple. Indiana wins the tiebreaker over Oregon based on H2H.
Scenario #6:
There are no ties to break. Ohio State is #1 because they are the only 9-0 team and Indiana is #2 because they are the only 8-1 team.
Scenario #7:
This one is the biggest mess. It is a 4-way tie at 8-1 between the Ducks, Wolverines, Buckeyes, and Hoosiers. H2H doesn't help because they didn't all play. The only common opponent is Wisconsin and all four beat Wisconsin. Thus it falls to record of B1G opponents where Oregon wins. Here is where it gets tricky. Second in record of opponents could be either Michigan OR Ohio State but it doesn't matter because instead, Oregon is removed and the other three proceed to the three-way tiebreaker. There is no H2H but Indiana is eliminated based on common opponents because they would be 1-1 against Purdue and Wisconsin while the Buckeyes and Wolverines would be 2-0. Then Ohio State and Michigan would proceed to the two-team tiebreaker where Michigan wins based on H2H.
Scenario #8 where ALL of the favorites lose creates a three-way tie between the Wolverines, Buckeyes, and Hoosiers. In that case H2H doesn't help but common opponents removes Indiana because they would be 1-1 vs PU and UW while the Buckeyes and Wolverines would both be 2-0. Then Michigan would get the home jerseys based on their H2H win.
So for the four teams:
Ohio State:
- If the Buckeyes win they are in and they are playing Indiana.
- If the Buckeyes lose they can only get in if Indiana and Oregon also lose in which case they get a rematch with Michigan.
Indiana:
- If the Hoosiers win they are in and playing either Ohio State (if the Buckeyes also win) or Oregon (if tOSU loses and Ore wins) or Michigan (if tOSU and Oregon both lose).
- If the Hoosiers lose they can only get in by Ohio State winning and in that case they are in and play Ohio State.
Oregon:
- If Oregon wins they still only go if Michigan beats Ohio State. In that case they play IU if IU wins or Michigan if IU loses.
- If Oregon loses they are out.
Michigan:
- If Michigan wins they still only go if at least one of IU/Ore loses. If Oregon loses they play IU. If IU loses, they play Oregon. If both lose, they play tOSU.
- If Michigan loses they are out.
Of the eight scenarios:
- 6 - IU goes to the B1GCG in six and can play any of the others.
- 5 - tOSU goes to the B1GCG in five and can play IU or M but not Ore.
- 3 - Michigan goes to the B1GCG in three and can play any of the others.
- 2 - Oregon goes to the B1GCG in two and can play either IU or M.
