I will concede that you did a much more detailed analysis than I ever will on this subject, but if you look at Indiana's scores from 2020 it just doesn't jive with your conclusion.
Vs PSU 36-35 (OT)
@ Rut 37-21
Vs Mich 38-21
@MSU 24-0
@OSU 35-42
MD 27-11
@Wisc 14-6
That's 4 victories by at least 16 points and a solid 8 point victory @Wisc. The only victory you might call a fluke is the PSU victory in OT.
I think by every important measure Indiana was a good team last year in 2020, and with the number of returning starters in 2021, it makes perfect sense to me why Indiana was ranked at the start of this season.
With that said, indiana did lose its bowl game and it did lose its first game in 2021 34-6, so I get why the doubters have come out. But we will see soon for sure, they play Cincinatti in 2 days. If they get blown out by Cincy the same way they lost to Iowa, I will concede that they were overrated THIS year.
The reason I did the analysis I did was specifically because of that statement that you make that I've bolded.
If you're looking at wins and losses, and score differentials, they look like a pretty good team.
And if that's what you consider to be the "important measure", and there's a VERY strong argument that it should be given that no measurement carries more weight than a W at the end of the game, and a lot more Ws than Ls at the end of the season, I could agree.
But that's why I posted this:
Indiana in 2020...
- Yards per play: 5.05 / Opponent yards per play: 5.52
- First downs: 162 / Opponent first downs: 161
- Penalties: 34 (358 yards) / Opponent penalties: 60 (566 yards)
- Indiana turnover margin: 8 (one per game in the shortened season)
- Fourth down conversion: 53.33% (8 of 15) / Opponent: 30.77% (4 of 13)
- Red Zone conversion: 82.86% (29 of 35) / Opponent: 64% (16 of 25)
- FG%: 90.9% (10 of 11) / Opponent: 41.7% (5 of 12)
Statistically, Indiana wasn't a particularly amazing team.
They did a few things well. They got a lot of interceptions (17) while not throwing many (5), which gave them an excellent turnover margin (despite being -4 in fumbles lost relative to opponent). They got a very high 4th down conversion rate. They held their opponents to surprisingly low red zone percentage,
and a surprisingly low FG percentage. And of course there's a significant difference in penalties.
I'd argue, however, that many of those stats--which were probably the difference between a 6-2 and 4-4 or 3-5 record--are not sustainable year over year.
Fool's gold, IMHO.
Now, those are not all the relevant statistics, only the ones I saw that really stood out. However I picked them because they somewhat stand out, and because a lot of those are highly correlated to W/L but may or may not be sustainable season to season.
- Yards per play and opponent yards per play show a team that should be even to slightly behind their opponents, and do not correlate with the final scores of those games and a 6-1 record in conference.
- The penalty differential could indicate a well-coached, highly-disciplined football team. Or it could be luck.
- The turnover margin could be caused by defensive scheme, but as I pointed out, particularly with INTs it doesn't correlate with any past season for IU with Tom Allen as coach, so I don't see a reason that it is sustainable. I also pointed out in a follow-up comment that their TO margin was positive in all 6 wins, and negative in their 2 losses (OSU + bowl). TO margin is one of the LARGEST correlations to winning.
- 4th down conversion and red zone conversion differences could indicate a really good defensive scheme, but we have already seen that IU gave up higher YPP that it earned, and only gave up 1 fewer first down than they made themselves, a wash. Maybe it's a "bend but don't break" defense? I dunno--they broke a lot in past seasons...
- Opponent FG percentage is just random chance. You can't expect opponents to kick at 41.7% in future seasons.
I maintain that in football,
Success = Coaching + Talent + LuckI think 2020 IU had good coaching, and a
lot of luck, but I don't think they're anywhere near the talent level they need to be ranked. They still have good coaching, but it would be reasonable to think that 2021 won't have the same luck as 2020.
In the
247 talent composite rankings, IU is currently 8th in the conference (6th in the B1G-E). The gap from 8th to 13th in the conference is 35 points. The gap from 8th to 6th in the conference is 40 points, to 4th/5th is about 80 points, to 2nd/3rd is about 160 points, and to OSU in 1st is 320 points.
IU was ranked preseason because those doing the rankings are lazy.
