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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 8
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medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #42 on:** October 26, 2021, 12:53:47 PM »

Results posted, votes through @TyphonInc , 15 voters.

Here are the things that at least half of us agree on:

13/15 that tOSU is #1
12/15 that RU is #14
11/15 that M is #2
9/15 that MN is #7
9/15 that PU is #8
9/15 that NU is #13
8/15 that IA is #4
8/15 that UW is #6
8/15 that UNL is #9
8/15 that IU is #12

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #43 on:** October 26, 2021, 01:03:34 PM »

Ranking each team based on relative performance against league opponents so far:

1.5 Ohio State
2.375 Wisconsin
2.375 Minnesota
2.5 Purdue
2.5 Nebraska
2.75 Iowa
2.875 Michigan
3.125 Penn State
3.2 Illinois
3.5 Indiana
3.5 Rutgers
3.625 Michigan State
4.125 Maryland
4.125 Northwestern

Method:

Each B1G team has played five (IL, UNL) or four (the rest) league games.
This is therefore done on a five point scale.
For IL and UNL's opponents they are simply ranked 1-5 based on best performance against to worst performance against.
For the other 12 teams' opponents they are ranked 1.5 for best, 2.5 for second, 3.5 for third, and 4.5 for worst performance against.
The score listed above is the average.

Examples:
Ohio State:

Best of four against MN, 1.5
Best of four against UMD, 1.5
Best of four against IU, 1.5
Best of four against RU, 1.5
Average = 1.5

Wisconsin:

Best of five against IL, 1.0
Best of four against PU, 1.5
Third of four against M, 3.5
Third of four against PSU, 3.5
Average = 2.375

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #44 on:** October 26, 2021, 01:33:18 PM »

Quote from: um1963 on October 24, 2021, 02:06:33 PM

A two loss Alabama or OSU would destroy an undefeated Cincy, SMU, WF, UTSA, and San Diego St. They would also beat an undefeated MSU, UM and Oklahoma 8 times out of 10. There is years of data to support this. College football is a small handful of haves and a shitload of have nots.

If you want to watch competitive games during the playoff then you have to leave the have nots at home.

@um1963 First of all, welcome to CFB51! Always good to see new faces here.

As someone new here, the debate we're having is essentially something that has been rehashed back and forth here over many years, and is a microcosm of the same debate being rehashed across the college football world over the years...

Should the BCS/CFP teams be the "best teams" in the country, or should they be the "most deserving teams" in the country?

I agree with you that a 2-loss Alabama or OSU is the "better" team than any even undefeated G5 team, and is a "better" team than quite a few 1-loss conference champions. That doesn't mean they "deserve" a slot in a 4-team playoff.

The CFP is a balance between best and most deserving. Losing twice means you don't deserve entry to such a rarified field. Even if you're one of the 4 best in the country.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #45 on:** October 26, 2021, 05:12:36 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 26, 2021, 01:33:18 PM

@um1963 First of all, welcome to CFB51! Always good to see new faces here.

As someone new here, the debate we're having is essentially something that has been rehashed back and forth here over many years, and is a microcosm of the same debate being rehashed across the college football world over the years...

Should the BCS/CFP teams be the "best teams" in the country, or should they be the "most deserving teams" in the country?

I agree with you that a 2-loss Alabama or OSU is the "better" team than any even undefeated G5 team, and is a "better" team than quite a few 1-loss conference champions. That doesn't mean they "deserve" a slot in a 4-team playoff.

The CFP is a balance between best and most deserving. Losing twice means you don't deserve entry to such a rarified field. Even if you're one of the 4 best in the country.

FWIW, I think that a 2-loss tOSU, Bama, or ANY other P5 Champion should absolutely go to the CFP ahead of an undefeated Cincy. Lets look at Cincy and since this is a B1G board I'll start with the B1G team that they played, Indiana.

Cincy won the game 38-24.

Indiana led 7-0 at the end of the first quarter.
In the second quarter Indiana scored another TD while Cincy scored a TD and a FG.
Indiana led 14-10 at the half.
Cincy took their first lead late in the third quarter at 17-4 then Indiana scored on the ensuing drive to regain the lead 21-17.
Cincy regained the lead by returning the kickoff after IU retook the lead but missed the XP and thus led 23-21.
Cincy took the lead for good in the fourth quarter at 30-24.
Cincy scored a late TD to ice the game and won 38-24 after getting the 2pt conversion.

Compare to the B1G teams that the Hoosiers have played:

Ohio State won by 33 more points, scoring 16 more and giving up 17 less. Ohio State never trailed, took the lead for good in the first quarter, and led 44-7 at halftime.
Iowa won by 14 more points, scoring 4 less and giving up 18 less. Iowa never trailed, took the lead for good in the first quarter, and led 31-3 at halftime.
Penn State won by 10 more points, scoring 14 less but giving up 24 less. Penn State never trailed, took the lead for good in the second quarter, and led 14-0 at halftime.
MSU won by 9 less, scoring 18 less and giving up 9 less. MSU took the lead for good in the third quarter.

The Cincy/IU game was competitive and either team could have won. The IU/MSU game was similarly competitive and either team could have won. Indiana's games against tOSU, Iowa, and Penn State were one-sided blowouts in which tOSU, Iowa, and PSU were obviously vastly superior teams.

Now you could argue that tOSU faced a depleted IU to which I'd say ok, ignore tOSU and explain Iowa/PSU.

If you want an illustration of the EVERY YEAR gap between the top of the G5 and the top of the P5 simply look at Cincy two years ago. The 2019 Bearcats were one of the best teams in all of the G5. Memphis was that year's AAC Champion and G5 rep in the CFP Bowls. Cincy played Memphis twice both in Memphis and both were competitive games with Memphis winning by 10 and 5 points.

What would have happened if Cincy had played a top P5 school that year? Well, you don't need to speculate, they did. Cincy played Ohio State on September 7 and got absolutely annihilated. The Buckeyes led 28-0 at halftime and cruised to a 42-0 win. The Buckeyes outgained Cincy 508-273 and had more first downs 31-13. These stats were even more slanted while the game was still plausibly in doubt. Cincy had six possessions in the first half. One of them went for 12 plays and 66 yards and resulted in a blocked 32 yard FG. The other five:

3 plays, 2 yards, punt
4 plays, 15 yards, punt
3 plays, 2 yards, punt
4 plays, 19 yards, punt
4 plays, 19 yards, punt

MaximumSam · « **Reply #46 on:** October 26, 2021, 05:23:16 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 26, 2021, 05:12:36 PM

FWIW, I think that a 2-loss tOSU, Bama, or ANY other P5 Champion should absolutely go to the CFP ahead of an undefeated Cincy. Lets look at Cincy and since this is a B1G board I'll start with the B1G team that they played, Indiana.

Cincy won the game 38-24.
Indiana led 7-0 at the end of the first quarter.
In the second quarter Indiana scored another TD while Cincy scored a TD and a FG.
Indiana led 14-10 at the half.
Cincy took their first lead late in the third quarter at 17-4 then Indiana scored on the ensuing drive to regain the lead 21-17.
Cincy regained the lead by returning the kickoff after IU retook the lead but missed the XP and thus led 23-21.
Cincy took the lead for good in the fourth quarter at 30-24.
Cincy scored a late TD to ice the game and won 38-24 after getting the 2pt conversion.

Compare to the B1G teams that the Hoosiers have played:
Ohio State won by 33 more points, scoring 16 more and giving up 17 less. Ohio State never trailed, took the lead for good in the first quarter, and led 44-7 at halftime.
Iowa won by 14 more points, scoring 4 less and giving up 18 less. Iowa never trailed, took the lead for good in the first quarter, and led 31-3 at halftime.
Penn State won by 10 more points, scoring 14 less but giving up 24 less. Penn State never trailed, took the lead for good in the second quarter, and led 14-0 at halftime.
MSU won by 9 less, scoring 18 less and giving up 9 less. MSU took the lead for good in the third quarter.

The Cincy/IU game was competitive and either team could have won. The IU/MSU game was similarly competitive and either team could have won. Indiana's games against tOSU, Iowa, and Penn State were one-sided blowouts in which tOSU, Iowa, and PSU were obviously vastly superior teams.

Now you could argue that tOSU faced a depleted IU to which I'd say ok, ignore tOSU and explain Iowa/PSU.

If you want an illustration of the EVERY YEAR gap between the top of the G5 and the top of the P5 simply look at Cincy two years ago. The 2019 Bearcats were one of the best teams in all of the G5. Memphis was that year's AAC Champion and G5 rep in the CFP Bowls. Cincy played Memphis twice both in Memphis and both were competitive games with Memphis winning by 10 and 5 points.

What would have happened if Cincy had played a top P5 school that year? Well, you don't need to speculate, they did. Cincy played Ohio State on September 7 and got absolutely annihilated. The Buckeyes led 28-0 at halftime and cruised to a 42-0 win. The Buckeyes outgained Cincy 508-273 and had more first downs 31-13. These stats were even more slanted while the game was still plausibly in doubt. Cincy had six possessions in the first half. One of them went for 12 plays and 66 yards and resulted in a blocked 32 yard FG. The other five:
3 plays, 2 yards, punt
4 plays, 15 yards, punt
3 plays, 2 yards, punt
4 plays, 19 yards, punt
4 plays, 19 yards, punt

Gotta say, the logic is poor on this post. You compare 2019 OSU, one of the most statistically dominant teams in college football history, to a good but not great Cincy team that finished 11-3. OSU that year beat every single team they played (besides Clemson) by double digits. You then use that to say any P5 champ deserves a bid over Cincy. So you are saying Pitt, or Wake Forest, automatically deserve a nod over what may be a superior Cincy team, solely because they are in a "superior" conference. Further, OSU won a national championship with a very hairy win over Cincinnati, so even using just those two teams, not sure the comparison holds.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #47 on:** October 26, 2021, 05:34:57 PM »

Is there a team in the AP Top Ten that would not be favored over Cincy? Maybe Ole Miss, Iowa? Michigan State?

I think any of the top 7 would be favored by 7 points or more, the top two by double digits.

MaximumSam · « **Reply #48 on:** October 26, 2021, 05:42:00 PM »

Feel confident they would be underdogs to Georgia, Bama, OSU, and Michigan. Uncertain on Oklahoma. Probably favored over Oregon, MSU, Iowa, and Ole Miss.

Abba · « **Reply #49 on:** October 26, 2021, 05:56:19 PM »

1) Ohio State - still not sure about the defense
2) Michigan - when will JJ play?
3) Michigan State - bye
4) Iowa - bye
5) Wisconsin - best defense in the league, running game warming up
6) Penn State - do they care anymore?
7) Minnesota - looking solid
8) Purdue - same old same old
9) Nebraska - bye
10) Maryland - still could get 2 more wins
11) Illinois - showed some life
12) Indiana - defense looked bad, where were the creative blitzes?
13) Northwestern - hung in there for a half
14) Rutger - bye

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #50 on:** October 26, 2021, 05:59:26 PM »

Always fun to watch folks start with a conclusion, then work backwards.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #51 on:** October 26, 2021, 07:02:58 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 26, 2021, 05:12:36 PM

FWIW, I think that a 2-loss tOSU, Bama, or ANY other P5 Champion should absolutely go to the CFP ahead of an undefeated Cincy. Lets look at Cincy and since this is a B1G board I'll start with the B1G team that they played, Indiana.

Cincy won the game 38-24.
Indiana led 7-0 at the end of the first quarter.
In the second quarter Indiana scored another TD while Cincy scored a TD and a FG.
Indiana led 14-10 at the half.
Cincy took their first lead late in the third quarter at 17-4 then Indiana scored on the ensuing drive to regain the lead 21-17.
Cincy regained the lead by returning the kickoff after IU retook the lead but missed the XP and thus led 23-21.
Cincy took the lead for good in the fourth quarter at 30-24.
Cincy scored a late TD to ice the game and won 38-24 after getting the 2pt conversion.

Compare to the B1G teams that the Hoosiers have played:
Ohio State won by 33 more points, scoring 16 more and giving up 17 less. Ohio State never trailed, took the lead for good in the first quarter, and led 44-7 at halftime.
Iowa won by 14 more points, scoring 4 less and giving up 18 less. Iowa never trailed, took the lead for good in the first quarter, and led 31-3 at halftime.
Penn State won by 10 more points, scoring 14 less but giving up 24 less. Penn State never trailed, took the lead for good in the second quarter, and led 14-0 at halftime.
MSU won by 9 less, scoring 18 less and giving up 9 less. MSU took the lead for good in the third quarter.

The Cincy/IU game was competitive and either team could have won. The IU/MSU game was similarly competitive and either team could have won. Indiana's games against tOSU, Iowa, and Penn State were one-sided blowouts in which tOSU, Iowa, and PSU were obviously vastly superior teams.

Now you could argue that tOSU faced a depleted IU to which I'd say ok, ignore tOSU and explain Iowa/PSU.

If you want an illustration of the EVERY YEAR gap between the top of the G5 and the top of the P5 simply look at Cincy two years ago. The 2019 Bearcats were one of the best teams in all of the G5. Memphis was that year's AAC Champion and G5 rep in the CFP Bowls. Cincy played Memphis twice both in Memphis and both were competitive games with Memphis winning by 10 and 5 points.

What would have happened if Cincy had played a top P5 school that year? Well, you don't need to speculate, they did. Cincy played Ohio State on September 7 and got absolutely annihilated. The Buckeyes led 28-0 at halftime and cruised to a 42-0 win. The Buckeyes outgained Cincy 508-273 and had more first downs 31-13. These stats were even more slanted while the game was still plausibly in doubt. Cincy had six possessions in the first half. One of them went for 12 plays and 66 yards and resulted in a blocked 32 yard FG. The other five:
3 plays, 2 yards, punt
4 plays, 15 yards, punt
3 plays, 2 yards, punt
4 plays, 19 yards, punt
4 plays, 19 yards, punt

Don't care.

It's not like Cincy is a flash in the pan. Their last 3 seasons prior to 2021: 11-2 with a narrow bowl win over VT, 11-3 with a bowl blowout over BC, and 9-1 with their only loss being a 3 point loss to UGA.

If you want to argue a 12-1 P5 conference winner over an undefeated Cincy? Ok. I'll entertain the argument. Cincy's argument for "deserve to be there" is somewhat predicated on there not being "more deserving" teams to be there.

But if you want to argue an 11-2 P5 conference winner over an undefeated Cincy? No. An 11-2 conference winner over a 1-loss Cincy? Sure. But not over an undefeated Cincy.

I admit a top P5 school is BETTER than Cincy. But if you don't even let them in at that point? Just break it into two divisions and officially block them out of ever appearing in the CFP. Because you'll NEVER let them in if you don't let them in over a 2-loss P5 helmet.

um1963 · « **Reply #52 on:** October 26, 2021, 10:52:33 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 26, 2021, 01:33:18 PM

@um1963 First of all, welcome to CFB51! Always good to see new faces here.

As someone new here, the debate we're having is essentially something that has been rehashed back and forth here over many years, and is a microcosm of the same debate being rehashed across the college football world over the years...

Should the BCS/CFP teams be the "best teams" in the country, or should they be the "most deserving teams" in the country?

I agree with you that a 2-loss Alabama or OSU is the "better" team than any even undefeated G5 team, and is a "better" team than quite a few 1-loss conference champions. That doesn't mean they "deserve" a slot in a 4-team playoff.

The CFP is a balance between best and most deserving. Losing twice means you don't deserve entry to such a rarified field. Even if you're one of the 4 best in the country.

Honestly I don't believe deserving should be part of the conversation, I only wrote that in response to a previous comment. As long as it is call the FBS Playoff Rankings then I expect the best teams to make the playoffs. If they want to veer into deserving then just rename it the FBS Playoff Standings and be done with it. Come the end of the season there is enough data for the committee to look at the teams and ask if a team is really talented enough to play a competitive game in the playoffs.

Schedules are greatly unbalanced, this absolutely has to be taken into consideration. A two loss Alabama or OSU with their schedules in the two toughest divisions is much more impressive than an undefeated Cincy all day every day.

For a mid major to be taken seriously for the playoffs they need a killer OOC schedule and come out on top because their conference schedule is mostly garbage. But at best they schedule one helmet school then whine if they run the table and get left out. That's on their athletic director, not the P5 schools that out perform everyone else year after year, to play a schedule challenging enough to show that they are in fact one of the top four teams in the nation.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #53 on:** October 26, 2021, 10:52:45 PM »

I added @Abba 's vote, doesn't change anything.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #54 on:** October 26, 2021, 11:15:34 PM »

Quote from: um1963 on October 26, 2021, 10:52:33 PM

Honestly I don't believe deserving should be part of the conversation, I only wrote that in response to a previous comment. As long as it is call the FBS Playoff Rankings then I expect the best teams to make the playoffs. If they want to veer into deserving then just rename it the FBS Playoff Standings and be done with it. Come the end of the season there is enough data for the committee to look at the teams and ask if a team is really talented enough to play a competitive game in the playoffs.

Schedules are greatly unbalanced, this absolutely has to be taken into consideration. A two loss Alabama or OSU with their schedules in the two toughest divisions is much more impressive than an undefeated Cincy all day every day.

For a mid major to be taken seriously for the playoffs they need a killer OOC schedule and come out on top because their conference schedule is mostly garbage. But at best they schedule one helmet school then whine if they run the table and get left out. That's on their athletic director, not the P5 schools that out perform everyone else year after year, to play a schedule challenging enough to show that they are in fact one of the top four teams in the nation.

This.

If you want to be included, do what FSU did back in the day and take an "anyone, anywhere" approach to scheduling. Cincy's schedule this year:

8 AAC opponents
An FCS school
Miami, OH
Indiana
Notre Dame

That is absolute garbage. Even if ND is REALLY good it is only one game. Upsets happen, how do we know that wasn't just a really bad day for Notre Dame or a really good day for Cincy or both? We don't and can't because their next best opponent is complete garbage. I have no idea if this ranking is any good but it looks credible enough so I'll use it, here is Cincy's schedule then I'll compare tOSU's:

#8 Notre Dame
#36 SMU
#44 UCF
#57 Indiana
#71 Tulsa
#92 Tulane
#95 Miami, OH
#105 USF
#106 ECU
#112 Temple
#116 Navy
FCS Murray State

Ohio State:

#6 Michigan
#7 MSU
#10 Oregon
#15 PSU
#39 Purdue
#40 Maryland
#51 Minnesota
#57 Indiana
#71 Tulsa
#79 Nebraska
#91 Rutgers
#119 Akron

Purdue is considered an easy week for Ohio State, it is a game that would be embarrassing to lose (ask Iowa). They are the 5th toughest team Ohio State will play this year and roughly equivalent to Cincy's second toughest game.

On top of this, assuming that both Cincy and tOSU make their respective CCG's, tOSU's opponent is likely to be #11 Iowa while Cincy's is likely to be #36 SMU. So with 13 games in the Buckeyes would have played five ranked higher than Cincy's second toughest opponent and two ranked higher than Cincy's toughest opponent. Going 11-2 in the B1G (or SEC or any other P5 league for that matter) is a LOT tougher than going 13-0 against Cincy's schedule.

As pointed out above, this is partially Cincinnati's fault. They chose to schedule an FCS school and a MAC school OOC. Then they chose a historically awful B1G school for their #3 OOC game and only scheduled one OOC game against a team with a pulse.

Want to be included, schedule like you mean it. In 1981 independent FSU went on a five-game road trip of:

@ Nebraska on 9/19
@ Ohio State on 10/3
@ Notre Dame on 10/10
@ Pitt on 10/17 (this was when Pitt was good)
@ LSU on 10/24

They wanted to be included in the NC discussion so they made a contender schedule. They beat tOSU, ND, and LSU but lost to Nebraska and Pitt. At least they tried. When your second best game is against #36 you don't have an argument.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #55 on:** October 26, 2021, 11:22:32 PM »

Quote from: MaximumSam on October 26, 2021, 05:23:16 PM

Gotta say, the logic is poor on this post. You compare 2019 OSU, one of the most statistically dominant teams in college football history, to a good but not great Cincy team that finished 11-3. OSU that year beat every single team they played (besides Clemson) by double digits. You then use that to say any P5 champ deserves a bid over Cincy. So you are saying Pitt, or Wake Forest, automatically deserve a nod over what may be a superior Cincy team, solely because they are in a "superior" conference. Further, OSU won a national championship with a very hairy win over Cincinnati, so even using just those two teams, not sure the comparison holds.

Gotta say you just don't like the facts.

2019 tOSU was really good because the top P5 teams are really good. 2002 tOSU had a lot of close games, so what.

You didn't bother to address the current year fact that when Cincy played IU it was a dogfight. If you watched IU all season you probably shut the tOSU, IA, and PSU games off at halftime when the Hoosiers trailed 44-7, 31-3, and 14-0 respectively. In the Cincy game they led 14-10 at the half.  IU is currently 0-4 in the B1G and Cincy is roughly at their level. If Cincy were a B1G team they wouldn't even be ranked. Instead they are fat on cupcakes and idiots rank them #2.

Why were Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa all able to wipe the floor with Indiana and play backups in the second half while Cincy didn't take their first lead until the third quarter and trailed in the fourth? The answer is obvious if you allow yourself to see it.

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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 8

medinabuckeye1

Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8

medinabuckeye1

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betarhoalphadelta

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medinabuckeye1

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MaximumSam

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Cincydawg

Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8

MaximumSam

Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8

Abba

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Brutus Buckeye

Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8

betarhoalphadelta

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um1963

Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8

medinabuckeye1

Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8

medinabuckeye1

Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8

medinabuckeye1

Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 8