Finally, the 2-5 conundrum. So far there are 15 voters and 2-5 are all within 0.5:
- 3.40 Minnesota, range of 2-6
- 3.47 Wisconsin, range of 2-5
- 3.47 Penn State, range of 2-5
- 3.87 Michigan, range of 2-6
In all the years I have been doing this compilation I don't think there have ever been four teams that close this late in the season.
It is close for a reason. In games against each other, the home team has won by one score with the exception of Wisconsin's big win over Michigan.
Only two have played #1 (PSU, UW). Both lost in Columbus, PSU was closer than UW*.
All four have won all games against everybody else in the conference except:
- Minnesota lost by one score at Iowa
- Wisconsin lost by one score at Illinois.
That is just really tough to sort out.
*Wisconsin and Penn State vs Ohio State:
Looking at final scores, the Badgers lost by 31 while the Nittany Lions only lost by 11. Actually watching the games, they felt completely different:
The tOSU/Wisconsin game felt like a close game for most of the first three quarters. Ohio State led by only 10 at the half, by only a FG early in the third quarter and by only 10 until late in the third quarter. Then it turned into a blowout with Ohio State scoring 21 points in the last 22 minutes to turn a competitive 10 point game into a 31 point wipe out.
The tOSU/PSU game felt like a blowout early. The Buckeyes led 14-0 at the half (bigger than the lead over UW) and 21-0 early in the third quarter (again bigger than at the same time against UW). Then PSU scored 17 points in a four minutes to turn what looked like it was shaping up to be a complete blowout into a competitive four point game. After that Ohio State scored the final TD to achieve the 11 point final margin.
As I see it:
- Wisconsin has the best win (blowout over M) but also the worst loss (at IL). Those kinda cancel each other out IMHO.
- The next best win is probably PSU's road win at Iowa.
- The next worst loss is Michigan's blowout loss to UW.
Thus, I think the order for 2-5 should be:
- 2 PSU: Road win at Iowa, closer in Columbus than UW, no bad losses.
- 3 UW: Great win over M somewhat negated by the bad loss at IL.
- 4 MN: No really good wins or really bad losses, basically all as expected.
- 5 M: Bad loss to UW, no really good wins.