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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 5

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #42 on: November 24, 2020, 11:59:52 AM »
Results posted, votes through @SFBadger96 , 15 voters. 

I want to talk about this chart for a minute:



I call it the COTY/Hot Seat Chart.  Buckeye Fans often complain that Ohio State's coach basically never wins COTY.  It doesn't bother me.  COTY is basically an award for the coach of the team that most exceeded expectations.  Thus, Ohio State's coach is effectively ineligible because expectations in Columbus are so high that they can't be exceeded by enough to win this award. 

This chart is a comparison of preseason power ranking to current power ranking.  The teams on the left (in the positive) led by Maryland at 5.97 are substantially exceeding preseason expectations.  The teams on the right (in the negative) "led" by Penn State at -8.30 are substantially trailing preseason expectations. 

If your team is on the left, your coach is in the running for COTY.  If your team is on the right then your coach should probably rent rather than buy a home in town. 

What stands out to me is that I don't ever remember seeing a team as badly trailing preseason expectations as Penn State is right now.  They started out ranked #2 and it was nearly unanimous (their average was 2.10 so barely below #2) and now they are tied with MSU for dead last. 

Viewing the season as a whole, I think that PSU is underrated.  Their 13 point loss to tOSU and their OT loss to IU are the second best performances all year against those two teams (worse only than IU against tOSU and tOSU against IU).  However, the trend is alarming to say the least and the fact that they still haven't won a game is obviously beyond problematic.  In the three games since those first two they have:

  • A 16 point home loss to Maryland.  This is, by far, Maryland's biggest win of the year as their other was an OT win over Minnesota at home.  Worst performance so far this year against Maryland. 
  • A seven point loss to Nebraska.  This is Nebraska's only win of the year.  Worst performance so far this year against Nebraska. 
  • A 20 point home loss to Iowa.  This is better in that Iowa has done better against two teams (42 point win vs MSU, 28 point win @MN) but it is still a three possession home loss. 

Looking at this chart I feel like PSU/M is close to a must-win for both coaches:
  • With a loss PSU would drop to 0-6.  Even if they won in Picastaway and beat MSU they'd only finish 2-6 after starting the year as the presumed primary challenger to Ohio State in not only the B1G-E, but the whole league. 
  • With a loss M would drop to 2-4.  That is better than PSU, obviously, but Michigan also has a tougher remaining schedule with a visit from Maryland and a trip to Columbus remaining.  Thus, if they lose to PSU the Wolverines can't finish .500 without beating both Maryland and Ohio State.

« Last Edit: November 24, 2020, 03:45:56 PM by medinabuckeye1 »
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TyphonInc

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #43 on: November 24, 2020, 01:01:31 PM »
Quote from: Benthere2 on November 22, 2020, 05:47:22 PM

2. Northwestern- defense does win championships
Not according to Saban
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ELA

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #44 on: November 24, 2020, 01:03:49 PM »
Quote from: TyphonInc on November 24, 2020, 01:01:31 PM
Not according to Saban
It can win division championships...in the right division :57:
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #45 on: November 24, 2020, 01:05:15 PM »
Quote from: TyphonInc on November 24, 2020, 01:01:31 PM
Not according to Saban
how did Saban do in the Big Ten?
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #46 on: November 24, 2020, 01:07:15 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 24, 2020, 11:59:52 AM
  

Looking at this chart I feel like PSU/M is close to a must-win for both coaches:
  • With a loss PSU would drop to 0-6.  Even if they won in Picastaway and beat MSU they'd only finish 2-6 after starting the year as the presumed primary challenger to Ohio State in not only the B1G-E, but the whole league. 
  • With a loss M would drop to 3-3.  That is better than PSU, obviously, but Michigan also has a tougher remaining schedule with a visit from Maryland and a trip to Columbus remaining. 



Well they are 2-3 now, so a loss would actually drop them to 2-4.

It would take a win in order to propel them to 3-3. 

Probably just a typo, but we cannot be gifting the Wolverines a win here. :111:
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MrNubbz

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #47 on: November 24, 2020, 01:17:01 PM »
HA!You're a cold man BB
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #48 on: November 24, 2020, 02:32:25 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 24, 2020, 01:07:15 PM
Well they are 2-3 now, so a loss would actually drop them to 2-4.

It would take a win in order to propel them to 3-3.

Probably just a typo, but we cannot be gifting the Wolverines a win here. :111:
My bad, fixed.
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Hawkinole

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #49 on: November 25, 2020, 12:38:53 AM »
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 24, 2020, 10:43:41 AM
In the OSU game, Fryfogle and Wade were hand fighting all the way down the field.  At the last second the WR grabbed the front collar of Wade , threw him to the ground, caught the pass and went in for TD.  They actually called Wade for PI!

Michigan got a similar PI call in the end zone late v Rutgers.  Was clearly offensive PI- but was called on defender. 

They rarely get offensive PI right.
When we were kids that kind of contact, i.e. hand-fighting was unthought-of, as anything other than a penalty. Forty-five years later, I think, maybe I should have challenged the officials, as they may not see, or may not have the willingness to pull the flag. 
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MrNubbz

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #50 on: November 25, 2020, 06:58:11 AM »
Officials more often than not called contact once the ball was in the air on either side as I remember it.....when I still played and conestogas were crossing the prarie
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #51 on: November 25, 2020, 09:51:42 AM »
yup, back in the good old daze, if the defender touched the receiver whilst the ball was in the air, the flag came out.

on the other hand, once the ball touched the receiver, the defender could shatter his helmet nearly killing the receiver w/o penalty
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Abba

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #52 on: November 25, 2020, 10:28:22 AM »
Yeah, I think things have gone to far with hand fighting.  I'm sick of watching a WR have his arm held and be forced to try a one-handed catch on a deep ball with no penalty flag.
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #53 on: November 25, 2020, 10:40:37 AM »
Ed Zachery

although, this doesn't seem to keep offenses from putting up bigger and bigger numbers
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #54 on: November 25, 2020, 12:48:21 PM »
Quote from: Abba on November 25, 2020, 10:28:22 AM
Yeah, I think things have gone to far with hand fighting.  I'm sick of watching a WR have his arm held and be forced to try a one-handed catch on a deep ball with no penalty flag.
Honestly on the Durham TD catch, you could have called the DB for DPI if you're going to call him for OPI. The DB grabbed his arm and held him up too. 
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