I think it's way too early to call Iowa & Wisconsin the only realistic contenders. Remember in 2018, Northwestern had an awful start to the year losing to Duke and Akron, but then rallied the troops and went 8-1 to win the West.
I think with the exception of Illinois, these teams are all in play here at this point. I think Iowa & Wisconsin have enough flaws that a team like Purdue or Minnesota (or obviously Northwestern) could get things figured out and challenge. Nebraska might even be one of the best teams here, but those 2 early losses are probably too much to overcome.
I was basically going off of my general agreement with our current power rankings where we have Iowa at #3, Wisconsin at #6, and the rest of the B1G-W as the worst five teams in the league. We could be wrong but unless we are wildly wrong, it is between Iowa and Wisconsin.
Purdue has to play both Iowa and Ohio State on the road. If they lose those and win all the rest of their games (or trade an upset in one of those for a loss in one of the others) they'd finish 7-2 which might win the division but I just don't think they have that in them and 6-3 isn't going to win the division unless it really is a dumpster fire.
Yes, I am not sure if the true identity of this year's teams have emerged yet. Last year Iowa started 0-2 and then won its last 6 games including double-digit victories over PSU and Wiscy. Meanwhile Purdue started 2-0 and then absolutely fell apart, finishing 2-4.
With the exception of what
@betarhoalphadelta pointed out, I agree. WRT his point, I think that is something we miss a lot. When a team goes 2-0 then 0-4 all we tend to see is the record but context is important. Purdue's two wins were by four points at home over Iowa in a game where they got outgained and by a TD over an Illinois team that was so bad they fired their coach. Yeah, it is 2-0 but it isn't like they were setting the world on fire. Then they had three losses by a TD, a FG, and a TD and finally a 10-point loss to Nebraska. Similarly, it is 0-4 but it isn't like they weren't competitive in the losses.
With that said I doubt the division will be wrapped up this week because the team with the best chance right now, Iowa, still has games left with PSU, Purdue, Wisc and the rest of the West Division after that.
But I would say that Iowa has an opportunity to wrap up the division by the end of October if they can run the table against MD, PSU, Purdue, and Wiscy. The odds are low they could do that, but if they can its over by Nov 1.
I agree on this, if Iowa gets to 8-0/5-0 it is over and I don't think it will be wrapped up this week but I do think that these are two really key games because they are both games that I could see going either way and there is a HUGE difference between the possibilities.
One potential sleeper might be Purdue, which has not lost in the Big Ten yet. If Jeff Brahm can get some of his young talent to step up on offense, while his defense continues to play well, throw in a couple of lucky breaks, and they might just pull a division title out of nowhere. Odds are low but its much more likely in the West than the East.
Yeah, I don't think so. I could see Purdue pulling a big upset here or there but I don't think they have it in them to play all that well week-in and week-out which probably leaves something like 6-3 as their ceiling and, as I said above, that isn't going to win the division unless it is awful.
Purdue could be a sleeper in what appears to be a VERY weak B1G-W today. But that's more a statement on the B1G-W than on Purdue. I think Purdue's got some talent, they appear to be a lot better on D, and they have offensive weapons. But they don't have a functional OL, and I'm not sure that's something that can just be corrected via practice or scheme--they're just not very good up front.
I agree, the only way I see Purdue winning the division is if the division is REALLY bad. If Iowa turns out to be a paper tiger and Mertz keeps throwing the ball to guys in non-Wisconsin jerseys then it really could be anybody's division to win but that would likely come down to a tiebreaker among a group of 6-3 teams.
I believe the only thing that's been proven so far is that the Big Ten West is off to an extremely bad start. But the gap is probably not as big as everyone thinks.
I think that remains to be determined. Wisconsin was close in both of their losses so they aren't all that far from being a top-10 team but at the same time with their turnover issues they could lose to almost any opponent. I could see them cleaning things up, going on a tear, and finishing 10-2 or falling apart and missing a bowl. Who knows. Iowa is a bit of a question as well. The wins over Indiana and ISU looked great when those teams were #17 and #9 but now they are both 2-2, Indiana just barely beat WKU, and ISU lost to Baylor. So how good is Iowa? I don't think we know. We'll learn more tonight and a lot more when PSU visits next Saturday.