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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 3

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 3
« Reply #42 on: November 10, 2020, 05:25:51 PM »
There was a year when Maryland opened by stomping Texas. Initially we all ranked them high, but then their QBs began to drop like flies to the point where they were, as you put it, playing mascots and cheerleaders at the QB position. At that point we all started ranking them at or near the bottom of the ladder, regardless of the fact that they were one of the top teams when they were "at full strength."

So you will have to forgive me for being a little confused about when we are supposed to base our rankings on reality vs what they might be like in some parallel universe where they are "at full strength." I mean, they can't even play right now. I've never seen a team so thoroughly depleted into ineptitude. Ranking them ahead of illinois is merely a symbolic nod to the fact that they won the head to head, and to illustrate just how poorly the Illini have performed.
I said it earlier, but there's a difference between losing players for a season and having a temporary blip from COVID.

Let's say you were doing an NFL power ranking right now. The Steelers are 8-0. It was just reported today that Big Ben is on the reserve/COVID list. Whereas last year he was out for the season due to injury. 

You have two scenarios:

  • Big Ben is on the reserve/COVID list and potentially could miss this weekend's game, but unlikely to miss beyond that.
  • Big Ben had a season-ending injury and Mason Rudolph is the guy going forward.

I'd venture to say that in scenario 1, you should not change your power ranking of the Steelers at all, even if it means they're a lot more likely to lose THIS weekend's game. In scenario 2, you drop them significantly in a power ranking because despite being 8-0, the makeup of the roster has changed. In scenario 1, if COVID ends up hospitalizing Big Ben and putting him on a ventilator, of course, it becomes scenario 2 very quickly. 

"Full strength" to me means that if a player is expected to return shortly, you count him as part of full strength. If a player is not expected to return shortly, i.e. Jack Coan, you don't include him in your full strength calculation. 

These players with COVID are coming back, and soon. All expectation will be that after the Michigan game, they will be at legitimate full strength. 

I'd probably dock them a few spots in a power ranking because with the distraction of COVID and with missing several weeks of game reps, I think their "full strength" isn't as good as it would be if they had two extra games to find their groove. But if I was ranking them today, I'd be ranking them as if all the COVID players were healthy at the least. 

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 3
« Reply #43 on: November 10, 2020, 05:50:19 PM »
I suspect that the infected players have been held out of practice in order to avoid contaminating the healthy players. If so, then they will have missed a lot more than a few weeks worth of game reps. Maybe they studied a helluva lot of film, but even so it will take a few games to get back into tip top game shape.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 3
« Reply #44 on: November 10, 2020, 05:57:32 PM »
I suspect that the infected players have been held out of practice in order to avoid contaminating the healthy players. If so, then they will have missed a lot more than a few weeks worth of game reps. Maybe they studied a helluva lot of film, but even so it will take a few games to get back into tip top game shape.
Exactly. I could completely justify dropping them a few spots because of the missed time and what that will do to them on the field. 

But 13th? Nah. They're still Wisconsin.

ELA

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 3
« Reply #45 on: November 10, 2020, 09:40:31 PM »
I've always interpreted this as "rank as you see fit", if that means results, if that means eye test, if that means whatever metrics you choose.  Just don't get offended if someone questions you.  Be able/willing to defend it.

Honestbuckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 3
« Reply #46 on: November 10, 2020, 09:49:50 PM »
The only thing I can add is that I don’t see any team that is unbeatable or even close to it and that includes the buckeyes. I would say the same thing nationally.
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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ELA

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 3
« Reply #47 on: November 11, 2020, 08:57:22 AM »
ESPN Power Rankings


  • Ohio State
  • Wisconsin
  • Indiana
  • Northwestern
  • Purdue
  • Iowa
  • Maryland
  • Michigan State
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Penn State
  • Rutgers
  • Nebraska
  • Illinois


Entropy

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 3
« Reply #48 on: November 11, 2020, 11:50:59 AM »
1.  OSU
2.  Indiana
3.  Wisc
4.  NW
5.  Iowa
6.  Maryland
7.  Purdue
8.  MSU
9.  Michigan
10.  Minn
11. PSU
12. Rutgers
13.  Ill
14.  Nebraska

FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 3
« Reply #49 on: November 11, 2020, 01:47:12 PM »
ESPN sucks, so........
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Hawkinole

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 3
« Reply #50 on: November 12, 2020, 12:58:00 AM »
We have unanimous agreement about Ohio State and Illinois.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 3
« Reply #51 on: November 12, 2020, 10:21:36 AM »
@bwarbiany :

The comparison to how other teams did against your opponents thing will have more data after this week, but it will get screwy due to the varying number of opponents each team will have played. 

Barring further cancelations, I think that after this weekend the teams will have played:

  • Four opponents: IU, MSU, M, RU, PSU, NU, IA, MN, IL
  • Three opponents: tOSU, UMD, UNL, PU
  • Two opponents: UW

For now my plan is to use:
  • A 1-4 ranking for the opponents of the nine teams that will have played four opponents each.
  • A 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 ranking for the opponents of the four teams that will have played three opponents each
  • A 2, 3 ranking for Wisconsin's two opponents. 

Does that seem statistically sound to you?

My math:
For opponents of the teams that will have played three opponents:
  • If you are the best (like PSU against tOSU) that is good, but you aren't better than three other teams like the best against the four-opponent schools, only three. Had that team played four opponents you would be either first or second so I took the average, 1.5.
  • If you are the worst (like UNL against tOSU) that is bad, but you aren't worse than three other teams like the worst against the four-opponent schools, only three. Had that team played four opponents you would be either third or fourth so I took the average, 3.5.
  • If you are in the middle at #2 then if that team had played three opponents you would be either second or third so I took the average, 2.5.
For Wisconsin's two opponents (Illinois and Michigan):
  • Whichever of the two is the best would be either first, second, or third if Wisconsin had played four opponents so I took the average, 2.
  • Whichever of the two is the worst would be either second, third, or fourth if Wisconsin had played four opponents so I took the average, 3.


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 3
« Reply #52 on: November 12, 2020, 10:52:24 AM »
Does that seem statistically sound to you?
I'd just rank it straight up and let it be.

For the three-game teams, it's not even that different. Which leaves Wisconsin as the only outlier...

Wisconsin is currently the best of the three teams that has played Illinois, and that is likely to extend since the Illini face Rutgers next, so that would be a "1". Wisconsin is unlikely to be worse than third against Michigan (I don't expect them to be blown out by 25 like the Gophers), but with style of play, rust, and still having players out, it's a tall order for them to beat Michigan by more than IU did, so unlikely they'll get a "1" there. Even if they did, that'll be what, "tied" for first place with Ohio State and you'd give the tie to the team with more games played IMHO. 

So Wisconsin will probably either average out to 1.5 or 2, which considering that most of us think they're the best team in the West "at full strength", wouldn't be that far away from reality. 

Hawkinole

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 3
« Reply #53 on: November 14, 2020, 01:02:19 AM »
I know this does not address Medina's concerns, but I am discounting Wisconsin in the polling, and see a few others are, as well, until they actually play games. Wisconsin's practices are not at full strength. I have to think the timing on offense will be affected, and conditioning will be affected when Wisconsin restarts. We will see, but I suspect it will take a few weeks to get back to full strength.

By the time of Wisconsin's season finale, I will probably feel sorry for Iowa.

 

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