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Topic: When, if ever, will Ohio State catch Michigan in THE GAME

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medinabuckeye1

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When, if ever, will Ohio State catch Michigan in THE GAME
« on: December 11, 2020, 10:57:05 AM »
Hester Ford was born August 15, 1905 in South Carolina and now lives in North Carolina.  

Iris Westman was born August 28, 1905 in North Dakota and still lives there.  

Thelma Sutcliffe was born October 1, 1906 in Nebraska and still lives there.  

Ellen Goodwill was born February 2, 1907 in Kentucky and now lives in Michigan.  

Ellen Goodwill is the youngest of this group at just shy of 114 years.  These are the only four Americans in whose lifetime Ohio State does NOT have a winning record against Michigan:

  • Goodwill was born after the 1906 game but before the 1907 game so in her lifetime the two teams are tied, 51-51-5.  
  • Sutcliffe was born after the 1905 game but before the 1906 game so in her lifetime Michigan leads 52-51-5.  
  • Westman and Ford were born after the 1904 game but before the 1905 game so in their lifetimes Michigan leads 53-51-5.  


Michigan's lead over time:
  • Michigan built up a 12 game lead by going 12-0-2 against the Buckeyes before Ohio State joined the league.  
  • Michigan's lead grew to 13 when they won the first league game between the two in 1918.  
  • Ohio State then won three straight to knock Michigan's lead down to 10 after the 1921 game.  
  • Michigan then won six straight to build their lead up to 16 after the 1927 game.  
  • From then through shortly after WWII Michigan's lead was fairly stable, fluctuating between 12 and 16 games through 1946.  
  • From the late 40's through Woody's third year (1953) Michigan's lead steadily climbed.  It hit a (then) all-time high of 20 games after Woody's first (1951) and third (1953) games.  
  • Over the next 15 years under Woody (and before Bo got to Michigan) Ohio State did VERY well, chipping away at Michigan's lead until it was down to 13 games after the 1968 game.  
  • Over the next 19 years (the Ten Year War between Woody and Bo and Earle Bruce's nine years against Bo) the two teams were dead even at 9-9-1.  Michigan's lead fluctuated between 11 and 14 games and was still at 13 games after Earle Bruce's Buckeyes upset Bo's Wolverines in Earle Bruce's last game, in 1987.  
  • Then John Cooper happened.  When he took over the Buckeyes trailed Michigan by 13 games, 33-46-5 through 1987.  Cooper went 2-10-1 over 13 years which allowed Michigan's lead to balloon up to 21 games, their largest ever after Cooper's last loss in 2000.  
  • Since Cooper was fired it has been all Ohio State.  Michigan's 21 game lead after the 2000 game is now down to seven at 58-51-6.  

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MarqHusker

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Re: When, if ever, will Ohio State catch Michigan in THE GAME
« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2020, 11:00:45 AM »
Before OU catches Texas should be an option.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: When, if ever, will Ohio State catch Michigan in THE GAME
« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2020, 11:24:45 AM »
I picked 17-25, but I had to make the assumption that OSU didn't strike gold with three coaches in a row. 

Day so far looks the part, but he inherited a program that was humming, and it remains to be seen if he can maintain it when it's all his own. 

If Day is the real deal, then it IMHO is 8-12. 
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FearlessF

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Re: When, if ever, will Ohio State catch Michigan in THE GAME
« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2020, 11:31:35 AM »
I'm at 8-12

probably close to 12, but....

Day has things going very well right now.

Michigan is ready to pull the plug on their coach.

Even if Michigan finds the next great coach, it will be hard for them to match the Buckeyes the next 3-4 seasons.

By then the Bucks are only down 3 or 4 games with 8 seasons to go to get to 12.

unless Day falls apart and screws up the program (some type of scandal) it's going to be very hard for the next Michigan coach to win 50%.

Harbaugh certainly can't do that.
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ELA

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Re: When, if ever, will Ohio State catch Michigan in THE GAME
« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2020, 11:52:55 AM »
Eh, good luck.  My dad commented that the UM-MSU rivalry (prior to this year) had "shifted back to the correct balance of power."  In his lifetime, UM holds a 38-31-2 edge.

He must be remembering those UM vs. Michigan Agricultural College games from the 1920s fondly
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: When, if ever, will Ohio State catch Michigan in THE GAME
« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2020, 11:54:08 AM »
Probably never, if they keep vacating and cancelling THE GAMEs. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: When, if ever, will Ohio State catch Michigan in THE GAME
« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2020, 11:59:22 AM »
I'm with @bwarbiany and @FearlessF pending two things:

  • Is Day Ohio State's third straight A+ pick at HC (after Tressel and Meyer)?  
  • What will happen with Michigan's coaching situation?  

As @bwarbiany said, Day looks the part so far but it is too early to tell if he is simply our version of Larry Coker (inherited a program that was in phenomenal shape and slowly regressed as it became more "his" and less his predecessor's).  if Day is Ohio State's third straight A+ coaching hire then even @FearlessF 's 8-12, closer to 12 may be too long.  It is likely to be seven years (7-0), nine years (8-1), or 11 years (9-2).  OTOH, if he is Larry Coker and Michigan hits a home run replacing Harbaugh then even @bwarbiany 's 17-25 may not be long enough.  

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: When, if ever, will Ohio State catch Michigan in THE GAME
« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2020, 12:27:19 PM »
I haven't seen UM's next HC hire mentioned, which is just as big.  First of all, how would you rate Harbaugh?  B?  UM is certainly more on the national radar, but not always for great reasons.  He has yet to field a sub-3 loss team in AA.  No matter how bad the program was before he got there, I can't give him an A without at least one elite season.

If OSU is unlikely (by the odds) to have 3 HR hires in a row, isn't UM unlikely to miss out on a great hire again?  Bo was around .800, Moeller and Carr kept it at .750, then RR fell off a cliff to .400.  Hoke back up to .600, but wasn't good enough.  Harbaugh's got them right at .700.  
As .750+ HCs don't grow on trees, is a program like UM any more likely than anyone else to grab that lightning in a bottle with an elite HC?  Less likely, with pressure, a downturn or plateau, etc?  
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: When, if ever, will Ohio State catch Michigan in THE GAME
« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2020, 12:30:51 PM »
Spurrier had a great quote about Florida's rivalry with Georgia, being something like 25 games behind in the all-time series when he was hired.  When asked how the Gators would catch up competitively with the Dawgs, he started with, "Well, 25 years is a long time, but..."

And he backed it up, going 11-1 vs UGA.  As it stands, the Gators are 8-9 wins behind (depending who you ask).  You just have to play the long game and have an all-time great HC.  What's the problem? lol
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MarqHusker

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Re: When, if ever, will Ohio State catch Michigan in THE GAME
« Reply #9 on: December 11, 2020, 01:24:25 PM »
Subject makes me think of people who keep telling us that Value (stocks) will eventually make their triumphant return,  relative to growth.  Will they? 
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