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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 7

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Mdot21

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 7
« Reply #28 on: October 20, 2022, 03:08:58 PM »
I love how SP+ just filters out all of the garbage stats.  Here's an article Conelly wrote about garbage time:

footballstudyhall.com/2017/10/20/16507348/college-football-analytics-game-states

He goes with:


  • All first quarter plays count, no matter the score.
  • Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 36 in the second quarter.
  • Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 26 in the third quarter.
  • Garbage time doesn’t kick in until a team is up 20 in the fourth quarter.

So you've got some work to do, medina.  :)
I don't like those garbage time metrics for any of those quarters. Everything in the 2nd and 3rd QTRs should count. Teams can come back from big deficits.

To me any scores in the last 2 minutes of a game when another team is up at least 2+ TDs should be considered garbage time or any scores when a team is up say 4+ TDs past the 12 min mark the 4th QTR of a game, and that's about it.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 7
« Reply #29 on: October 20, 2022, 03:17:44 PM »
I don't like those garbage time metrics for any of those quarters. Everything in the 2nd and 3rd QTRs should count. Teams can come back from big deficits.

To me any scores in the last 2 minutes of a game when another team is up at least 2+ TDs should be considered garbage time or any scores when a team is up say 4+ TDs past the 12 min mark the 4th QTR of a game, and that's about it.
And this is exactly why I don't delve into this. Everybody has a different definition and if you think about it, it varies by opponent. Iowa's offense is atrocious and everyone knows it. If your team has a 10 point lead in Iowa, that is five scores for the Hawkeyes! At that point, it is garbage time. Conversely, Ohio State probably has the best offense in the game. Would you feel comfortable if your team had a 20 point lead on the Buckeyes at halftime? You'd feel happy, but comfortable, I doubt it. 

Mdot21

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 7
« Reply #30 on: October 20, 2022, 03:39:36 PM »
And this is exactly why I don't delve into this. Everybody has a different definition and if you think about it, it varies by opponent. Iowa's offense is atrocious and everyone knows it. If your team has a 10 point lead in Iowa, that is five scores for the Hawkeyes! At that point, it is garbage time. Conversely, Ohio State probably has the best offense in the game. Would you feel comfortable if your team had a 20 point lead on the Buckeyes at halftime? You'd feel happy, but comfortable, I doubt it.
True lol. I'd never feel comfortable with any amount of lead over Ohio State til the game is over.

With regards to Michigan; Iowa scored down 20 with 8 seconds left in the game. Maryland scored down 15 with 43 seconds left in the game. Are those cheap meaningless garbage time scores in games that were already decided? I tend to think yes.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 7
« Reply #31 on: October 20, 2022, 04:26:10 PM »
True lol. I'd never feel comfortable with any amount of lead over Ohio State til the game is over.

With regards to Michigan; Iowa scored down 20 with 8 seconds left in the game. Maryland scored down 15 with 43 seconds left in the game. Are those cheap meaningless garbage time scores in games that were already decided? I tend to think yes.
Those obviously are but like I said I don't make that adjustment for ANY score because in order to declare those to be "garbage time" you need a consistent definition of "garbage time" and there are going to be differences of opinion and borderline cases so it is just a lot easier for me to go strictly by final MOV.  I figure that if an individual wants to go through and say "yeah but Iowa and UMD scored on Michigan after the game was decided" that is up to them but with the understanding that if you are trying to do that to compare more favorably to Ohio State, the next poster can say "yeah but UW scored two of their three TD's in the fourth quarter while trailing by 38", etc.  

I've always said that MOV is problematic so I definitely agree with that.  My favorite example is two games that Ohio State won.  One over Iowa in the mid-90's that tOSU won by 21 and one over PSU in the 00's that tOSU won by 22:
  • In the mid-90's Iowa game the Buckeyes obliterated the Hawkeyes and, at one point, led 56-0.  The Buckeyes' second-stringers, practice-team guys, cheerleaders, and mascots gave up 35 unanswered points such that the final score was 56-35 but the game was nowhere near that close.  
  • In the 00's PSU game the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions played a VERY hard-fought physical game where the difference came down to four red zone trips, two for each team.  Ohio State punched both of theirs into the endzone while holding PSU to FG's on both of theirs resulting in an eight point 14-6 lead late in the fourth quarter for the Buckeyes.  Upon reaching the point where he absolutely HAD to pass to have any chance of winning, Paterno unleashed his QB and PSU got a bit of a drive going.  It looked like it might be close but then the PSU QB threw a Pick-6 which gave tOSU a 21-6 lead.  After the ensuing kickoff, the PSU QB threw another pick-6 on the very next play resulting in a final score of 28-6 in a game that was MUCH closer than that.  

If I were creating my own relatively simple computer model I think my solution would be this:
  • I'd take the eventual winner's lead at the half (which could be a negative number of the ultimate leader was trailing at halftime).  Then I'd add
  • The eventual winner's lead at the end of the third quarter (again, could be negative).  Then I'd add
  • The final MOV.  
The above would be subject to the following restrictions:
  • If the sum was negative for the winner, the winner would be awarded a 1 point MOV.  
  • If the game went to OT, the winner would be awarded a 1 point MOV regardless of earlier scores and final outcome.  
  • The margins at the half, at the end of the third quarter, and at the end of the game would be capped at 28 points such that the maximum possible MOV would be 84 points (28+28+28), anything beyond that is just a blowout and I don't care how big it is beyond that.  


Mdot21

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 7
« Reply #32 on: October 20, 2022, 05:10:16 PM »
fair enough. I hear ya.

ELA

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 7
« Reply #33 on: October 21, 2022, 12:58:26 PM »
Last week in parentheses

  • MICHIGAN (3) - not sure I'd pick them over OSU, but it's close, and they have the better resume
  • OHIO STATE (1) - bye week
  • PENN STATE (2) - considered dropping them farther, but that would just be recentcy bias
  • ILLINOIS (7) - they clearly look like the best team in the West now
  • MARYLAND (5) - uglier than it should have been road win
  • PURDUE (4) - uglier than it should have been home win
  • IOWA (8) - bye week
  • MINNESOTA (6) - all of the stars aligned for Fleck to finally reach a Big Ten title, and it doesn't look like it's going to happen
  • MICHIGAN STATE (10) - defense got slightly healthier
  • WISCONSIN (9) - Graham Mertz one week renaissance appears to just be a Northwestern thing
  • NEBRASKA (11) - nearly pulled off a road upset
  • INDIANA (12) - nearly pulled off a home upset
  • RUTGERS (13) - bye week
  • NORTHWESTERN (14) - bye week

ELA

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 7
« Reply #34 on: October 21, 2022, 01:08:25 PM »
Composite computer rankings (84 rankings - last week in parenthesis)

  • Georgia (1)
  • Tennessee (5)
  • OHIO STATE (3)
  • MICHIGAN (6)
  • Alabama (2)
  • Clemson (4)
  • Ole Miss (7)
  • TCU (10)
  • USC (8)
  • Texas (13)
  • UCLA (15)
  • PENN STATE (9)
  • Oklahoma State (12)
  • Syracuse (21)
  • Utah (19)
  • Oregon (14)
  • Kansas State (17)
  • Wake Forest (16)
  • ILLINOIS (20)
  • Mississippi State (11)
  • LSU (22)
  • Central Florida (-)
  • Kentucky (-)
  • PURDUE (24)
  • NC State (18)


  • 27. Maryland (26)
  • 32. Minnesota (32)
  • 48. Iowa (52)
  • 64. Wisconsin (54)
  • 67. Michigan State (74)
  • 72. Indiana (73)
  • 85. Nebraska (86)
  • 91. Rutgers (88)
  • 118. Northwestern (115)

ELA

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 7
« Reply #35 on: October 21, 2022, 01:09:47 PM »
I don't like those garbage time metrics for any of those quarters. Everything in the 2nd and 3rd QTRs should count. Teams can come back from big deficits.

To me any scores in the last 2 minutes of a game when another team is up at least 2+ TDs should be considered garbage time or any scores when a team is up say 4+ TDs past the 12 min mark the 4th QTR of a game, and that's about it.
I'd land a little more in the middle.  Everything in the 1st quarter counts.  Up 35+ in the 3rd, or 21+ in the 4th

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 7
« Reply #36 on: October 21, 2022, 02:51:17 PM »
Results posted, votes through @ELA , 12 voters.  


  • We have a tie for 1st/2nd with tOSU and M each getting six votes each for 1st and 2nd place.  
  • We have a tie for 3rd/4th with IL and PSU each getting six votes each for 3rd and 4th place.  

I think that the next two weeks will do a lot to clear things up at least as between those top-4.  Firstly as to tOSU and M:
  • Ohio State plays Iowa this weekend and Michigan already played them so that will be our first common opponent.  
  • Next weekend tOSU plays PSU and M plays MSU which will be our second and third common opponents since M already played PSU and tOSU already played MSU.  
  • It is hard to compare right now because tOSU has the bigger wins (39, 31, and 29 points compared to 24, 21, 13, and 7) but Michigan has the better opponents (#3/4, #6, #8, and #12 compared to #9, #11, and #13).  Over the next two weeks Michigan plays #11 while tOSU plays #8 and #3/4 so the resumes will be much more comparable two weeks from now.  
Secondly as to IL and PSU:
  • PSU has a very tricky potential trap game this weekend against Minnesota.  The Gophers aren't great but they are definitely good enough to knock off PSU if the Nittany Lions come into this game too distracted by last week's blowout loss and next week's major challenge.  Illinois already played Minnesota and beat them by 12 at home so, we'll see.  


FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 7
« Reply #37 on: October 21, 2022, 07:06:24 PM »
OHIO STATE
MICHIGAN
PENN STATE 
ILLINOIS 
PURDUE
Minnesota 
Wisconsin 
Michigan State 
Iowa
Nebraska 
Indiana
Rutgers 
Northwestern
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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