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Topic: B1G-W non-race

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medinabuckeye1

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B1G-W non-race
« on: October 16, 2017, 04:04:14 PM »
There just isn't a race in the B1G-W to talk about.  Standings:
  • 3-0 Wisconsin
  • 2-2 Nebraska
  • 1-2 Northwestern
  • 1-2 Iowa
  • 1-2 Purdue
  • 0-3 Minnesota
  • 0-3 Illinois
Yikes!  If you are wondering why only one team is above .500 it is because the B1G-W is an abysmal 2-8 against the B1G-E so far this year.  

Only Iowa could win the B1G-W over the Badgers without Wisconsin losing at least three times.  Even there, the Hawkeyes would need to beat Ohio State and Wisconsin back-to-back the first two Saturdays in November and win their other four games (@NU, vMN, vPU, @UNL) and get outside help in the form of someone (hello Michigan?) upsetting the Badgers to give Wisconsin a second loss.  

It is over.  Wisconsin has wrapped up the B1G-W title only a third of the way through the season.  
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G-W non-race
« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2017, 04:12:47 PM »
What scenario would have to unfold in order to have Minnesota or Illinois win the B1G West? 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G-W non-race
« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2017, 04:34:52 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 16, 2017, 04:12:47 PM
What scenario would have to unfold in order to have Minnesota or Illinois win the B1G West?
As a practical matter I find this to be so improbable as to be not worth considering.  Mathematically there are still plenty of possibilities because they and Wisconsin have each only played three games.  At least in theory, either Minnesota or Illinois could finish 6-3 while Wisconsin could finish 3-6.  
Neither Illinois nor Minnesota has played Wisconsin yet so the shortest way there is:
Illinois:
  • Win out to finish 6-3 (@MN, vUW, @PU, vIU, @tOSU, vNU)  That would give PU and NU each a third loss.  
  • Wisconsin loses at least two additional games.  
  • Iowa loses at least two of their remaining games.  
  • Nebraska loses at least two of their remaining games.  
In that case Illinois would finish 6-3 while Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska would be no better than 5-4.  Wisconsin, Purdue, and Northwestern would each be no better than 6-3 and each would have a H2H loss to the Illini so the Illini would head to Indy.  

Minnesota:
  • Win out to finish 6-3 (vIL, @IA, @M, vUNL, @NU, vUW)  That would give UNL, NU, and Iowa each a third loss.  
  • Wisconsin loses at least two additional games.  
  • Purdue loses at least two of their remaining games.  
In that case Minnesota would finish 6-3 while Purdue and Illinois finished no better than 5-4.  Wisconsin, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Iowa would each be no better than 6-3 and each would have a H2H loss to the Gophers so the Gophers would head to Indy.  
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G-W non-race
« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2017, 05:03:06 PM »
Thanks. 

The wild card would be Wisconsin going into the tank, and losing out their final four games, after defeating Maryland and the Illini; both of which they could beat with their scout team. 
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G-W non-race
« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2017, 08:26:08 PM »
just when you think the race is over, the race begins
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847badgerfan

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Re: B1G-W non-race
« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2017, 08:48:40 PM »
I remember back in 2014 UW had little chance to win the West, and they did. Anything can happen.

Like, say, Hornibrook goes down and you have a true freshman QB at the helm. Or people continue to get hurt on the front 7 and OL.

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?? NO!!
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G-W non-race
« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2017, 09:12:18 PM »
we all late soooooo long for the season to start, and then some think the season is over after a few weeks

after all the upsets last weekend, we should have been reminded
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G-W non-race
« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2017, 09:21:32 PM »
Yes, injuries to the wrong players can derail a season in the blink of an eye. 

Wild upsets are also commonplace, as we witnessed on Friday. 

Hell, look at Nebraska last year. 7-0. Ranked in the top 10. Then the air raced out of the balloon. 
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LittlePig

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Re: B1G-W non-race
« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2017, 10:39:56 PM »
I did not realize how bad it was until I read this thread.  Reality has finally caught to perception.  

If Iowa would have held on for that upset of Penn St, we might still have a race.   But they didn't and now its over.
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LittlePig

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Re: B1G-W non-race
« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2017, 10:48:15 PM »
This kind of reminds of 2015 when it seemed like Iowa had wrapped up the Big Ten West by the end of October.   Mathematicly Iowa did not clinch u til the middle of November, but it was pretty over after Iowa beat NW and Wisc in October and nobody else was close.
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MarqHusker

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Re: B1G-W non-race
« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2017, 11:05:46 PM »
We've seen teams go from a bounce from being in the BCS title game, to being dragged to play in the Alamo Bowl.
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Hawkinole

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Re: B1G-W non-race
« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2017, 12:22:56 AM »
There is probably a 50% chance Iowa will defeat Wisconsin or Ohio State. It seems most years Iowa beats someone it shouldn't. Iowa's overall record against Ohio State, and the fact Ohio State seems to be gaining strength, suggests to me they won't knock off Ohio State. Iowa plays pretty well in Madison, so I am going to say that game should be interesting.

I came into this season thinking Iowa was about a 7-5 team; the passing game now exceeds expectation. The OL is depressing. The defense is usually good, but sporadically bad.

Considering what Iowa State has done after Iowa got lucky and beat them in the last minute, it really is a much tougher team than I thought possible. Considering Iowa has had a tough schedule, and has hung in there against the big boys, it looks like 7-5 is achievable, and 8-4 is possible. Iowa hasn't defeated any big boys; they won't win the division. There are no gimmes. Here is what is left on Iowa's plate:

NU
MN
OSU
WISC
PURDUE
NEB

Incidentally, Wisconsin will win the BTW.
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847badgerfan

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Re: B1G-W non-race
« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2017, 06:32:13 AM »
All bets are off when UW and Iowa play.

That's just the way it is; Some things will never change.
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fezzador

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Re: B1G-W non-race
« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2017, 07:57:25 AM »
Quote from: Hawkinole on October 17, 2017, 12:22:56 AM
There is probably a 50% chance Iowa will defeat Wisconsin or Ohio State. It seems most years Iowa beats someone it shouldn't. Iowa's overall record against Ohio State, and the fact Ohio State seems to be gaining strength, suggests to me they won't knock off Ohio State. Iowa plays pretty well in Madison, so I am going to say that game should be interesting.

I came into this season thinking Iowa was about a 7-5 team; the passing game now exceeds expectation. The OL is depressing. The defense is usually good, but sporadically bad.

Considering what Iowa State has done after Iowa got lucky and beat them in the last minute, it really is a much tougher team than I thought possible. Considering Iowa has had a tough schedule, and has hung in there against the big boys, it looks like 7-5 is achievable, and 8-4 is possible. Iowa hasn't defeated any big boys; they won't win the division. There are no gimmes. Here is what is left on Iowa's plate:

NU
MN
OSU
WISC
PURDUE
NEB

Incidentally, Wisconsin will win the BTW.
Pass protection has been decent (most likely the biggest reason for the improvement in the passing game), but the run game has certainly suffered this year.
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