header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2

 (Read 11113 times)

Entropy

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1432
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
« Reply #70 on: September 12, 2018, 09:56:36 AM »
tough to play a ball state the week after an emotional win..  We should know more after next week

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37524
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
« Reply #71 on: September 12, 2018, 10:00:22 AM »
we all know a little more after each week

and at the end of the season we still don't know jack
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

JerseyTerrapin

  • Red Shirt
  • ***
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 189
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
« Reply #72 on: September 12, 2018, 10:14:25 AM »
Yes. I can't extend my gratitude enough, for Medina allowing us the use of his analytical brain.
Not just this, but breaking down the various tie breakers, and telling us what would need to happen in order for a team to win their division no matter how absurd it may be.
Plus basketball season, which teams only play once and where that game will take place, projecting wins and losses based on his tier system, the Big Ten Tourney tie breakers, what needs to happen in order for two teams to wind up on the same branch of the bracket, and so forth.
I don't know if he memorizes all that stuff, or programs it all into a series of spreadsheets. Either way, amazing talent. Thanks again for sharing it with us.
Yeah, I decided a long time ago that Medina is one of the smartest people I've ever "met."  Thanks, man, you helped me learn to speak B1Gese...

mcwterps1

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3152
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
« Reply #73 on: September 12, 2018, 10:49:08 AM »
Occasionally I view Jeff Sagarin's rankings. https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

He has Ohio State 2nd, and right on Alabama's heels.

Big Ten teams follow:


2  Ohio State
5  Penn State
8  Wisconsin
12  Michigan (He can't see my wisdom in Big Ten #4 Indiana)
14  Iowa
21  Michigan State
40  Maryland
43  Northwestern
46  Minnesota
53  Nebraska
63  Indiana
71  Purdue
93  Illinois
107  Rutgers


Others of interest (to me):

23  Notre Dame
29  North Dakota State (They beat FBS team #178 Cal Poly, hmm.)
33  Florida State

You're not allowed to use those for anything though. 
In the bylaws. 

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
« Reply #74 on: September 12, 2018, 11:42:37 AM »
Yes. I can't extend my gratitude enough, for Medina allowing us the use of his analytical brain.
Not just this, but breaking down the various tie breakers, and telling us what would need to happen in order for a team to win their division no matter how absurd it may be.
Plus basketball season, which teams only play once and where that game will take place, projecting wins and losses based on his tier system, the Big Ten Tourney tie breakers, what needs to happen in order for two teams to wind up on the same branch of the bracket, and so forth.
I don't know if he memorizes all that stuff, or programs it all into a series of spreadsheets. Either way, amazing talent. Thanks again for sharing it with us.
Yeah, I decided a long time ago that Medina is one of the smartest people I've ever "met."  Thanks, man, you helped me learn to speak B1Gese...
Thank you both.  
As far as tiebreakers that is mostly just going to the B1G website and working through them.  I find those to be fun logic problems.  When you do that a few times you quickly learn that details that seem minute can be huge.  For example, in the B1G there is a rule for multi-team ties that if all but two are eliminated you go back to H2H for those two.  
FWIW: the basketball tier system isn't mine.  It was a site thing that I think @ELA started, I just put it into a projection.  Before I found that here I had a similar system that I used myself.  Mine didn't have tiers, I just ranked the teams (1 to 11 back then) and then projected that the home team would always win unless the road team was at least three spots higher.  Example:
  • I projected that #1, #2, and #3 would win all home games.  
  • I projected that #4 would lose a home game against #1 and win all the others, etc.  
I came up with that because I always hated how the idiots on TV would talk about how Ohio State was really slumping or surging based on a few losses or wins that were pretty obviously predictable.  The tier system and my system eliminated that because we compare to projections instead of just looking at W's and L's as if they were all created equal.  

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
« Reply #75 on: September 12, 2018, 11:46:29 AM »
You're not allowed to use those for anything though.
In the bylaws.
Oh you can use whatever you like.  Go ahead and post rankings if you want, just don't get so upset when people question your rankings.  There are a few things that you need to realize:
  • It takes a while for us to get used to your system.  For example, IIRC, you start out treating all wins as better than all losses.  I disagree.  If Maryland had lost in OT to Bama back in week one while MSU and PSU were barely escaping teams that they should have throttled I would have considered Maryland's performance to be better than MSU's and PSU's.  Now that I know that you do that consistently it doesn't make me ask questions.  
  • If your system seems to always favor your team then yeah, people are going to call that out.  
  • Anytime your vote is an extreme outlier (see @Hawkinole above) you are likely to get questioned about it.  

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
« Reply #76 on: September 12, 2018, 11:52:14 AM »
FWIW:
The sagrin rankings that @Hawkinole posted above are pretty close to ours with only two exceptions:
  • We both have tOSU at #1.  
  • He has PSU at #2, we have them at #3.  
  • He has UW at #3, we them at #2.  
  • We both have M at #4.  
  • He has Iowa at #5, we have them at #6.  
  • He has MSU at #6, we have them at #5.  
  • We both have UMD at #7.  
  • He has NU at #8, we have them at #11.  
  • We both have MN at #9.  
  • We both have UNL at #10.  
  • He has IU at #11, we have them at #8.  
  • We both have PU at #12.  
  • He has IL at #13, we have them at #14.  
  • He has RU at #14, we have them at #13.  

So Sagrin has Northwestern a lot higher and Indiana a lot lower than we do but otherwise we are +/-1.  

TyphonInc

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1930
  • Easily Amused
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
« Reply #77 on: September 12, 2018, 12:21:29 PM »
 
Second, I think we see the flaws in our own teams more clearly than we see the flaws in other teams.  
This is the group I fall into. I watch every home game at the stadium, then pour over the DVR rewatching the whole thing again. I typically catch two other games then just watch the highlights for the rest.
Highlights show us the best of a team. Me rewatching Haskins overthrow Campbell and then rewind and do it 6 more times, magnifies the mistakes, on an otherwise  impressive day.


medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
« Reply #78 on: September 12, 2018, 12:23:29 PM »
Well, Iowa did play the top 3 teams in the East last year. Won one, and lost another on the last play of the game.
FTR, UW also posted a losing record vs teams in the East Top 3 (0-1) in 2017.
I think this is a difficult metric to use because there are so few games.  Looking at what Badge posted:
  • Illinois was equal against the B1G-E and B1G-W.  0-season
  • Nebraska was equal against the B1G-E and B1G-W.  .333 against both
  • Wisconsin was equal against the B1G-E and B1G-W.  1.000 against both not counting CG
  • Northwestern was slightly worse against the B1G-E.  They went 2-1 against the East and 5-1 against the West so they would have been equal if they had lost one more B1G-W game.  Note that they had TWO OT wins in B1G-W games, Iowa and Nebraska.  
  • Purdue was worse against the B1G-E.  They were 1-2 against the B1G-E and 3-3 against the B1G-W so they would have been equal if they had lost one more B1G-W game.  
  • Minnesota was worse against the B1G-E.  They were 0-3 against the East and 2-4 against the West so they would have been equal if they had won one more B1G-E game.  Note that they lost to MSU by a FG and to UMD by a TD.  
  • Iowa was worse against the B1G-E.  They were 1-2 against the East and 4-2 against the West so they would have been equal if they had won one more B1G-E game.  As you pointed out they played the three best B1G-E teams, beat the best one and lost the other two by two and seven points.  

In addition to it being so few games there is another potential problem with this metric.  To explain it, I'll use the example of HS tennis.  A friend of mine played HS tennis and you wouldn't think that there would be a lot of cheating in HS tennis but there is.  The way it is set up, each team is supposed to have their #1 play the other team's #1, then their #2 play the other team's #2 and their #3 play the other team's #3.  The cheating is basically ubiquitous because the easy way to get an advantage is to have your #3 play the other team's #1 then your #1 can play the other team's #2 and your #2 can play the other team's #3.  Even if their #1 is better than your #1 and their #2 is better than your #2 and their #3 is better than your #3 you can still get a 2-1 win as long as your #1 is better than their #2 and your #2 is better than their #3.  

The same thing can happen here.  If the worst teams in the B1G-W play the best teams in the B1G-E then the rest of the B1G-W teams can all potentially play B1G-E teams that are slightly worse than they are even if the B1G-E is better top-to-bottom.  

I think in general that these things balance out over enough games but that takes at least 3-4 seasons so looking at single-season results should always be treated as nothing more than a starting point.  

Honestbuckeye

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 5796
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
« Reply #79 on: September 12, 2018, 12:44:40 PM »
Medina is the Bomb.   

This place would not be nearly as good without him.  The guy knows how to leverage facts an Data.  
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

LittlePig

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1365
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
« Reply #80 on: September 12, 2018, 03:50:48 PM »
I have seen this mistake a couple times in this thread.  

Iowa was only 3-3 last year against the West, not 4-2 as reported above,   Iowa lost to NW, Wisc, and Purdue last year.

So last year Iowa was only 4-5 in conference overall.  Going 1-2 against the East and 3-3 against the West.

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
« Reply #81 on: September 12, 2018, 04:04:58 PM »
I have seen this mistake a couple times in this thread.  

Iowa was only 3-3 last year against the West, not 4-2 as reported above,   Iowa lost to NW, Wisc, and Purdue last year.

So last year Iowa was only 4-5 in conference overall.  Going 1-2 against the East and 3-3 against the West.
I think it was one mistake quoted multiple times.  I didn't double-check the originally cited figures.  
As for my post that doesn't change a lot.  1-2/3-3 means that they would have been equal if they had lost one more B1G-W game.  

iahawk15

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 650
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
« Reply #82 on: September 12, 2018, 06:11:01 PM »
I think this is a difficult metric to use because there are so few games.  Looking at what Badge posted:
  • Illinois was equal against the B1G-E and B1G-W.  0-season
  • Nebraska was equal against the B1G-E and B1G-W.  .333 against both
  • Wisconsin was equal against the B1G-E and B1G-W.  1.000 against both not counting CG
  • Northwestern was slightly worse against the B1G-E.  They went 2-1 against the East and 5-1 against the West so they would have been equal if they had lost one more B1G-W game.  Note that they had TWO OT wins in B1G-W games, Iowa and Nebraska.  
  • Purdue was worse against the B1G-E.  They were 1-2 against the B1G-E and 3-3 against the B1G-W so they would have been equal if they had lost one more B1G-W game.  
  • Minnesota was worse against the B1G-E.  They were 0-3 against the East and 2-4 against the West so they would have been equal if they had won one more B1G-E game.  Note that they lost to MSU by a FG and to UMD by a TD.  
  • Iowa was worse against the B1G-E.  They were 1-2 against the East and 4-2 against the West so they would have been equal if they had won one more B1G-E game.  As you pointed out they played the three best B1G-E teams, beat the best one and lost the other two by two and seven points.  

In addition to it being so few games there is another potential problem with this metric.  To explain it, I'll use the example of HS tennis.  A friend of mine played HS tennis and you wouldn't think that there would be a lot of cheating in HS tennis but there is.  The way it is set up, each team is supposed to have their #1 play the other team's #1, then their #2 play the other team's #2 and their #3 play the other team's #3.  The cheating is basically ubiquitous because the easy way to get an advantage is to have your #3 play the other team's #1 then your #1 can play the other team's #2 and your #2 can play the other team's #3.  Even if their #1 is better than your #1 and their #2 is better than your #2 and their #3 is better than your #3 you can still get a 2-1 win as long as your #1 is better than their #2 and your #2 is better than their #3.  

The same thing can happen here.  If the worst teams in the B1G-W play the best teams in the B1G-E then the rest of the B1G-W teams can all potentially play B1G-E teams that are slightly worse than they are even if the B1G-E is better top-to-bottom.  

I think in general that these things balance out over enough games but that takes at least 3-4 seasons so looking at single-season results should always be treated as nothing more than a starting point.  
I don't mean to undermine your effort, but of course it's a silly metric in such a small sample size. My similarly small sample size was intended to be used as nothing more than suggestion for one to check the fragility of their own house before casting stones at others.

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25215
  • Liked:
Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
« Reply #83 on: September 12, 2018, 06:20:59 PM »
If you can't see the year-over-year improvement at Madison, I can't help you. The staff is really doing a great job up there. 
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.