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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, preseason

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Honestbuckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
« Reply #28 on: October 16, 2020, 11:54:21 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 16, 2020, 10:23:24 AM
If you keep predicting someone not named Ohio State to be the best teeam in the B1G-E you'll eventually be right but so far you've done this pretty much every year and been wrong pretty much every year, sandbagger. 

So far Ohio State has won or shared the B1G-E title every year that there has been a B1G-E title to win:
  • 2014:  Won it by a game over MSU whom they defeated 49-37 in East Lansing
  • 2015:  Tied MSU one game ahead of Michigan.  tOSU lost the tiebreaker because they lost at home by a FG to MSU but:  Ohio State beat third place Michigan 42-13 while MSU barely escaped them 27-23.  Also, while tOSU's loss was to a very good MSU team, MSU's loss was to a sub-.500 UNL.  The Buckeyes were clearly better overall and just had a bad day at the wrong time.  They still tied for first place. 
  • 2016:  Tied PSU one game ahead of Michigan.  tOSU lost the tiebreaker because they lost on the road by a FG to PSU but:  Ohio State beat third place Michigan (admittedly at home in OT) while PSU got absolutely drilled by the Wolverines (49-10).  PSU also lost OOC to a mediocre Pitt team.  Much like the previous year, the Buckeyes were the best team in the division but they had their bad day at the wrong time.  They still tied for first place. 
  • 2017:  Won it by a game over PSU and MSU.  The Buckeyes beat PSU by a point and drilled MSU 48-3. 
  • 2018:  Tied M two games ahead of PSU.  tOSU won the tiebreaker because they beat M at home 62-39.  This is probably the best year to argue that tOSU was NOT the best team in the B1G-E.  The Buckeyes barely escaped third place PSU (27-26 on the road) while Michigan clobbered them (42-7 albeit at home).  Also, while Michigan's conference loss was to a very good tOSU team, tOSU's was an inexplicable blowout loss to a sub-.500 PU.  On the other side of the coin Michigan's loss to tOSU wasn't very close and they also ended up with two other losses.  One was a respectable road loss by a TD to a very good ND squad but the other was a blowout loss to Florida in the Peach Bowl.  Looking at the whole 13/14 game resumes, it isn't easy to argue that Michigan's 10-3 was better than tOSU's 13-1. 
  • 2019:  Won it by two games over PSU.  The Buckeyes beat PSU 28-17 at home. 
Final rankings (AP):
  • 2014:  #1 tOSU; best other B1G-E team was #5 MSU.  tOSU by 4. 
  • 2015:  #4 tOSU; best other B1G-E team was #6 MSU.  tOSU by 2. 
  • 2016:  #6 tOSU; best other B1G-E team was #7 PSU.  tOSU by 1. 
  • 2017:  #5 tOSU; best other B1G-E team was #8 PSU.  tOSU by 3. 
  • 2018:  #3 tOSU; best other B1G-E team was #14 M.  tOSU by 11. 
  • 2019:  #3 tOSU; best other B1G-E team was #9 PSU.  tOSU by 6. 


You are a welcome sight my friend. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
« Reply #29 on: October 16, 2020, 12:03:57 PM »
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 15, 2020, 10:47:41 AM
This excellent writer posted this today as far as predictions and I will share it because I was already thinking this:
RAMZY: BEWARE THE WOLVERINES

Michigan is going to be a legitimate pain in the ass this season because it has finally been knocked far enough off of the arrogance perch that has kept its self-defeating culture weaponized for the better part of the millennium. No one is going out of their way to overrate them in 2020. COVID has humbled everyone to a degree, which only benefits the B1G program in most need of humbling, And there’s no anointed savior on the roster; just a bunch of guys accustomed to winning the least when it matters the most.


They remind me of Brian Griese’s 1997 Wolverines, minus - and it’s a sizable minus - Charles Woodson. They’ll give everyone their best shot and for the first time in forever, should lack that entitlement chip that’s predictably and consistently knocked them back to earth.
In this same vein, I have been noticing that Michigan, of late, is basically a worst-case-scenario opponent for Ohio State.  In the last 20 years the Wolverines have finished between 8-5 (.615) and 10-3 (.769) 12 times.  That means that in 60% of the years between 2000 and 2019 the Buckeye's final regular season opponent was a team that is good enough that even a NC contender needs to be on their toes for, but wasn't actually good enough to get any significant credit for beating them.  

When you play a team better than that there is a bigger chance of losing, of course, but the trade off is that you get a LOT of credit if you do beat them.  

When you play a team worse than that it hurts your SoS but the trade off is that there is very little chance of losing.  

Teams in that 8-5 through 10-3 range, IMHO, are the worst case scenario because they are neither good enough to provide credit for beating them nor bad enough to be an easy win.  

This is all predicated, of course, on our team being roughly top-10 but for the last 20 years or so, they generally have been.  In the last 20 years Ohio State has finished:
  • #1 twice, 10%
  • top-2 thrice, 15%
  • top-3 six times, 30%
  • top-4 nine times, 45%
  • top-5 13 times, 65%
  • top-6 14 times, 70%
  • top-9 15 times, 75%

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
« Reply #30 on: October 16, 2020, 01:07:13 PM »
It might be easier to consider using medians:

In the last 20 years, Ohio State's median final record was 11.5-2, Michigan's was 9-4.  In the last 20 years Ohio State's median final ranking was #5, Michigan's was #18.  

When an 11-2/#5 type team plays a 9-4/#18 type team nothing good can come of that for the 11-2/#5 team.  
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847badgerfan

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
« Reply #31 on: October 17, 2020, 08:35:50 AM »
Where does UW fall in those metrics?
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Hawkinole

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
« Reply #32 on: October 18, 2020, 12:55:53 AM »
1. Ohio St.
2. Penn St.
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
5. Iowa
6. Minnesota
7. Nebraska
8. Indiana
9. MSU
10. Northwestern
11. Purdue
12. Illinois
13. Maryland
14. Rutgers

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Hawkinole

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
« Reply #33 on: October 18, 2020, 01:58:42 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 08, 2020, 11:25:20 AM
Well, it looks like there will be a season after all.  Thus, we need to do our usual B1G Power Rankings! 

Here is the chart from last year:
[img width=500 height=385.994]https://i.imgur.com/0eliMxY.jpg[/img]
Ohio State and Michigan started out roughly tied for #1 followed by a big gap then PSU, MSU, UW, and Iowa.  Starting in week #2 Ohio State held a slight lead over #2 UW up until they played.  After that the Buckeyes were pretty much alone in first place through the end of the year.  Rutgers was a near-unanimous #14 all year long. 
Other than for Rutgers and Ohio St., the chart is all over the place.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
« Reply #34 on: October 19, 2020, 03:48:48 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 17, 2020, 08:35:50 AM
Where does UW fall in those metrics?
In the last 20 years Wisconsin's median final record was 9.5-3.5 (half way between their 10th best of 9-3 and their 11th best of 10-4).  Their median final ranking was #19 (half way between their 10th best of #17 and their 11th best of #21).  That is almost exactly tied with Michigan on both metrics.  

Since you asked, Wisconsin's final record the past 20 years:

And Wisconsin's final ranking the past 20 years (AP):

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
« Reply #35 on: October 19, 2020, 03:56:05 PM »
Comparing the three on final ranking the last 20 years (2000-2019):
Top-5:

  • 13 tOSU
  • none for UW or M
6-10:
  • 5 UW
  • 4 M
  • 2 tOSU
11-15:
  • 5 M
  • 3 UW
  • 1 tOSU
16-20:
  • 3 M
  • 2 UW
  • 1 tOSU
21-25:
  • 4 UW
  • 1 M
  • none for tOSU
ORV:
  • 3 UW
  • none for tOSU or M
No Votes:
  • 7 M
  • 3 tOSU
  • 3 UW

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
« Reply #36 on: October 20, 2020, 12:52:22 PM »
Please vote today.  I'm going to compile tonight or tomorrow morning and I only have 11 voters so far.  

So far:

  • tOSU is a unanimous #1
  • RU is a near unanimous #14 (only @MaximumSam disagrees).  
  • The other 12 teams  are fairly spread out.  

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
« Reply #37 on: October 21, 2020, 04:27:54 PM »

  • Ohio State:  Until proven otherwise but that could come really fast with a trip to Happy Valley Halloween weekend.  
  • Penn State:  I thought about Wisconsin here but went with Penn State.  
  • Wisconsin:  Best of the West until proven otherwise.  
  • Michigan:  This should be one of the best Little Brown Jug games in decades.  Michigan/Minnesota was a major rivalry around a century ago but the Wolverines pulled so far ahead post-WWII that I don't think anyone alive today can really appreciate this rivalry for what it once was.  
  • Minnesota:  PJ has elevated this program to a point where nobody is surprised to see them #5 in the preseason Power Rankings.  Can he keep them there?  
  • Iowa:  They'll probably go undefeated and win the Division with ease because Iowa never seems to meet expectations.  They are either preseason darlings then hit reality with a thud or preseason after-thoughts and light the world on fire.  
  • Indiana:  Last year they only lost by six to PSU in Happy Valley . . .  The thing is, that isn't really unusual.  In 2018 they only lost to PSU by 5 and M by 11.  It feels like Indiana is perpetually just on the cusp of some REALLY big wins but they never quite get there.  Maybe this year?  They catch a PSU team with good reason to be looking ahead to tOSU the following weekend.  They get Michigan at home coming off of a rivalry game against MSU and looking forward to a challenging game against Wisconsin.  Finally, they get Wisconsin right between divisional rivalry games against Minnesota and Iowa.  I feel like Indiana is good enough to knock off one of those teams if things go right for them.  
  • Northwestern:  The offense can't get worse . . .
  • Nebraska:  Is it me or has their QB been in Lincoln for about a decade?
  • Michigan State:  This feels like a crap-shoot to me.  
  • Purdue:  If they can avoid last year's rash of injuries they could be a really tough out.  
  • Illinois:  They seem like they are improving but it is SLOW going.  
  • Maryland:  Playing in the B1G-E is just too much.  
  • Rutgers:  Last year playing in the MAC-E might have been too much.  Can Schiano make it shine a second time around?  

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
« Reply #38 on: October 21, 2020, 04:44:52 PM »
Results posted.

Major outliers (a vote nobody agreed with and nobody was within one):

  • tOSU:  n/a, everybody voted tOSU #1
  • PSU:  n/a, everybody voted PSU #2 or #3
  • UW:  @847badgerfan voted them #5, everybody else had them #2 or #3.  
  • M:  n/a, everybody had them #4 or #5
  • MN:  n/a:  They had a vote for #3, five votes for #4, four votes for #5, and two votes for #6.  
  • Iowa:  n/a:  They had a vote for #5, eight votes for #6, two votes for #7, and a vote for #8.  
  • Indiana:  n/a:  They had two votes for #6, eight votes for #7, and two votes for #8.  
  • Northwestern:  The Wildcats had the second highest standard deviation with seven votes for #8, two votes for #10, and one vote each for #9, #11, and #12.  
  • Nebraska:  @TyphonInc voted them #5, everybody else had them between #7 and #13.  The Cornhuskers had the highest standard deviation with five votes for #9 and one vote each for #5, #7, #8, #10, #11, #12, and #13.  
  • Michigan State:  The Spartans had five votes for #9, four votes for #11, two votes for #10, and a vote for #8.  
  • Purdue:  @Benthere2 had them at #7, everybody else had them between #10 and #12.  
  • Illinois:  n/a:  everybody voted them between #11 and #13.  
  • Maryland:  @TyphonInc voted them #9.  Everybody else had them between #11 and #14.  
  • Rutgers:  n/a, everybody had them #13 or #14.  All but one of us had them #14.  

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847badgerfan

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
« Reply #39 on: October 21, 2020, 04:53:47 PM »
I'd have them higher if Jack Coan wasn't hurt. Sure, there is a lot of hype with Mertz, but we've seen this movie before.

We'll know a whole lot more about UW after Friday night. 
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Benthere2

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
« Reply #40 on: October 21, 2020, 08:30:04 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2020, 04:53:47 PM
I'd have them higher if Jack Coan wasn't hurt. Sure, there is a lot of hype with Mertz, but we've seen this movie before.

We'll know a whole lot more about UW after Friday night.

ill say we will know a lot more about every team after this weekend.  

i am just glad to see BigTen football again and hope every team stays healthy and we can prove the country how it is done 
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
« Reply #41 on: October 21, 2020, 08:39:05 PM »
As long as the other guy can still hand the ball off to the running back, there shouldn't be all that much of a drop off after Coan. 

This is the Wisconsin offense that we are talking about. Not Oregon. 
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