Teams with 1st Loss Week 8:
none
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 8:
Michigan
Southern California
Navy
Virginia
Kentucky
San Diego State
Teams with 1st Win week 8:
Massachusetts
Charlotte
Percent of Undefeated Teams with 1st Loss
Week 0/1: 36.15% (47/130)
Week 2: 37.35% (31/83)
Week 3: 28.85% (15/52)
Week 4: 35.13% (13/37)
Week 5: 29.17% (7/24)
Week 6: 23.53% (4/17)
Week 7: 38.46% (5/13)
Week 8: 0% (0/8)
Maximum possible Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season:
5: No Change
Possible undefeated teams: Alabama/Georgia, Penn State/Wisconsin, Miami (FL), Texas Christian, and Central Florida/South Florida
Week 8 Thoughts:
-We did not have any of undefeated teams lose, but we eliminated 2 teams from the winless category this week. In a battle of 2 winless teams UMass finally got their victory (they have been close numerous weeks, but on the wrong side every time). Charlotte also got a 1-point win over UAB (who has done surprisingly well if their first year back).
-That leaves us with just 3 winless teams. Of the three, the one I am leased worried about winning a game is Baylor as they have been keeping it closer the last several weeks and they have a truly terrible Kansas team still on the schedule. Georgia Southern and UTEP give me more pause, but there are still chances for them. UMass killed Georgia Southern this week and their coach was fired.
-Other games have revealed a few things. Undefeated Penn State killed Michigan. Penn State looks like the real deal and it is now a 3-way race in the Big Ten eastern division between them, 1-loss Ohio State, and 1-loss Michigan State. The Spartans are somewhat forgotten in this and certainly the longest shot, but probably not more than Penn State was last year so good not to forget them just yet.
-Notre Dame won impressively vs. USC which has 2 big Rose/Sugar implications. One is that the PAC-12 is going to have an increasingly difficult time getting in. It’s 2 remaining 1-loss teams are the Washington schools. Washington State’s 1 loss came in blow-out fashion 2 weeks ago to a so-so Cal team. Washington meanwhile had an out of conference schedule the committee is not going to like and its loss to Arizona State suggests there might be troubles ahead. That said, Washington is still definitely the conference’s best chance at a semi-final bowl and will probably be fine if they win out. That’s a lot of eggs in one basket for the conference though.
-The other thing with that win is that 1-loss Notre Dame needs to start being taken seriously as a Rose Bowl/Sugar Bowl contender. Win out and their strength of schedule combined with how they have looked will likely put them in. Their one big issue though is the loss to Georgia. If Georgia wins the SEC and gets in that doesn’t hurt them, but say Georgia wins out and losses to Alabama in the SEC Championship game. A 1-loss Georgia would then be hard to by-pass for Notre Dame given the head to head (I think the Irish could pass them with 2 losses, but not with 1). That said, that’s a long way off now and still an unlikely result.
-Not that they were a national title contender or anything, but previous 1-loss Kentucky lost this week. They got killed, but it was interesting seeing them be the 3rd to last SEC team on the undefeated or 1-loss list (even if schedule helped a lot).
-In the Group of 5 race, it now seems all American. Memphis won a tough game at Houston, which leaves them with 1-loss in the west. In the east, both UCF and USF continue undefeated. Meanwhile San Diego State lost in the Mountain West all but putting them out of contention. I think at this point, a 2-loss Boise State is now the biggest competition and it would take a lot for that to work out (nothing insane, but quite a few things moving all in their direction). Toledo and Marshall still not 100% out, but would need even more I think.
Week 9 Thoughts:
-Our undefeated teams play in the following games: Undefeated Penn State @ 1-loss Ohio State, undefeated Georgia vs. Florida, undefeated TCU @ Iowa State, undefeated Wisconsin @ Illinois, undefeated Miami (FL) @ North Carolina, Houston @ undefeated South Florida, and Austin Peay @ undefeated Central Florida
-We have 1 game between 1-loss teams this week: North Carolina State @ Notre Dame
-Other bigger games involving 1-loss teams include: Georgia Tech @ 1-loss Clemson, 1-loss Oklahoma State @ West Virginia, 1-loss Washington State @ Arizona,
-For our winless teams, we have: Texas @ winless Baylor, winless Georgia Southern @ Troy, and UTSA @ winless UTEP
-Lots of big games this week. The winner of Ohio State/Penn State is likely going to win the east (although don’t completely discount Michigan State). TCU is going up against a suddenly very competitive Cyclone team which will either further cement TCU’s place in the national conversation or make us at least consider Iowa State going to the Big 12 Championship. Notre Dame vs. North Carolina State is showing us the team that is the most likely to battle Miami for the divisional crown vs. the Irish who need to show follow-up to last week’s big game. Georgia Tech vs. Clemson is a big deal for a few reasons. If Georgia Tech were to manage to win it, it would mean Clemson would no longer control their destiny in the ACC even as North Carolina State would remain without any conference losses.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 2, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, SEC: 2, total: 8
Miami (FL)
South Florida
Penn State
Wisconsin
Central Florida
Texas Christian
Georgia
Alabama
One-Loss Teams: ACC: 3, American: 1, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 0, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 0, independents: 1, total: 13
North Carolina State
Ohio State
Marshall
Notre Dame
Toledo
Oklahoma State
Michigan State
Memphis
Virginia Tech
Oklahoma
Clemson
Washington State
Washington
Remaining Winless Teams: Big 12: 1, Conference USA: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 0, total: 3
Baylor
UTEP
Georgia Southern
