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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 10
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grillrat · « **Reply #14 on:** November 07, 2021, 06:57:22 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 07, 2021, 09:41:00 AM

7. Nebraska
8. Purdue

Ok, I'll bite. By what possible metric are you justifying this one?
I mean, if this was a case where the two hadn't played already, I could maybe understand the whole "Nebraska is the best 3-6 team in the nation" rhetoric, but Purdue is now 6-3 with a head to head win against Nebraska. So what gives?

FearlessF · « **Reply #15 on:** November 07, 2021, 07:30:30 PM »

cause the Husker unis look a little like the Dawg's?

FearlessF · « **Reply #16 on:** November 07, 2021, 07:34:05 PM »

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Wisconsin
4. Purdue
5. Michigan State
6. Iowa
7. Penn State
8. Illinois
9. Minnesota
10. Nebraska
11. Northwestern
12. Maryland
13. Rutgers
14. Indiana

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #17 on:** November 07, 2021, 11:57:17 PM »

Purdue isn't 4th or 5th in the conference. They're mid pack and got some great wins but also have some not great losses and close games against teams well below them in the standings.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #18 on:** November 08, 2021, 01:28:50 AM »

Quote from: FearlessF on November 07, 2021, 07:30:30 PM

cause the Husker unis look a little like the Dawg's?

Nebraksa's like a cornered rat, while Purdue is all fat and happy with a couple of upsets already under their belt.

FearlessF · « **Reply #19 on:** November 08, 2021, 10:09:52 AM »

relegated to hoping for upsets

ELA · « **Reply #20 on:** November 08, 2021, 10:22:35 AM »

Last week in parenthesis

OHIO STATE (1) - not pretty, but none of the top teams have looked good against Nebraska
MICHIGAN (3) - solid bounceback
MICHIGAN STATE (2) - the bend but don't break defense finally snapped against a team that was finishing drives
WISCONSIN (5) - is it finally coming all together?
PENN STATE (4) - being tied in the 4th quarter against Maryland is not ideal
PURDUE (8) - when they know you are going to almost exclusively pass, and you can still do it?
IOWA (7) - why now do you choose to throw the ball 32 times?
MINNESOTA (6) - everything was aligned for a division title, and you lose home games to Bowling Green and Illinois?
NEBRASKA (10) - another "almost"
MARYLAND (9) - completely melted down after tying Penn State early in the 4th
ILLINOIS (12) - this team really wants that Rutgers game back
RUTGERS (11) - this team would prefer not to play Illinois again
INDIANA (13) - the wheels have completely come off
NORTHWESTERN (14) - defense fought hard at least

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #21 on:** November 08, 2021, 12:15:37 PM »

Not my ranking, just for information/consideration.

Rankings based on MOV against each B1G team in league games:

1.58 Ohio State
2.42 Wisconsin
3.00 Minnesota
3.00 Purdue
3.21 Nebraska
3.50 Penn State
3.92 Michigan
4.36 Iowa
4.36 Illinois
4.42 Michigan State
5.00 Rutgers
5.58 Indiana
5.75 Maryland
5.75 Northwestern

Method:

Illinois and Nebraska have each played seven league games. Their opponents are each ranked 1-7 based on scoring differential against. Ie, UW gets a "1" for their 24 point win over Illinois because no other team has beaten the Illini by more than that.
The other 12 B1G teams have each played six league games. Their opponents are each ranked 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, through 6.5 in order of scoring differential against. Ie, PU gets a "1.5" for their 11 point win over MSU because no other team has beaten the Spartans by more than that (or at all for that matter).
Where ties occur the scores are averaged. Ie, PSU and UNL each get a "2" for their 9 point losses to tOSU because that is tied for the best performance against tOSU so far and otherwise first would get a 1.5 and second would get a 2.5.

Things that jump out:
WISCONSIN:
The Badgers have an odd profile here. They are best of seven against Illinois and best of six against IA, PU, and RU even surpassing tOSU against RU. In their other two games, however, they are a mess. They are fourth of six against both Michigan and Penn State. So they are either really good (four games) or bad (two games). This LOOKS like a chronological issue. Penn State was their first game of the season while Michigan was their fourth game overall and second league game. Those two look terrible and their four more recent league games look great.

NEBRASKA:
They look good on this metric because they lose close to basically everybody and a number of their opponents are good enough such that losing close to them "looks" good:

No B1G team has beaten tOSU and UNL's 9 point loss is tied with PSU for best against tOSU so far.
Only PU has beaten MSU and UNL's OT loss to MSU is second best after that.
Only MSU has beaten M and UNL's 3 point loss is second best after that.
Their one win was BY FAR the biggest win against Northwestern. They beat the Wildcats by 49 points and while lots of teams have beaten NU this year, the next biggest MoV was by Minnesota at barely over half of that.

MICHIGAN STATE:
Nobody (even me) is going to rank the Spartans 10th or lower even after the loss to Purdue but that is where they rank on this metric. I don't think they are actually as bad as this metric suggests but I do think that they aren't as good as most people will rank them this week and they obviously were not as good as most people ranked them last week.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #22 on:** November 08, 2021, 12:17:27 PM »

The biggest conundrum for me this week is Wisconsin. Looking at their last few games I frankly think that right now they are possibly/probably the second best team in the league behind only Ohio State. OTOH, it is hard to justify ranking them ahead of PSU and M when they lost to both of those teams and even harder when both losses were at home and even harder when one of those losses was by 21 points.

grillrat · « **Reply #23 on:** November 08, 2021, 12:55:05 PM »

I think part of the problem here is that the East has 4 REALLY good teams, and 3 REALLY bad teams. The West on the other hand has 4 pretty good teams, 2 decent teams, and only one real stinker.
It makes things kinda hard to figure out. Is the East just really that much better than the West, or have they just had the benefit of feasting on Indiana / Rutgers / Maryland.

The end of this season is going to be bonkers.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #24 on:** November 08, 2021, 03:53:16 PM »

Rankings preview, votes through @ELA , 10 voters:

1.00 tOSU
2.10 M
3.40 UW
3.90 MSU
5.30 PU
6.10 PSU
6.60 IA
8.80 MN
9.20 UNL
9.30 IL
10.70 UMD
12.30 NU
13.10 IU
13.20 RU

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #25 on:** November 08, 2021, 04:10:42 PM »

Ohio State - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 I do not think it is close.
Michigan - 3,2,2,3,3,3,3,5,5,5 I have them ahead of UW mostly because they beat UW by three TD's but that said I wouldn't be very confident that they would beat UW on a neutral field now.
Wisconsin - 4,4,5,5,5,7,4,3,3,2 I've been saying for weeks that Wisconsin was better than their record. They sure looked like it this week! If they keep looking this good I'll move them up to at least #2 even if nobody ahead of them loses.
Penn State - 5,6,3,4,4,2,2,2,2,3 Odd team.
Michigan State - 2,5,6,6,6,8,7,9,9,11 I've been saying for weeks that I thought MSU was overrated. Then last week I finally moved them up to #2 and . . . I should have held out a week.
Iowa - 6,3,4,2,2,4,5,4,4,4 As good as they once appeared in their last three games they got spanked by PU and UW and barely survived NU.
Purdue - 8,9,8,12,12,11,11,11,11,10 They've pulled a couple big upsets this year but a win this weekend would be bigger than both of those combined. Ohio State hasn't lost a league game since . . . October of 2018 in West Lafayette, the last time they played PU.
Minnesota - 7,7,7,10,10,9,6,8,6,7 How can you be good enough to run with tOSU, beat PU, and destroy Colorado and yet bad enough to lose to BGSU and IL?
Maryland - 9,10,9,8,8,5,8,6,7,12 Good enough to be tied with PSU in the fourth quarter, bad enough to lose to PSU by 17 anyway.
Nebraska - 10,11,10,7,7,12,12,14,14,9 Seems to lose a close game every week.
Illinois - 13,8,12,13,13,13,13,13,13,14 Just like that IL is still in the B1GCG race! (Thank you @LittlePig ).
Indiana - 11,12,11,11,11,10,10,10,10,6 For anyone keeping track, the Hoosiers lost to Cincinnati by two TD's. In the B1G they have bigger losses to tOSU (47), PSU (24), and M (22).
Rutgers - 12,14,9,9,9,6,9,7,8,13 Huge game for bowl eligibility coming up this weekend.
Northwestern - 14,13,14,14,14,14,14,12,12,8 Just not their year.

LittlePig · « **Reply #26 on:** November 08, 2021, 07:19:59 PM »

Quote from: grillrat on November 08, 2021, 12:55:05 PM

I think part of the problem here is that the East has 4 REALLY good teams, and 3 REALLY bad teams. The West on the other hand has 4 pretty good teams, 2 decent teams, and only one real stinker.
It makes things kinda hard to figure out. Is the East just really that much better than the West, or have they just had the benefit of feasting on Indiana / Rutgers / Maryland.

The end of this season is going to be bonkers.

The only hole in this theory is PSU is 1-2 against the West and 3-3 overall with games still left against MSU and Mich. That does not scream REALLY good to me. You could argue PSU is REALLY good when Clifford is healthy, but I would make a counter argument that a REALLY good team would have a decent backup QB.

NorthernOhioBuckeye · « **Reply #27 on:** November 09, 2021, 09:14:13 AM »

Ohio State - The recent inability to score consistently when in the red zone, should be concerning. I hope they get this figured out sooner than later.
Michigan - Probably the most consistent team in the B1G this year. Still believe that H2H, they would lose to tOSU.
Penn State - When Clifford is healthy, I believe they are the better than the teams below them.
Wisconsin - They are finally playing up to their potential. If they had played like this all year, they would most likely be #1 in my ranking.
Purdue - Based on recent performance, I would have to rank them ahead of the next 2 teams.
Michigan State - They have been playing with fire the entire season and finally got burned. They are a good team, but I think they got some breaks and lucky bounces. They have 3 more weeks to prove me wrong.
Iowa - I would rank them lower, but the teams below them are worse. Lack of offensive firepower is keeping bad teams in the game for far too long.
Illinois - BB has them playing well. Let's see how long they can keep it up.
Minnesota - I think they may be better than this ranking, but they need to step up and show it.
Nebraska - At some point, they will beat one of the teams ranked higher.
Maryland - Showed some life early against the Lions, but then fell back to Earth.
Rutgers - Finally clawing their way out of the cellar.
Indiana - QB injuries have killed them.
Northwestern - From 1st in the West last year to worst.

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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 10

grillrat

Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 10

FearlessF

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FearlessF

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betarhoalphadelta

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Brutus Buckeye

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FearlessF

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ELA

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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grillrat

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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LittlePig

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NorthernOhioBuckeye

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